It has taken longer than anticipated, but Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams has reached an inflection point.
Williams, the No. 1 pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, has enjoyed more success in his first season with offensive-minded head coach Ben Johnson. The 23-year-old has completed 60.8 percent of his passes for 2,136 yards, 13 touchdowns and four interceptions, while adding 246 yards on the ground and the first three rushing scores of his career. He has even chipped in with a couple of receptions for 22 yards and a touchdown.
Though Williams isn’t on pace to smash statistical totals from his rookie season, he has at least displayed more consistency, and he’s tied for the league lead with four game-winning drives. With that success in clutch situations, it seems like Williams has the potential to become more consistent as he becomes more comfortable.
“Caleb just needed time actually playing QB in a real system,” said an executive who was granted anonymity by The Athletic so he could speak openly. “Expecting him to come out the gates on fire just wasn’t realistic.”
The Bears (6-3) have won six of their last seven games, including fourth-quarter comebacks in back-to-back wins over the Cincinnati Bengals and New York Giants. No, the Bears haven’t beaten any Super Bowl contenders, but the progress looks like validation of the decision to pair Johnson with Williams — both splashy acquisitions who could revive an organization that hasn’t won a playoff game in 15 years.
Williams’ greatest improvement — a credit to him as well as the supporting cast around him — has been a drastic cutdown on sacks. He was taken down a league-worst 68 times as a rookie, including 38 sacks through nine games. Williams has been sacked only 14 times this season.
“It’s the combination of him learning to get rid of the ball, learning that playing quarterback isn’t about big-game hunting and chucking the ball downfield,” a second executive said. “It’s about hitting the open, easy completion and letting your playmakers make plays.”
Williams entered the NFL as the most-hyped draft prospect since Trevor Lawrence. And as the top quarterback in a class that had six first-round QBs, Williams has faced immense pressure to meet those expectations. With Jayden Daniels’ instant success and Drake Maye’s MVP candidacy this season, there’s been even more heat on Williams to crank up the production. Williams hasn’t reached their level, and there’s no guarantee he will, but the only way to fairly measure his progress is to compare his past performance to what he’s doing now.
Johnson has been terrific for Williams’ development, according to coaches and executives who have studied the Bears’ offense. For starters, Chicago has run the ball markedly better since its bye week, improving from 102.3 yards per outing over its first four games to an astounding 183.4 per-game clip since the bye.
Johnson, who rose to prominence as the Detroit Lions’ offensive architect under Dan Campbell from 2021 to 2024, has also redesigned his passing attack to assist Williams. The reads and progressions have been limited to a confined area of the field to help Williams see everything with improved clarity.
Remember, Williams had to learn how to run a pro-style system after his time in college at Oklahoma and USC, where there wasn’t an emphasis on elements like reading safeties before the snap. Williams’ assimilation was always going to require time, and it didn’t help his cause to join an organization that overhauled the coaching staff during his rookie season.
“Ben Johnson seems really good for him,” a third executive said. “He’s demanded a certain standard, and Caleb is meeting it, which is paying dividends.”
Still, generally speaking, Williams has been at his best when creating plays off-schedule. That’s a valuable quality, but it doesn’t replace the need to play more consistently on time within the structure of the offense. Until that happens, the Bears will never unlock the rhythm that Johnson’s Lions had previously displayed.
“Caleb still has way too much backyard ball in him,” a fourth executive said. “It works out a lot of the time because he is good on the move throwing, but you can’t live that way.”
It’s progress, not perfection. But if the improvement continues, the Bears will be in better hands at quarterback than they’ve been in a long, long time.
Allen unseated
Josh Allen’s reign at No. 1 has come to an end, for now.
Allen wrestled the top spot from Lamar Jackson in Week 14 last season and finally ceded it this week to Matthew Stafford, who leads the NFL with 269.7 yards per game and 25 touchdowns. As detailed last week, Stafford has been playing at an extremely high level this season, arguably the best stretch of his spectacular career.
The rankings are based on current performance, past achievements, future projections and organizational support. As the season progresses, the rankings add more weight to current performance, but there are subjective factors based on each QB’s track record.
Allen’s inconsistent support had become too much to ignore, and his standing at the top was increasingly tenuous over the past two weeks. Far too often, the Bills need him to play a perfect game because the defense or skill players aren’t carrying enough weight. And though Allen has proven capable of playing a perfect game with more consistency than any quarterback over the past year and a half, it’s not sustainable.
So the choice at No. 1 came down to three quarterbacks: Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Stafford. Since Mahomes lost to Allen in his last game, it didn’t make sense to move him up after a bye week, so Stafford, the best QB to this point of the season, got the nod.
Stafford became the fourth signal caller to reach No. 1 since the QB Stock Report debuted in 2024, joining Allen, Mahomes and Jackson.
Kyler in the Cards?
Kyler Murray’s future with the Arizona Cardinals came into focus last week when he was placed on injured reserve to give his foot more time to heal. But the timing of the IR placement, days after it sounded like he was getting closer to returning, was an indication the team could be gearing up for a franchise-altering decision in the offseason.
Murray, 28, signed a five-year, $230.5 million extension in 2022 with the Cardinals’ previous regime. He’s under contract through 2028, and he is owed a guaranteed $36.8 million in 2026. The Cardinals are on the hook for Murray’s $53.26 million cap hit in 2026; it would increase by about $1.5 million if he’s released in March at the start of the league year. That wouldn’t be ideal, but it would be feasible.
If Murray is still on the Cardinals’ roster on the fifth day of the 2026 league year, the team will owe him $19.5 million in guaranteed money in 2027. And based on the structure of the contract, that would virtually lock in Murray through the 2027 season, since releasing him in 2027 would be cost prohibitive.
Essentially, the Cardinals have until free agency in March to release Murray or commit to him through the 2027 season.
There’s an interesting dichotomy at play here, too. General manager Monti Ossenfort has been lauded by his peers for overseeing the Cardinals’ rebuild with patience and discipline. So while they can absorb Murray’s dead money in 2026, a split would act as a break from protocol. Then again, GMs have to make bold decisions, and this could be Ossenfort’s.
In a perfect world, the Cardinals could find a trade partner by eating some of Murray’s money. But if teams know Murray is available in a trade, they should also recognize that he’d likely be released. Opponents won’t be tripping over themselves to help the Cardinals shed cash.
During Murray’s best flashes, he’s a top-10 QB in terms of production. But the No. 1 pick of the 2019 draft hasn’t done it consistently enough, and he has also been injury-prone, which has led to second-half fades.
If Murray is released, he is expected to have suitors, according to several coaches and executives — there’s no denying he’d be an immediate upgrade over a handful of teams’ quarterback situations. There should be competition for Murray’s services on a bridge-style contract.
Don’t assume Murray is done in Arizona, though. Another executive raised a fair question: Who’s the better option?
Daniel Jones is projected to be the top free agent, but it seems far-fetched to think the Indianapolis Colts would let him walk. And unless the Cardinals think they can successfully navigate the reclamation route with someone like Zach Wilson or a trade for Anthony Richardson, or they build a bridge with Kirk Cousins, it’s hard to feel optimistic about the possibilities for an upgrade.
Of course, the draft would also be an option, but the 2026 class is looking worse by the week.
The Cardinals have to decide quickly whether to reset or stick it out with Murray. No matter which path they choose, they’ll be committed to it for quite a while.
