Winter Storm With ‘Catastrophic’ South Ice, Heavy Snow From Texas To Northeast To Affect Over 230 Million
Southern Plains Winter Storm Forecast
A historic, widespread, long-lasting winter storm is getting underway that will blast parts of the South with destructive ice and heavy snow for millions from the Plains to the Midwest and Northeast. This storm will lead to widespread dangerous travel for days and “catastrophic” ice accumulations in the South could lead to widespread power outages and tree damage, according to NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
The storm has been named Winter Storm Fern by The Weather Channel. According to The Weather Company forecasters, Fern could affect over 230 million in the U.S. with significant snow and/or ice, two-thirds of the nation’s estimated population. Either heavy snow or ice is forecast for 34 states from the storm, from Arizona to the Midwest, South and New England. Its impacts will linger for some time after the storm ends.
How Much Ice?
The map below shows the chance of at least one-quarter inch of ice accumulation during the storm, a threshold where tree damage and power outages ramp up quickly, in addition to making roads ice-covered and hazardous.
Areas in the darker purple contours may see even higher accumulations that could lead to extensive tree damage and numerous, widespread power outages. That higher threat of destructive ice covers parts of 12 states, from Texas to Virginia, including cities such as Shreveport, Memphis, Nashville, the northeast side of the Atlanta metro area, Greenville-Spartanburg, Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham and Richmond.
Winds during the storm could add even more stress to trees and power lines weighed down by ice, increasing the damaging potential of this ice storm.
If you’re in the areas contoured in the map below, you need to prepare for the potential of a power outage that could last as long as a few days, especially considering cold air will plunge into the region during and after the storm.
(MORE: Things To Know About Ice Storms | What Ice Accumulations Mean For Impacts)
How Much Snow?
A broad swath from the southern Rockies, the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma to the Ohio Valley and Northeast will likely pick up at least 6 inches of snow through Monday. Many of these areas have a good chance of measuring a foot or more of snow, as well, as shown by the darkest purple and pink contours in the map below.
This could lead to dangerous travel conditions in these areas, with some roads possibly become impassable by this weekend, especially in the southern portion of heaviest snow swath.
This is also likely to trigger significant flight delays and cancellations, especially Sunday into Monday at the major East Coast hubs.
If you have travel plans in these areas, we strongly urge you to either postpone or cancel them.
This has the potential to be heaviest snowstorm since early February 1998 in Louisville, Kentucky, only the third one-foot-plus snowstorm of record in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and the first one-foot-plus snowstorm in 10 years in both Philadelphia and Washington, D.C.
Winter Storm Alerts
Winter storm alerts have been issued by the National Weather Service from the southern Rockies to the East Coast, covering dozens of major cities including Dallas, Houston, Nashville, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia, New York City and Boston.
Impacts are expected to be most severe in areas where winter storm warnings and ice storm warnings will eventually be issued. Here’s what these warnings mean:
Winter storm warning: A high expectation of disruptive, significant snow, ice and/or sleet. Mixed precipitation is likely in a lot of places. Power outages are expected and travel could be impossible.
Ice storm warning: A high expectation that ice/freezing rain will be the main precipitation type and that it will be disruptive and damaging. Power outages are expected and travel will be impossible. Some of the most significant damage this weekend will come from these zones.
Pay attention to the timing of these alerts in The Weather Channel app.
(MORE: Winter Storm Fern Maps Tracker)
How Bad Could It Get?
This index from the National Weather Service attempts to quantify the impacts from winter weather, taking into account factors such as snowfall, accumulated snow on rooftops, ice accumulation, the potential for a flash freeze, and blowing snow. Not all factors are in play in a given winter storm.
Descriptions of each level of severity can be found here.
This doesn’t yet cover the entirety of Winter Storm Fern’s duration.
Timing And Cities Impacted
Friday: Sleet and freezing rain will increase in the Southern Plains, including parts of Oklahoma and northern and western Texas. Snow will also begin in the Rockies and Central Plains and then push east later in the day.
Cities: Lubbock, Dodge City
Friday night: This wintry mess of snow, sleet and ice will continue to sag southward in the Southern Plains and spread into the Mississippi Valley as far east as parts of Tennessee and northern Mississippi.
Cities: Albuquerque, Denver, Wichita, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Dallas, Austin, Kansas City, Little Rock, Memphis
Saturday: Snow, sleet and ice will sink farther south in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, while it picks up in the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, Kentucky, Tennessee, northwest Alabama, West Virginia, Virginia, parts of the Carolinas and perhaps far northern Georgia.
Cities: Albuquerque, Lubbock, Oklahoma City, Dallas, Austin, Little Rock, Shreveport, Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Asheville, Roanoke, Kansas City, St. Louis, Louisville, Indianapolis, Cincinnati
Saturday night: This wintry mess of ice and sleet will sag even farther south toward parts of southeast Texas, southwestern Louisiana and Mississippi, while intensifying from southern Virginia to parts of the Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Snow will spread into the mid-Atlantic states and intensify while continuing farther west in the Ohio Valley, mid-Mississippi Valley, Ozarks and parts of Oklahoma, Texas and New Mexico. Some snow may fall as far north as parts of the southern Great Lakes.
Cities: Lubbock, Houston, Dallas, Oklahoma City, Little Rock, Shreveport, Jackson, Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, Atlanta (especially northeast metro), Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Greenville-Spartanburg, Richmond, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Louisville, Cleveland, Cincinnati
Sunday: Wintry precipitation will end in Texas, Oklahoma and most of the lower Mississippi Valley by midday, but will persist in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, piedmont of Virginia and the Carolinas and the Northeast. Heavy snow is likely in the Northeast and Ohio Valley. Rain and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong, will rumble across parts of the Deep South.
Cities: Houston, Oklahoma City, Little Rock, St. Louis, Chicago, Shreveport, Jackson, Memphis, Nashville, Indianapolis, Louisville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Atlanta (especially northeast metro), Greenville-Spartanburg, Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York City, Hartford, Boston
Sunday night and Monday: Snow will continue throughout much of the Northeast, but could mix with sleet, ice or change to rain near the coast from southern New England and Long Island to the Delmarva Peninsula as a nor’easter moves along the East Coast.
Snow may also linger in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Appalachians. Areas of sleet and/or freezing rain may also linger in parts of Virginia and the Carolinas before either changing to rain or ending before sunrise Monday morning.
Some snow is expected to linger in parts of the Northeast, especially New England and upstate New York, on Monday, along with some gusty winds as the nor’easter gradually moves away.
Rain and thunderstorms may rumble across parts of the Southeast from the Florida Panhandle to parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.
Cities: Louisville, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Greenville-Spartanburg, Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Richmond, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York City, Hartford, Boston
When Will It Thaw Out?
Compounding and prolonging the impacts from the storm is a strong push of cold arctic air that will threaten many daily cold records across parts of the South, Midwest and East.
Once the storm is over, daytime highs might not climb above freezing until Tuesday or Wednesday in areas covered with ice or snow in the South. And morning lows may plunge into the single digits, teens and 20s in these affected areas through Tuesday or Wednesday.
This could leave those without power shivering long after the storm. We have important tips on how to cope with a winter power outage here and here.
While increasing sunshine should help thaw some snow or ice during the day, plunging temperatures after sunset may lead to refreezing on roads and several days of slippery travel into early next week.
