Snow, sleet, ice expected to lay down ‘glacier’ on Virginia ahead of bitterly cold temperatures

This winter is continuing last winter’s playbook, with another snow-to-ice “glacier” storm similar to those of early January and February 2025 that will leave a crunchy shell of snow-sleet-ice on most of Virginia heading into a week of extremely cold temperatures.

An upper-level low-pressure system moving across the southern half of the U.S. is lifting abundant moisture into and over a mass of very cold Arctic air advancing southward. The result will be a large area of wintry mayhem from Texas to New England, extending into the South. The widespread snow and ice will be followed by a reinforcement of bitterly cold Arctic air that likely brings below-zero and single-digit lows to much of Virginia by Tuesday morning.

Every inch of the commonwealth is expected to see at least some wintry precipitation Saturday evening through the predawn hours of Monday morning, with most of the state seeing impactful totals of snow, sleet and freezing rain that will stall travel and raise the potential of scattered to numerous power outages, especially where ice is the thickest. Gov. Abigail Spanberger declared a state of emergency ahead of the winter storm on Thursday to mobilize resources for response.

This map shows projected statewide ice accretion totals for the weekend winter storm as of Friday afternoon. Ice accretions of ¼ inch are more generally considered to have potential for tree limb damage and scattered power outages, with ½ inch or more producing more widespread power outages. Courtesy of National Weather Service.

The ocean’s influence will raise temperatures above freezing in the Hampton Roads area after some early snow and wintry mix, and the southwest tip of Virginia may see a brief surge of temperatures above freezing moving out of Tennessee by Sunday afternoon and early evening, but the rest of the state will stay below freezing — teens and 20s for most — as what would be about 1.5 to 2.5 inches’ worth of rainfall pours into the Arctic chill.

What form that moisture will take will vary by time and place. Early on, on Saturday afternoon and evening, most of it will be snow, but sleet, and then freezing rain, will begin eroding into the snow area from the south and southwest, as milder air moves in 1 to 3 miles above the surface. Precipitation, mostly snow at first, will begin moving into the southwest tip of Virginia near midday Saturday, spread to near Roanoke and the Blue Ridge by sundown, and then overtake nearly all of the commonwealth by midnight.

Eventually, most of the state will see at least some sleet mixed into the snow, with most of the southern half to two-thirds of the state getting an icy glaze of freezing rain on top of prior snow and sleet accumulation. The ice may grow to over half an inch thick for some near the North Carolina line and northeastward through the Richmond metro area. Fairly widespread problems with breaking tree limbs and power lines typically begin when there is about a quarter-inch of ice accretion.

The pink represents winter storm warnings stretching from Texas to New England, including all of Virginia, as a large storm system sprays moisture into Arctic air advancing southward, leading to widespread snow, sleet and freezing rain over much of the central and eastern U.S. Courtesy of National Weather Service.

Snowfall totals, counting sleet, appear likely to reach 5-10 inches for most of the state north of a line from roughly Wytheville to Richmond, with a few higher amounts northwest of Interstate 81. Elsewhere, generally 2 to 5 inches is expected to accumulate before ice glazes it over, perhaps a little less snow in the southwest and southeast corners.

Sleet — bouncy ice bits caused by rain aloft falling into a deep pool of cold air on the way down and refreezing — plays an outsized role in this winter storm event compared to many. Typically only a transitional precipitation type falling briefly during a change between snow and rain or freezing rain, a large area of heavy sleet may develop after milder air moves in aloft overnight Saturday into early Sunday.

Sleet may accumulate 1-3 inches within the snowpack, moisture that would typically add up to several inches of snow or much heavier ice accumulation. While treacherous to drive on and very slowly melting even when temperatures rise above freezing, sleet mix is expected to keep both snow totals and ice accretion lower than what might be expected if this storm were all snow or all ice.

With several days of very cold temperatures ahead in an Arctic air mass, the glacier that collects this weekend won’t go anywhere very fast, and it’s possible more could be added to it by late next week. It also raises the prospect of possibly thousands of households being without power during some of the most severe cold our state and region have seen in the past decade.

There is still the potential for variations in amounts of snow and ice, depending on slight changes in temperatures aloft and small changes in projected storm tracks. But any way this turns out, it is very likely to be messy and treacherous, nearly statewide, for days to come.

Journalist Kevin Myatt has been writing about weather for 20 years. His weekly column, appearing on Wednesdays, is sponsored by Oakey’s, a family-run, locally-owned funeral home with locations throughout the Roanoke Valley.  

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