How important is Minnesota’s nonconference showdown against San Francisco at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, this Saturday? We’re going to find out quick.
Niko Medved came out of the gate hot with 27-point and 45-point blowout wins at home against Gardner-Webb and Alcorn State, respectively, to begin his first season as head coach of the Gophers. The momentum carried over into their first road game at Missouri, with only a two-point halftime lead, but things have begun to trend in the wrong direction.
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Minnesota was outscored by 21 points in the second half against the Tigers, and it needed overtime to beat UW-Green Bay at home in the next game. After another hard-fought win at home over Chicago State, there are growing questions about the potential of this year’s team.
Green Bay is rated 325th overall in the latest KenPom.com ratings, and Chicago State is 359th out of 365 Division I teams. The Gophers now face a huge step up in competition against San Francisco, which is rated 85th in the country, as of Friday morning.
The Dons have quietly become one of the most consistent mid-major programs in the country over the last five seasons. Chris Gerlufsen replaced now Florida head coach, Todd Golden, before the 2022-23 season, and they’ve responded with four-straight seasons with 20 or more wins. They’re 4-1 this season with their lone loss coming in a hard-fought six-point battle at Memphis.
Feb 13, 2025; Spokane, Washington, USA; San Francisco Dons head coach Chris Gerlufsen reacts after a play during the first half against the Gonzaga Bulldogs at McCarthey Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images / James Snook-Imagn Images
San Francisco is led by junior point guard Ryan Beasley, who averages a team-high 14.0 points per game, and a trio of wings, Mookie Cook, Tyrone Riley IV and David Fuchs, who all average more than 10 points per game this season. They were voted to finish third in the preseason West Coast Conference (WCC) poll, and they look like a squad that would give any Power Conference team a tough game on any floor.
Nobody expected Medved to hit the ground running, and having Minnesota competing for Big Ten titles in year one. But the result of Saturday’s game could have a big impact on the outlook of the 2025-26 season.
According to KenPom.com, Minnesota has played the third-easiest schedule in all of college basketball up to this point of the season. Four of their first five opponents were outside the top 300 in those ratings. Starting with Saturday’s game, all five of the next opponents are rated inside the top 85. We’re going to find out very fast if their last two games were just playing down to their opponents, or a sign of more struggles to come. A loss on Saturday could start an avalanche or be the first moment in an early-season run.
The Gophers matchup relatively well with the Dons, who have only four players listed at 6-foot-9 or taller, three of whom play more than 10 minutes per game. They’re not far apart in rebounds per game, as Minnesota averages 42.2 and San Francisco is at 41.0.
I expect this game to be a back-and-forth battle that will come down to success from the three-point and free-throw line. San Francisco is 34th in the country at 39.7% as a team from long range, and Minnesota is currently tied for 329th at 27.3% as a team. That number makes me pick the Dons.
