We have a 12-game slate in Week 11, with lock at the usual 1:00 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud: Drake Maye ($6,900) New England Patriots (-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (51.5 Total)
With Josh Allen off the Week 12 main slate, we have Josh Allen Jr., AKA Drake Maye, holding down the top spot in our projections. Maye’s salary has risen to the point where his typical mid-20s DraftKings score probably won’t win you a tournament, but he’s in an elite spot this week that gives him an excellent chance to score well above his typical range.
The MVP candidate can get it done through the air or with his legs, with 20 passing touchdowns plus 285 rushing yards and two scores on the ground. New England has been one of the top Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) teams in the league this season, ranking sixth — right behind the Bengals at fifth.
The Bengals are both an aggressive offense and the NFL’s worst defense, which makes for an elite combination for opposing offenses. This game should be fast, and the Patriots should be extremely efficient. While New England is favored by seven at the moment, there are also rumors that Joe Burrow ($6,500) will be back for the Bengals, which likely pushes the total up and the spread tighter if he returns.
With this game already featuring the highest total on the board, Burrow’s return would push it into elite territory. That just might be the deciding factor for me on if I roster Maye heavily this week.
Value: Jacoby Brissett ($5,300) Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (47.5 Total)
We’ve now had five weeks of Jacoby Brissett starting for the Cardinals and five games with at least 20 DraftKings points. That was especially impressive last week, when he was able to get there without #1 WR Marvin Harrison — and a reassuring sign now that Harrison has been ruled out for Week 12 as well.
A Brissett triple stack took down the milly maker last week, and he’s still priced at just $5,300. At the rate things are going, by the time Brissett’s salary rises to the point that rostering him is a tough decision, Kyler Murray will be back for the Cardinals. Either way, he’s far too cheap for a matchup with the Jaguars, who rank 27th in points allowed to quarterbacks.
“Slight home underdog” might also be the sweet spot for QB production, with our Trends Tool showing that they outperform expectation when the game total is at least 45:
Plus, a thin running back room has led to the Cardinals being one of the pass-heaviest teams in recent weeks, ranking fourth in PROE since Week 10, and Brissett attempting 40 or more passes in three of his five starts. That gives him a volume-based floor at worst, making him a cash-game lock. He’s the clear leader in Pts/Sal projection.
Quick Hits
Patrick Mahomes ($6,800): Mahomes is tied with Maye for the best median projection on the slate, with a slightly lower ceiling. He and the Chiefs have shifted to a more pass-centric approach since getting healthy at wide receiver and now have a potential shootout on their hands with the fast-paced Colts. Mahomes has struggled the past two weeks in road games against the Bills and Broncos, but a home game against the Colts might be the perfect spot to get back on track.
Jalen Hurts ($6,600): Hurts and the offense had little to do with their Sunday Night Football win over the Lions, who were even able to stop the “tush push” on multiple occasions. They have a drastically different matchup this week, against the Cowboys’ 31st-ranked defense. The Eagles offense has struggled most of the season, but there’s no better get-right spot than Dallas, making this a solid buy-low opportunity.
Jared Goff ($6,000): Goff completed just 14 of 37 pass attempts against the Eagles last week, but that was outdoors against a tough defense. He’s back at home against the Giants, where his notorious indoor/outdoor splits are in his favor. The one downside might be that the Lions could run the ball all over the Giants and make the passing attack an afterthought. However, the loss of Sam LaPorta makes the passing offense more concentrated, so I’ll have some exposure to Goff stacks. He and the Lions have the slate’s highest team total.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
