Protests fueled by crippling economic conditions have swept across Iran’s provinces, as authorities revert to their tested playbook of cracking down without offering viable solutions to grievances driving public anger.
Millions of Iranians are grappling with rampant inflation and a plummeting currency, as thousands took to the streets in demonstrations that turned violent after the deployment of government security forces.
What began last month as organized protests in Tehran’s bazaars and universities has gradually spread to cities nationwide. Experts said the leaderless and uncoordinated movement turned violent as economic protests intertwined with political ones.
“This feels different because it’s about the people’s buying power and people really can’t afford anything,” said a 30-year-old Tehran resident who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Prices keep going up almost hour-by-hour at this point, but how it ends no one really knows. … Everyone feels worried.”
When shopkeepers in the narrow streets of Tehran’s Grand Bazaar protested the government’s failing economic policies last week, their chants rattled the regime.
Exacerbating the situation, the central bank decision last week to end a program allowing some importers to access cheaper US dollars compared to the rest of the market – a decision that led shopkeepers to increase prices.
Prices of basic goods like cooking oil and chicken dramatically spiked overnight and some products vanished all together. The volatility pushed the bazaaris to close shop, a drastic measure for a group traditionally supportive of the Islamic Republic.
After days of protests and crackdown, the reformist-ruled government attempted to alleviate the pressure by offering direct cash handouts – almost $7 per month, saying at the same time that it alone cannot solve the crisis.
“We should not expect the government to handle all of this alone,” President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a televised speech Monday.
Iranian provinces as far west as Ilam, a Kurdish-majority region bordering Iraq, and Lorestan, have emerged as restive hotspots. Fueled by ethnic division and poverty, crowds set fire to the streets and chanted “Death to Khamenei,” directly challenging Iran’s Supreme Leader, who holds ultimate authority over the nation’s religious and state affairs.
The city became a focal point this week after wounded protesters were taken to a hospital, only for security forces to subsequently raid the facility and arrest them in an incident that sparked widespread condemnation from human rights groups and prompted the government to promise an investigation.
Iranian state affiliated Fars news agency said 950 police forces and 60 personnel from the paramilitary Basij force have been injured in the protests mostly in confrontations with “rioters” in western provinces “equipped with firearms, grenades, and weapons.”
People in more than 100 cities have taken to the streets since demonstrations began 11 days ago, including the capital Tehran.
At least 38 people have been killed and over 2,000 arrested in the ensuing crackdown, human rights organizations based outside Iran claimed. CNN could not independently verify the numbers of those killed and arrested, and Iranian state news organizations have sometimes reported individual deaths without reporting a comprehensive tally.
The ongoing protests are the biggest since the large scale and deadly protests that were sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini while in the custody of the religious police in 2022.
This time, the bazaaris, a powerful force for change in Iran’s history and one that is seen as loyal to the regime, began the protests.
The enduring alliance between the bazaaris and the clergy in Iran had the shopkeepers play a crucial role as kingmaker across Iran’s history. It was their support to those very clergymen that eventually helped the Islamic Revolution of 1979 succeed, giving the rebels a financial backbone that led to the fall of the Shah, or monarch.
“For more than 100 years of Iranian history, bazaaris have been key actors in all of Iran’s major political movements. … Many observers do believe that the bazaaris are some of the most loyal to the Islamic Republic,” said Arang Keshavarzian, associate professor of Middle Eastern and Islamic studies at New York University and author of “Bazaar and State in Iran,” told CNN.
Their role as a major political force has since become more symbolic, but the impact of fluctuations in currency on their business is what led them to spark the protests that have since turned deadly.
Authorities have also sought to differentiate between economic protesters and those calling for regime change, branding the latter as “rioters” and foreign backed “mercenaries” while pledging a tougher crackdown against them.
The exiled son of Iran’s former monarch, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has positioned himself as a viable alternative to the ruling regime, declaring support for the protests and issuing direct calls for coordinated nationwide action. Pro-monarchy chants have been heard in videos from the demonstrations, though the extent of monarchist support across the country remains unclear.
The current protests also take place under rising foreign threats. Just six months ago, Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran for the first time, with US President Donald Trump raising the prospects of new attacks just last week, just days after meeting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
During his campaign, Pezeshkian positioned himself as a champion of the working class, promising economic relief through reduced government intervention in the currency market while also blaming US sanctions, corruption, and excessive money printing.
But corruption across all parts of government, mismanagement of funds and the convergence of environmental problems and stagnant leadership has the government on the brink.
More than a year after he was voted in, the very working class he vowed to protect and the middle class that form the backbone of the Iranian society, are struggling.
External factors like crippling sanctions and a potential new war with the United States and Israel, has left the state paranoid, and the population anxious.
The ongoing protest are the biggest public challenge to the regime since the 12-day war with Israel in June, and since Iranians demonstrated the killing of Mahsa Amini, the young woman who was arrested for not abiding by the dress code, the state now struggles to provide any tangible steps that could prevent an eventual complete dysfunction.
Experts say that without a viable alternative to the current ruling system, protests are unlikely to instigate regime change, yet the widespread unrest underscores the profound crises confronting Iran’s government.
“None of Iran’s political leaders have a blueprint to get Iran out the crises,” Keshavarzian told CNN.
“The only tool that the Islamic Republic truly has left is coercion and force. People have tried different methods to air their views,” he added. “But over the past 15 years large segments of the population have lost trust in the regime and don’t believe they are able and willing to actually listen to them and address their grievances and interests,” he said.
