Along those same lines, there were a few successful movement plays against the Texans defense that the Patriots could try to replicate. By moving the pocket, it could neutralize Houston’s pass rush and allow Maye to impact the game with his legs. The Steelers hit a chunk gain with a bootleg keeper, running post-cross against the Texans cover-three zone, and the crosser uncovered for an explosive. In Week 18, the Colts had some success with their RPOs, getting QB Riley Leonard on the edge with a run and pass option to move the chains.
If all else fails, the other wrinkles the Pats could throw at the Texans is trying to force them into base personnel or taking advantage of their aggressive pass rush with screen passes Houston only plays base defense on 25.6% of their defensive snaps, but they’ll match jumbo packages (six OL) with base defense most of the time. When offenses throw out of six offensive line packages, the Texans are just 21st in pass EPA (+0.20). The Texans also rank 30th in EPA against screen passes, allowing a league-high nine explosive plays to screen passes this season.
Between throwing deep passes, screens, Maye’s mobility, and potentially getting favorable matchups versus base defense, there are some answers for the Patriots against a terrific Texans defense.
Defense Key: Zone & Cover Zero Blitzes Could be the Answer vs. Texans QB C.J. Stroud
Moving over to the other side of the ball, Caley installed a sound system in his first season as the Texans offensive coordinator, borrowing from both McDaniels and Rams HC Sean McVay.
From a personnel perspective, Houston’s offensive line has been a weak link, with the Texans ranking 30th in pass-blocking win rate and last in run-blocking win rate. Like the Chargers, their issues in the trenches have sunk their run game, with Houston ranking 30th in rush EPA. Although the status of Pro Bowl CB Christian Gonzalez (concussion) is uncertain, Texans star receiver Nico Collins is also in jeopardy of missing Sunday’s game due to his head injury.
At the skill positions, rookie RB Woody Marks has emerged as a solid back and WR Christian Kirk had a monster Wild Card performance (8 catches, 144 yards, TD). Houston also has good size at receiver with rookie Jayden Higgins (6-4) and third-year pro Xavier Hutchinson (6-3), who use their size well to box out defenders at the catch point, and TE Dalton Schultz is in a similar mold to Patriots TE Hunter Henry.
Schematically, Caley’s run game is mostly McVay’s, with Houston majoring in inside zone, duo, and outside zone runs. The Texans don’t use many two-back sets or pullers on power schemes, so it’s mostly zone blocking or duo, where they just try to run you over with double teams. They then run duo-actions to hit in-breaking routes over the middle of the field and bootlegs, moving the pocket at the fifth-highest rate in the league (11.7%) – that’s all McVay stuff.
In the drop-back passing game, there isn’t much of a vertical element to Houston’s offense, with most of Stroud’s attempts going to routes with horizontal breaks (in-breaking or out-breaking). Caley also seems to have blended McDaniels and McVay’s bunch concepts, with the Texans using condensed bunches on 22.4% of their pass plays (second in the NFL). Between the in-breaking routes off play-action and bunch concepts, Stroud is one of the most efficient passers in the league against man coverage (+0.18 EPA/play, fifth in the NFL).
