Oregon is a massive favorite against James Madison, but here’s the hidden advantage they’re really getting |
A friend once taught me that in the mud-slinging, smack-talking world of highfalutin — non-Ivy, but still elite — East Coast education “JMU” doesn’t actually stand for James Madison University.
The derisive definition of that particular abbreviation? “Just Missed University of Virginia.”
Ba-ZING.
In the College Football Playoff, the Oregon Ducks just missed Tulane. Or even, The U: Miami.
But thanks to a wacky championship weekend and a still-evolving system, Oregon was given a postseason gift.
It will be Ducks vs. Dukes on Dec. 20.
And while this is far from the spicy matchup fans — and, OK, journalists — dreamed of when the CFP rolled out its 12-team system replete with on-campus games in the first round, this is the best-case scenario for the Ducks.
Competitively, this feels like the Ducks 2024 Fiesta Bowl pairing with Conference USA champion Liberty. The Flames were a good story, sneaking into a showcase bowl game but faced a staggering talent disparity.
Final score: Oregon 45, Liberty 6.
Here in 2025, the Ducks are more than 20-point favorites against the scrappy Sun Belt champions, hailing from Harrisonburg, Virginia in the lush Shenandoah Valley. JMU’s Bridgeforth Stadium seats just shy of 25,000 people. The Dukes won FCS championships in 2004 and 2016. This is only their third year playing in the FBS.
That’s a great story.
Statistically, JMU boasts one of the nation’s top defenses and a top-20 offense but has not beaten a Power Four opponent.
How did we get here? The Ducks seemed set for a matchup with Tulane before Virginia went and lost to unranked, five-loss Duke in overtime of the ACC championship game, booting a spot in the CFP and rolling out the red carpet for a second Group of Five school to reach the playoff.
Duke did the Dukes’ bidding and JMU got payback for generations of in-state putdowns.
Who just missed, now?
Entering Saturday, the Ducks had an outside shot at moving up to the top four and a first round bye, which would have meant going nearly five weeks between games. However, easy conference championship game wins by Texas Tech and Georgia dispelled that possibility.
It’s better this way.
A year ago, the Ducks were guinea pigs in a nascent system that taught us that a first-round bye can be more curse than blessing and that going undefeated essentially goes unrewarded.
After beating Penn State in a thrilling Big Ten championship game last Dec. 7, the Ducks sat idly for more than three weeks before stepping into the lion trap of a New Year’s Day matchup at the Rose Bowl with Ohio State.
And while I don’t know that playing a tune-up game a few days before Christmas was going to save the Ducks from the Buckeyes that day in Pasadena, history has shown that there is value in knocking the cobwebs off. All four teams with byes – including the overseeded Arizona State and Boise State — lost after collecting their free pass to the quarterfinals.
So now it is Texas Tech that has to sit.
The Red Raiders throttled BYU for a second time on Saturday, and must now sit and wait until the day after the big ball has dropped, the champers has been quaffed and Auld Lang Syne has been sung, when they will almost certainly face the Ducks at the Orange Bowl.
The Ducks’ postseason path is a treacherous one. To win the national championship they would have to endure cross-country travel in three consecutive weekends and notch wins over the likes of Texas Tech, Indiana and Ohio State.
Oregon drawing JMU likely won’t help the rest of us answer the bigger questions about the Ducks’ true potential this season in the way that a matchup with Miami, Alabama or Notre Dame would have.
There are of course downsides to playing an extra playoff game. The risk of injuries, obviously. But the Ducks’ most significant setback this season — freshman wide receiver Dakorien Moore’s knee injury that kept him out of the final four games — occurred during a mid-week practice.
So you have to live with that reality while embracing the opportunity that this matchup provides the Ducks.
A matchup against JMU gives Oregon the best of both worlds: An almost certain spot in the CFP quarterfinals as well as an opportunity knock the cobwebs off before things get serious.
The Dukes are not a serious threat to upending Oregon’s playoff path.
I say that realizing it is just as disrespectful as anything a Virginia alum could come up with.
