The New England Patriots are 4.5-point underdogs against the Seattle Seahawks in the Super Bowl. But there could be value in taking Seattle and the points now, depending on who and what you believe about Drake Maye’s health.
Monday evening, David J. Chao, known as ProFootballDoc, posted a video in which he declared that Maye injured his shoulder in the AFC Championship Game against the Broncos.
“There is no question in my mind that Drake Maye injured his right throwing shoulder against the Denver Broncos,” Chao said.
In an X post, Chao added that it is “to be determined” how severe the injury might be. “Heading into Super Bowl LX, I’m far more concerned about Maye’s shoulder than Sam Darnold’s oblique,” he wrote.
Chao’s comments are notable for a few reasons. First, he is widely regarded as the foremost authority on NFL injuries. He’s credible.
The play Chao referenced occurred in the third quarter following a hit from Talanoa Hufanga. Watch below:
Chao then cites Maye showing discomfort in the huddle:
On one hand, Maye did not miss a snap and threw a deep pass to Mack Hollins two plays later. On the other hand, it remains unclear whether the Patriots’ run-heavy approach afterward was the result of the weather, Maye’s shoulder, or a combination of both.
To this point, there has been no reporting on Maye’s shoulder from any of the notable insiders. As for the team, head coach Mike Vrabel sent mixed signals about the potential injury on Tuesday. He was first asked about the rumors on WEEI’s “Greg Hill Show.”
Here was the exchange.
Q: Internet doctors have seen an issue in Drake Maye’s shoulder. Is he 100 percent healthy?
Vrabel: “There’s not a player on our team that’s 100 percent healthy.”
Q: Is Maye healthy enough to play at a high level?
Vrabel: “I would imagine we’ll go through the injury report, and whenever we have to turn that in, we’ll turn it in. But nobody’s 100 percent. It’ll be our 21st game.”
Hmm.
At first glance, Vrabel’s answers were not reassuring. He did not deny that Maye was injured and would not say whether he could play at a high level. Then again, Vrabel learned firsthand from Bill Belichick and rarely gives a direct answer that could benefit an opponent.
A few hours later, a reporter asked Vrabel about his radio comments during a press conference at Gillette Stadium.
Q: On WEEI, you spoke about the speculated injury. Is that something that’s been blown out of proportion on social media?
Vrabel: “Probably. Here’s what I’m going to start saying about this radio show. This is like the Miranda Rights. There’s nothing that I can say on there that can be used against me when I come back in here. So going forward, that’s what we’re going to have to say. Those are like free interviews. I’m in there, we’re doing breakfast shots of juice. But I think that everybody, including Drake, is not at 100 percent at this time of the year. So we’ll do everything we can to help our players be prepared and help them get ready for this game.”
That answer was a bit more promising.
DENVER – New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) runs against Denver Broncos linebacker Jonah Elliss (52) for a fourth quarter first down to seal the win in the AFC Championship Game at Empower Field at Mile High on January 25, 2026. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
A second reporter asked more directly (which, for some reason, no one else had done).
Q: I don’t know if you’ve been asked this directly yet, but did Drake hurt his shoulder on Sunday?
Vrabel: “No, I wouldn’t say that anybody hurt anything. Again, this is a sport where there’s going to be things that come up, and I don’t think that there’s a, we’ll talk about whatever status each player has for the game once we’re required to. We understand that. But we were able to function offensively, throw the football, run the football. So that’s kind of where everybody is at.”
The good news is that Vrabel said on the record that Maye did not “hurt anything.” The potential bad news is that, again, Vrabel would probably never say otherwise.
New England will not issue an injury report following a practice until next week. Perhaps then there will be some clarity on whether Maye’s shoulder has required extra treatment. That said, there is so much gamesmanship in self-reporting injuries that we likely will not know for certain until we see Maye throw the ball in the Super Bowl on Feb. 8.
To be clear, Chao reiterated on Tuesday that he expects Maye to play. It is the Super Bowl. If Maye can lift his arm above his head, he will play.
But the question of even a minor injury looms large. The Seahawks have a considerably better roster than the Patriots. Position by position, quarterback might be the only clear advantage New England has.
To win, Maye will likely have to channel Josh Allen and go Superman. He did that at times during the regular season, but he has not been nearly as sharp in the playoffs.
Even if Drake Maye is 80 percent of his usual self, that won’t be good enough for the Patriots to win.
Regardless of what Vrabel says or does not say, Maye’s shoulder is now one of the biggest storylines heading into the Super Bowl.
