The BAFTA nominations offered some clarity, and enough complication, to keep this year’s Oscar race interesting.
Leading the charge, as expected, was Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” which landed a commanding 14 nominations, falling two short of the all-time BAFTA record set by “Gandhi” (1982). The haul puts the revolutionary dramedy in line with “All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022), “The King’s Speech” (2010) and “Atonement” (2007), which all went on to win best film.
All five of its principal actors were also nominated, including Chase Infiniti, who missed an Oscar nomination for best actress last week.
The nominations come after the Academy Award announcement, which isn’t typical in most award seasons. BAFTA is a vital bellwether on the awards circuit.
Typically, the BAFTAs don’t tend to “over-reward” movies. While the Oscars have awarded “Ben-Hur” (1959), “Titanic” (1997) and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003) with 11 statuettes each, George Roy Hill’s classic Western “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid” (1969) is the most BAFTA-awarded movie ever with nine. This may present a “spread the wealth” moment at the Feb. 22 ceremony.
The top five contenders for best picture are now known, shifting the focus to the context clues that could determine the ultimate victor on BAFTA, and Oscar night.
Stellan Skarsgård in “Sentimental Value”
Courtesy Everett Collection
Historically, BAFTA has shown an affection toward European storytelling, which bodes well for “Sentimental Value.” The film could mirror a similar trajectory of “The Banshees of Inisherin,” emerging as a multi-award player with potential wins in original screenplay, international feature and possibly acting trophies for both Stellan Skarsgård and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — both of whom were notably snubbed by the Screen Actors Guild.
As for “Marty Supreme,” which delivered a robust showing with 11 nominations, the moment represents a critical opportunity for Timothée Chalamet to prove himself as the definitive frontrunner in the best actor race. At BAFTA, age carries less weight than it does with the Academy. This is the same voting body that awarded best actor to Jamie Bell, then just 14, for “Billy Elliot,” triumphing over Oscar nominees Tom Hanks (“Cast Away”), Geoffrey Rush (“Quills”) and eventual winner Russell Crowe (“Gladiator”).
Some of the big shockers from BAFTA noms included “Train Dreams” missing out on an adapted screenplay nomination, which I had pegged as a potential dark horse/spoiler for the Oscar statuette, similar to when “American Fiction” (2023) picked up the prize despite there being an unstoppable front-runner in “Oppenheimer” for best picture. That leaves PTA’s film in the pole position, with the adaptation of “Hamnet” by Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell, which landed a resounding 11 noms, as an opportunity to make a case.
And then there is the “Sinners” of it all.
Nabbing 13 significant nominations, the most ever for a film helmed by a Black director, “Sinners” makes the case that it’s not as weak as it was perceived to be by the international community.
The nominations for Michael B. Jordan and Wunmi Mosaku were expected. The omission that landed hardest, however, was Delroy Lindo’s.
Despite earning an Oscar nomination for best supporting actor — and appearing on BAFTA’s longlist — Lindo was left out of the final BAFTA lineup. With that miss, he joins Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”) and Marina de Tavira (“Roma”) as the most recent performers to score Oscar bids without recognition from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTA or SAG.
Can Lindo still win? That depends on who wins the SAG and BAFTA awards.
What once looked like a clear path for Skarsgard unraveled when he was surprisingly left off the Actor Awards nominations for “Sentimental Value.” The Critics Choice Award went to Jacob Elordi for “Frankenstein,” while the Golden Globe went to Skarsgard, which left the race fractured across precursors.
All eyes will be on SAG/AFTRA’s Actor Awards on March 1, the last televised awards show before final Oscar voting opens, and one which notably does not include either Skarsgard nor Lindo. If Benicio Del Toro (“One Battle After Another”) triumphs, that would complicate the race further and set the stage for an unpredictable Oscar night. In that scenario, BAFTA could ultimately become the most influential X factor.
Since SAG began giving out prizes in 1995, only three performers have won acting Oscars without receiving a SAG nom: Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock,” Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk” and Christoph Waltz for “Django Unchained.” Harden is the only one to not receive a single televised precursor, the same situation as Lindo. For the 73-year-old performer to prevail, he would need to join that tiny group.
The Writers Guild Awards nominations also dropped, which didn’t offer any surprises on the adapted screenplay front since all the Oscar nominees were eligible.
However, in original screenplay, recent Oscar nominees “Blue Moon,” “It Was Just an Accident” and “Sentimental Value” were not eligible. That left the openings for the non-Oscar-nominated “Black Bag,” “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” and “Weapons.” Nonetheless, this is Coogler’s to lose.
There’s a curveball that exists this year that pundits and analysts have yet to fully consider. In a major shift for Oscar voting protocol, AMPAS now requires members to confirm they’ve watched all nominated films in a category before being allowed to vote in that race. The initiative, aimed at strengthening the integrity and credibility of the awards process, combines digital tracking through the Academy Screening Room with member-reported viewings, which builds on a structure already familiar to Academy voters.
Quantrell Colbert
This means Oscar voters will actually have to do their homework.
Academy sources told Variety back in April the reception from members has been overwhelmingly positive and that many had requested the change for years.
Historically, watching every nominated title was recommended, but not required. Now, studios may have to actually encourage members to watch other competitors’ movies to vote in any given category.
Notably, BAFTA has similar requirements but operates on an honor system, in which members check off the films they have seen. Based on their responses, the category will be opened for final voting.
If an AMPAS member were to watch only the 10 best picture-nominated movies, it would open nine of the 24 categories to them — best picture, supporting actor, adapted screenplay, casting, production design, cinematography, film editing and original score. If members prioritize four more from non-best picture films — “Blue Moon” (Ethan Hawke), “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (Rose Byrne), “Song Sung Blue” (Kate Hudson) and “Weapons” (Amy Madigan) — they will gain voting access to the three remaining acting categories.
Being the sole piece of recognition for your movie could put you at a significant disadvantage, or it could prove incredibly favorable. When voters take the time to watch a film like “Weapons,” they will see how brilliant Madigan’s work is and may be able to look past her surprising BAFTA snub.
The makeup and hairstyling category has the most sole representation among its nominees — “Kokuho,” “The Smashing Machine” and “The Ugly Stepsister.” In theory, the ultimate winner could be decided by the branch itself, making the makeup guild’s award the most vital clue this season. Other categories, such as visual effects and original song, each have two lone nominees. Could this finally help 17-time nominee Diane Warren take home her first statuette?
This could also affect a song like “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters,” which has a second nomination in animated feature, but that is a medium often underappreciated by the industry. A stellar, top-of-their-game voter (i.e., Kirsten Dunst or Carrie Coon) publicly shares that they do the work and watch most, if not all, of the nominees in a given year. But for those who do not, what will this ultimately do to the winners? Will we have sweepers like last year’s “Anora,” which won five of its six nominations? Or does this lend itself to more surprising winners at future ceremonies?
The best way to predict this season’s outcome may not be about statistics alone; it will be about answering the question: How does an industry voter feel about a movie or performance when they are actually watching it? That’s a good outcome in itself.
