The Patriots are heading to the Mile High City to take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday afternoon.
For head coach Mike Vrabel, Sunday’s conference title game represents one of his final obstacles. Vrabel has won division titles, he has won Coach of the Year (2021), and he was one win away from the Super Bowl as Titans head coach in 2019, falling to Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and the eventual Super Bowl champs. Obviously, there’s no shame in losing to an all-time great like Mahomes. Still, Vrabel has a golden opportunity to get over the hump and bring his team to the Super Bowl two weeks from Sunday’s AFC title game in Santa Clara. For Vrabel, who might win his second AP Coach of the Year at the NFL Honors during Super Bowl week, it sure would be sweeter to be in San Fran for other reasons.
In a stunning turn of events, starting QB Bo Nix suffered a season-ending ankle injury late in last Sunday’s overtime win over the Bills in the divisional round. Therefore, the Patriots will face backup QB Jarrett Stidham rather than Nix on Sunday.
Along with it being a crazy coincidence that their former draft pick will start against the Patriots, we haven’t seen anything like this before. Stidham, who hasn’t started a regular-season game since 2023, has four career starts, which are the fewest for any quarterback entering a conference championship game in NFL history. The only close comparison is Jeff Hostetler starting for the Giants for an injured Phil Simms, including winning Super Bowl XXV. Hostetler had five career starts heading into the 1990 NFC title game and was the Giants starter at that point in the season (Simm’s injury happened in Week 15, not eight days before conference championship weekend). For those who are thinking it, Nick Foles started 36 career games before he took over for the Eagles in 2017 so this is truly a historic scenario for Denver and Stidham.
That said, we wouldn’t expect the Broncos to be a pushover. For starters, Denver’s defense is terrific and has kept them in close games all year (12-2 in one-score games), while DC Vance Joseph’s scheme is extremely impressive. The Broncos finished the regular season fourth in scoring defense, fifth in DVOA, and led the league in sacks (68). This is as talented and well-coordinated a unit as any defense the Patriots have faced this season. If he hits the layups that Payton schemes open, doesn’t turn it over, and Denver’s defense does its part, the game will be competitive with Stidham under center.
However, the big unknown with Stidham is how the inexperienced backup will play in the clutch. With the Denver defense keeping them in it, Nix has shown impressive moxie in big moments. Nix has orchestrated a league-high seven game-winning drives and five fourth-quarter comebacks. If the Patriots can play with a lead in the second half and force Stidham to be the hero, you like their chances.
Let’s break down the chess match in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game vs. the Broncos at 3 p.m. ET.
Offense Key: Prepping a Pressure Plan for the Broncos Highly-Ranked Pass Rush
Regardless of what stat you’re looking at, the Broncos defense ranks near the top of the league in every pass-rush metric: second in pressure rate (40.7%), third in win rate (45%), and first in sacks (68).
Denver disrupts opposing quarterbacks with a combination of aggressive play-calling and talent along the defensive line, led by two-time Pro Bowl EDGE Nik Bonitto (14.0 sacks, fifth in NFL) and first-team All-Pro DT Zach Allen (73 total pressures, most among DTs). On the opposite side, edge rusher Jonathon Cooper is no slouch, while veterans John Franklin-Myers, D.J. Jones, and Malcolm Roach can all beat interior blocks.
The Broncos also have the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in CB Patrick Surtain II anchoring the backend. Surtain is flanked by underrated nickel CB Ja’Quan McMillan, field CB Riley Moss, playmaking S Talano Hufanga, and rangy free safety P.J. Locke. At the second level, LB Dre Greenlaw and high-motor LB Alex Singleton are a solid tandem. In all, Denver has a trio of Pro Bowlers and three All-Pro nominees – it’s a talented roster.
As for the scheme, Joseph is having the time of his life drawing up exotic pressures, match coverages, and man-blitzes. Denver plays the third-highest rate of man coverage (39.4%) and blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league (33.7%). Joseph is also on record saying that the Broncos don’t play much spot-drop zone coverage, where defenders are just defending an area of the field. Instead, they’re matching routes in their zones, so everything has man principles. The combination of talent and scheme has produced some gaudy stats for the Broncos defense: No. 1 in explosive play rate (6.7%), No. 1 in red-zone defense (42.6%), No. 2 on third down (33.8%), and No. 8 in total EPA. We can go on and on.
Before we get into the film, let’s say the quiet part out loud about the Patriots: QB Drake Maye has to do a better job protecting the ball this week. Maye has six fumbles through two playoff games, and with Denver’s ability to pressure the QB, the Broncos are going to be hunting for the ball after forcing five takeaways last week. Turning the ball over is an easy way to even the playing field against a backup quarterback. Having said that, Maye didn’t play to his MVP standard in the first two playoff games, so maybe he’s due.
Along those lines, giving Maye answers against pressure and giving him clues so that he knows where the pressure is coming from is key. The best way to do that is to have a sound pressure plan, especially for Denver’s schemed rushes, such as creepers or simulated pressures, which they use often (4.1%). Creepers are when unexpected rushers blitz while expected rushers drop off the line, creating the deception of a blitz while maintaining numbers in coverage, whereas simulated pressures are when you show all-out pressure with five-plus rushers on the line, then cycle in and out of blitzes. Due to all their scheming, the Broncos produce an unblocked pressure rate of 9.8% (third in the NFL).
