Labour falls to fourth in Wales, new polling shows – as Plaid Cymru surge ahead of Reform
By Hannah Woodward, political news editor
Plaid Cymru has surged to 37% in Wales, pulling well ahead of Reform UK who has dropped to 24%, in the first Senedd poll of 2026.
The survey for ITV Wales also shows the Green Party climbing into third place for the first time on 13%, while Labour plunges to fourth with just 10%.
This opening poll of 2026 lands only four months before voters head to the ballot box in May, setting the stage for a dramatically reshaped contest.
Plaid Cymru said this poll shows the election is a two horse race between Plaid and Reform.
“More and more people are realising they face a choice between two very different futures, and are choosing to back Plaid Cymru’s positive vision for Wales,” a party spokesperson said.
“That’s because we are the only party that will always stand up for Wales, with new leadership and serious plans to fix our NHS and help people with the cost-of-living crisis.
“Reform is focused on chasing headlines and getting Nigel Farage closer to Number 10 – not on Wales’s future.
“There is real momentum behind Plaid Cymru, but we are taking nothing for granted. After decades in charge, Labour is finished, but the future of Wales is still to be written.”
The results are as follows:
- Plaid 37% (+7)
- Reform 23 (-6)
- Green 13 (+7)
- Labour 10 (-4)
- Conservatives 10 (-1)
- Lib Dem 5 (-1)
- Other 2 (-2)
- Source: ITV Wales
A Reform UK spokesman told Sky News: “In May, the clear choice is between Plaid, who have backed Labour up again and again, or Reform, who represent real change here in Wales.”
The results from this poll signal monumental shifts in Welsh politics and perhaps wider UK politics.
Labour has been failing in Welsh and UK polls for some time, but this is the first time three non-traditional parties are leading in Wales.
Plaid has led a series of recent Welsh polls, but would still have required backing from another party to reach the 49‑seat threshold for a Senedd majority.
If this recent poll was replicated in May’s election, it would point to Rhun ap Iorwerth as First Minister – though still short of a majority.
Greens take root in Wales
Until recently, Labour’s consistent third‑place position made them the most likely partner.
This new poll marks a clear shift, suggesting for the first time the Greens could emerge as Plaid’s most viable route to support.
Reacting to the poll, Wales Green Party leader Anthony Slaughter said: “This poll reflects the enthusiasm we’re picking up on the doorstep, and with our campaign days feeling more like rallies…. It’s clear that Greens could hold the balance of power, putting in a position to make the next government braver, and deliver the bold changes we’re talking about.”
Meanwhile, Zack Polanski told Sky News: “When I was elected, I said the Green Party wanted to replace Labour. This is exactly what I meant.”
A Labour source said: “We’re not taking voters for granted, and we’re focussing on providing a positive offer for the future.
“All eyes should be on Plaid and how they pay for their fantasy politics. Just this morning they were back to pushing their plan for independence while Welsh Labour is focusing on making people’s lives fairer after years of Tory austerity.
“We’re not gambling on everything we’ve built for pledges with no plan.”
