A low-scoring encounter?published at 13:29 BST
Aston Villa v Burnley (14:00 BST)
Noel Sliney
BBC Sport
Image source, Getty Images
While promoted Burnley’s place in the bottom three is no great surprise and can be mitigated by the fact their four defeats have all come against heavyweight opponents with vast resources, Aston Villa’s slow start was not widely predicted.
Data analysts Opta calculated that Villa had the easiest opening five fixtures in the division – yet their first win didn’t come until the sixth attempt, at home to an obliging Fulham last Sunday. An improved performance in that game, sandwiched between Europa League victories against Bologna and Feyenoord, suggests Villa are starting to snap out of their torpor.
Nonetheless, their attacking shortcomings are clear. Burnley copied Villa’s club colours in 1910 and are mirroring the same issues as the Birmingham side on the pitch so far this season.
These are the two sides with the lowest expected goals (xG) tallies in the Premier League this season. Burnley’s xG, a measure of how many goals a team is expected to score based on the quality of their chances, is 4.53. They have actually outperformed that, scoring six goals, but have had the joint fewest shots and shots on target in the division.
Villa have underperformed their xG by near-enough one goal in the league. More tellingly, they have only had a single shot which had more than a 50% probability of ending in the back of the net. It is not just Villa’s forwards to blame either – their strangely passive build-up play in many games means they take 63.2 touches between shots on average, more than any other side.
