New Orders Growing; Production Growing; Employment Contracting; Supplier Deliveries Slowing; Raw Materials Inventories Contracting; Customers’ Inventories Too Low; Prices Increasing; Imports Unchanged; Exports Growing; This report reflects the recently completed annual adjustments to the seasonal factors used to calculate the indexes.
TEMPE, Ariz., Feb. 2, 2026 /PRNewswire/ — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in 12 months, preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report.
The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.
“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 52.6 percent in January, a 4.7-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted reading of 47.9 percent in December. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 15th month. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index expanded for the first time since August, with a reading of 57.1 percent, up 9.7 percentage points over December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 47.4 percent and its highest since February 2022 (59.7 percent). The January reading of the Production Index (55.9 percent) is 5.2 percentage points higher than December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 50.7 percent and the highest since it reached 58.1 percent in February 2022. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’ territory), registering 59 percent, 0.5 percentage point higher than December’s reading of 58.5 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 51.6 percent, up 5.8 percentage points compared to the 45.8 percent recorded in December and the highest reading since August 2022 (53 percent). The Employment Index registered 48.1 percent, up 3.3 percentage points from December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 44.8 percent.
“The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated a further slowdown in performance for the second month in a row after one month in ‘faster’ territory. The reading of 54.4 percent is up 3.6 percentage points from the 50.8 percent recorded in December. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)
“The Inventories Index registered 47.6 percent, up 1.9 percentage points compared to December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 45.7 percent. The Customers’ Inventories Index reading of 38.7 percent is a 4.6-percentage point decrease compared to December and the lowest since it registered 35.2 percent in June 2022.
“The New Export Orders Index reading of 50.2 percent is 3.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 46.8 percent registered in December. The Imports Index registered 50.0 percent, 5.4 percentage points higher than December’s reading of 44.6 percent.”
Spence continues, “In January, U.S. manufacturing activity returned to expansion territory, with improvements in all five subindexes that make up the PMI® (New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories), though the Employment and Inventories indexes still remain in contraction.
“Three demand indicators (the New Orders, Backlog of Orders and New Export Orders indexes) are in expansion, and the Customers’ Inventories Index remains in ‘too low’ territory, contracting at a faster rate. A ‘too low’ status for the Customers’ Inventories Index is usually considered positive for future production. Although these are positive signs for the start of the year, they are tempered by commentary citing that January is a reorder month after the holidays, and some buying appears to be to get ahead of expected price increases due to ongoing tariff issues.
“Regarding output, the Production Index is in expansion for the third month in a row, and the Employment Index, though still in contraction, saw a 3.3-percentage point improvement. However, 66 percent of panelists still indicate that managing head counts is the norm at their companies as opposed to hiring.
“Finally, inputs (defined as supplier deliveries, inventories, prices and imports) were mixed, with the Supplier Deliveries Index indicating slower deliveries, the Inventories Index remaining in contraction and the Prices Index continuing to rise.
“Looking at the manufacturing economy, 20 percent of the sector’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted in January, compared to 85 percent in December, and the percentage of manufacturing GDP in strong contraction (defined as a composite PMI® of 45 percent or lower) decreased to 12 percent, compared to 43 percent in December. The share of sector GDP with a PMI® at or below 45 percent is a good metric to gauge overall manufacturing weakness. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, five (Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products) expanded in January,” says Spence.
The nine manufacturing industries reporting growth in January — listed in order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Computer & Electronic Products. The eight industries reporting contraction in January — in the following order — are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING
- ” ‘Hope’ has been word of the year in the Transportation Equipment industry. Unfortunately, all the hope in the world has not materialized into order activity in 2025 or the first half of 2026. Across the board, buyers continue to stand on the sidelines. As we enter 2026, every conversation revolves around hope that the second half of 2026 starts the turnaround. It’s hard to set strategy on hope, but thanks to the uncertainty brought about by this administration, here we are.” [Transportation Equipment]
- “Although our volume is low at the moment, the impact on the latest tariff threats on the European Union will have a huge negative impact on our profit for current quoted orders. We will not be able to recover the increase tariffs in our current quotations.” [Machinery]
- “Continuing softness in the market, with December orders below average and buyers reluctant to spend despite beneficial tax policies in the U.S. Geopolitical tensions are fueling ‘anti-American’ buyer sentiment, and sales are being lost.” [Machinery]
- “Another round of emotionally charged tariffs seems imminent, changing the landscape once more. Movement of custom product out of China continues, but the progress is slow with new qualifications required for transitioned materials and assemblies.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
- “Business conditions remain uncertain. Customers are cautious. Broad-based inflation continues. The Supreme Court tariff decision looms.” [Computer & Electronic Products]
- “Growing construction markets, data centers and energy projects, are straining the contract labor availability. The trade tariff uncertainty is creating volatility in the supply chain.” [Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products]
- “A new year, with new challenges. We are moving manufacturing from China to Mexico — which will now impose tariffs on parts made in China. This push for more of a Mexican supply chain and creates some short-term supply management concerns.” [Chemical Products]
- “Confused and uninformed tariff policies continue to plague small companies, making long-term planning pointless. Companies are not making capital commitments beyond 30 days.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
- “Business conditions remain soft as we continue to miss sales, orders and profits as result of increased costs from tariffs, continued fallout from the government shutdown, and increased global uncertainty.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]
- “Business trends moving into 2026 feature many of the headwinds from the third and fourth quarters of 2025. While the ‘plane’ has steadied, there continues to be uncertainty and added costs through our global operations. Tariff impacts on our financial performance last year cannot be overstated, as we had a much smaller EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) than previous years. While other inflationary pressures continue to hit the business, tariffs and product costs played a large role. This year, we will continue our multi-country sourcing approach to manufacture and import product from more tariff-friendly countries outside of China. But as we know, nothing is guaranteed with the current administration. We have trimmed costs everywhere inside the business, including on labor and conferences, and reduced our revenue forecast to a much more achievable mark. We’re prepared to battle throughout the year for higher profitability.” [Apparel, Leather & Allied Products]
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
January 2026
Index
Series
Index
Jan
Series
Index
Dec
Percentage
Point
Change
Direction
Rate of
Change
Trend*
(Months)
Manufacturing PMI®
52.6
47.9
+4.7
Growing
From Contracting
1
New Orders
57.1
47.4
+9.7
Growing
From Contracting
1
Production
55.9
50.7
+5.2
Growing
Faster
3
Employment
48.1
44.8
+3.3
Contracting
Slower
28
Supplier Deliveries
54.4
50.8
+3.6
Slowing
Faster
2
Inventories
47.6
45.7
+1.9
Contracting
Slower
9
Customers’ Inventories
38.7
43.3
-4.6
Too Low
Faster
16
Prices
59.0
58.5
+0.5
Increasing
Faster
16
Backlog of Orders
51.6
45.8
+5.8
Growing
From Contracting
1
New Export Orders
50.2
46.8
+3.4
Growing
From Contracting
1
Imports
50.0
44.6
+5.4
Unchanged
From Contracting
1
OVERALL ECONOMY
Growing
Faster
15
Manufacturing Sector
Growing
From Contracting
1
ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report data is seasonally adjusted for the New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.
Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE AND IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Aluminum (26); Brass (2); Copper (7); Copper Based Products (2); Critical Minerals (3); Electronic Components; Freight; Labor; Memory (2); Precious Metals; Steel (3); Steel — Cold Rolled; Steel — Hot Rolled; Steel Products* (2); Wire Products; and Zinc.
Commodities Down in Price
Cooking Oils; Fuel (2); Gasoline (3); Plastic Resins; and Steel Products*.
Commodities in Short Supply
Electrical Components (7); Electronic Components (11); Labor (5); Memory; Rare Earth Components (3); and Steel Products.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
*Indicates both up and down in price.
JANUARY 2026 MANUFACTURING INDEX SUMMARIES
Manufacturing PMI®
The U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in January for the first time in 12 months, registering 52.6 percent, a 4.7-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted reading of 47.9 percent in December. Of the five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI®, three (New Orders, Production, and Supplier Deliveries) are in expansion territory, one more than in December. The Employment and Inventories indexes stayed in contraction, though both improved compared to December. “Of the six biggest manufacturing industries, five (Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products and Computer & Electronic Products) registered growth in January,” says Spence. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing sector is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A Manufacturing PMI® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the January Manufacturing PMI® indicates the overall economy grew for the 15th straight month. “The past relationship between the Manufacturing PMI® and the overall economy indicates that the January reading (52.6 percent) corresponds to a 1.7-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis,” says Spence.
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month
Manufacturing
PMI®
Month
Manufacturing
PMI®
Jan 2026
52.6
Jul 2025
48.4
Dec 2025
47.9
Jun 2025
49.0
Nov 2025
48.0
May 2025
48.6
Oct 2025
48.8
Apr 2025
48.8
Sep 2025
48.9
Mar 2025
48.9
Aug 2025
48.9
Feb 2025
50.0
Average for 12 months – 49.1
High – 52.6
Low – 47.9
New Orders
ISM®’s New Orders Index expanded in January with a reading of 57.1 percent, an increase of 9.7 percentage points compared to December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 47.4 percent and the highest since it registered 59.7 percent in February 2022. “Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) reported increased new orders. For every negative panelist comment about new orders, two comments indicated optimism about near-term demand. A number of comments, however, mentioned post-holiday replenishment and customers’ desire to get ahead of additional tariff-driven price increases as possible reasons for the increase,” says Spence. A New Orders Index above 51.9 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau’s series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
The eight manufacturing industries that reported growth in new orders in January, in order, are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Primary Metals; Machinery; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products. The seven industries reporting a decline in new orders in January, in order, are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Textile Mills; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Computer & Electronic Products.
New Orders
%Higher
%Same
%Lower
Net
Index
Jan 2026
31.4
51.0
17.6
+13.8
57.1
Dec 2025
18.2
50.3
31.5
-13.3
47.4
Nov 2025
20.7
50.9
28.4
-7.7
47.3
Oct 2025
20.4
53.6
26.0
-5.6
48.7
Production
The Production Index expanded in January for the third month in a row, registering 55.9 percent, a 5.2 percentage point increase since December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 50.7 percent and the highest since February 2022 (58.1 percent). “Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) reported increased production. Panelists had a 1-to-1.4 ratio of positive to negative comments regarding output,” says Spence. An index above 52 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Federal Reserve Board’s Industrial Production figures.
The 11 industries reporting growth in production during the month of January — listed in order — are: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The six industries reporting a decrease in production in January — in the following order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Wood Products; Textile Mills; Furniture & Related Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Production
%Higher
%Same
%Lower
Net
Index
Jan 2026
25.7
58.8
15.5
+10.2
55.9
Dec 2025
19.0
55.1
25.9
-6.9
50.7
Nov 2025
22.8
57.4
19.8
+3.0
51.1
Oct 2025
17.3
60.7
22.0
-4.7
48.7
Employment
ISM®’s Employment Index registered 48.1 percent in January, 3.3 percentage points higher than December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 44.8 percent. “The index posted its 28th consecutive month of contraction after expanding in September 2023. Since January 2023, the Employment Index has contracted in 36 of 37 months. Of the six big manufacturing industries, two (Transportation Equipment; and Computer & Electronic Products) reported higher levels of employment in January. For every comment on hiring, there were two on reducing head counts. Companies continued to focus on accelerating staff reductions due to uncertain near- to mid-term demand. The main head-count management strategies remain layoffs and not filling open positions,” says Spence. An Employment Index above 50.3 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, five reported employment growth in January: Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. The 11 industries reporting a decrease in employment in January, in the following order, are: Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Paper Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Primary Metals; Chemical Products; and Machinery.
Employment
%Higher
%Same
%Lower
Net
Index
Jan 2026
13.7
68.0
18.3
-4.6
48.1
Dec 2025
9.0
69.9
21.1
-12.1
44.8
Nov 2025
10.8
64.1
25.1
-14.3
44.1
Oct 2025
13.1
64.6
22.3
-9.2
45.8
Supplier Deliveries†
Delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing organizations was slower in January for the second consecutive month after one month of faster deliveries. “The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.4 percent, a 3.6-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 50.8 percent reported in December. Of the six big industries, five (Computer & Electronic Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; and Chemical Products) reported slower supplier deliveries,” says Spence. A reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries, while a reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries.
The nine manufacturing industries reporting slower supplier deliveries in January, in order, are: Paper Products; Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; and Chemical Products. The three industries reporting faster supplier deliveries in January are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. Six industries reported no change in supplier deliveries in January.
Supplier Deliveries
%Slower
%Same
%Faster
Net
Index
Jan 2026
12.7
83.3
4.0
+8.7
54.4
Dec 2025
10.4
80.8
8.8
+1.6
50.8
Nov 2025
6.1
86.3
7.6
-1.5
49.3
Oct 2025
11.6
85.2
3.2
+8.4
54.2
Inventories
The Inventories Index registered 47.6 percent in January, up 1.9 percentage points compared to the seasonally adjusted reading of 45.7 percent in December. “None of the six big industries expanded inventories in January,” says Spence. An Inventories Index greater than 44.5 percent, over time, is generally consistent with expansion in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) figures on overall manufacturing inventories (in chained 2000 dollars).
Of 18 manufacturing industries, the four reporting higher inventories in January are: Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing. The seven industries reporting lower inventories in January — listed in order — are: Textile Mills; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; and Fabricated Metal Products. Seven industries reported no change in inventories in January.
Inventories
%Higher
%Same
%Lower
Net
Index
Jan 2026
14.0
66.4
19.6
-5.6
47.6
Dec 2025
10.3
65.9
23.8
-13.5
45.7
Nov 2025
14.4
67.9
17.7
-3.3
48.5
Oct 2025
13.2
65.1
21.7
-8.5
46.7
Customers’ Inventories†
ISM®’s Customers’ Inventories Index remained in “too low” territory in January; the reading of 38.7 percent is a decrease of 4.6 percentage points compared to the 43.3 percent reported in December. (For more information about the Customers’ Inventories Index, see the “Data and Method of Presentation” section below.) “January’s reading was the lowest since June 2022, when it registered 35.2 percent, which could be a key reason for the New Orders and Backlog of Orders indexes returning to expansion, accompanied by an increase in the Production Index,” says Spence.
Two industries reported customers’ inventories as too high in January: Plastics & Rubber Products; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The 11 industries reporting customers’ inventories as too low in January, in order, are: Textile Mills; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Chemical Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing.
Customers’
Inventories
%
Reporting
%Too
High
%About
Right
%Too
Low
Net
Index
Jan 2026
69
5.5
66.3
28.2
-22.7
38.7
Dec 2025
76
11.3
64.0
24.7
-13.4
43.3
Nov 2025
73
8.8
71.8
19.4
-10.6
44.7
Oct 2025
75
11.8
64.1
24.1
-12.3
43.9
Prices†
The ISM® Prices Index registered 59 percent in January, an increase of 0.5 percentage point over its December reading (58.5 percent) and indicating raw materials prices increased for the 16th straight month. Of the six largest manufacturing industries, four (Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products) reported price increases in January. “The Prices Index reading continues to be driven by increases in steel and aluminum prices that impact the entire value chain, as well as tariffs applied to many imported goods. Higher prices were reported by 29 percent of respondents in January, up 2.6 percentage points from 26.4 percent in December but lower compared to 49.2 percent in April 2025, which was the highest share since June 2022 (65.2 percent),” says Spence. A Prices Index above 52.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials.
In January, the 11 industries that reported paying increased prices for raw materials, in order, are: Primary Metals; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Fabricated Metal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Transportation Equipment; and Chemical Products. The three industries that reported paying decreased prices for raw materials in January are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.
Prices
%Higher
%Same
%Lower
Net
Index
Jan 2026
29.0
59.9
11.1
+17.9
59.0
Dec 2025
26.4
64.1
9.5
+16.9
58.5
Nov 2025
27.2
62.6
10.2
+17.0
58.5
Oct 2025
27.3
61.4
11.3
+16.0
58.0
Backlog of Orders†
ISM®’s Backlog of Orders Index registered 51.6 percent, an increase of 5.8 percentage points compared to the December reading of 45.8 percent and the highest since August 2022 (53 percent). Of the six largest manufacturing industries, Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products and Machinery reported expansion in order backlogs in January.
The five industries reporting higher backlogs in January are: Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Primary Metals; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The five industries reporting lower backlogs in January are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Textile Mills; Wood Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products. Eight industries reported no change in backlog of orders in January.
Backlog of
Orders
%
Reporting
%Higher
%Same
%Lower
Net
Index
Jan 2026
90
22.2
58.8
19.0
+3.2
51.6
Dec 2025
90
17.2
57.1
25.7
-8.5
45.8
Nov 2025
90
13.9
60.2
25.9
-12.0
44.0
Oct 2025
90
15.7
64.4
19.9
-4.2
47.9
New Export Orders†
ISM®’s New Export Orders Index expanded in January, registering 50.2 percent, up 3.4 percentage points from December’s reading of 46.8 percent. “Trade frictions still are a major concern: For every positive comment, there were 1.2 negative comments,” says Spence.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, the four that reported growth in new export orders in January are: Transportation Equipment; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The nine industries that reported a decrease in new export orders in January — in the following order — are: Wood Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Textile Mills; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Chemical Products.
New Export
Orders
%
Reporting
%Higher
%Same
%Lower
Net
Index
Jan 2026
73
11.5
77.3
11.2
+0.3
50.2
Dec 2025
75
10.6
72.3
17.1
-6.5
46.8
Nov 2025
74
10.3
71.8
17.9
-7.6
46.2
Oct 2025
72
10.5
68.0
21.5
-11.0
44.5
Imports†
ISM®’s Imports Index was unchanged (50 percent) in January after a nine-month period of contraction; the figure is an increase of 5.4 percentage points compared to the reading of 44.6 percent reported in December.
Seven industries reported higher imports in January in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Machinery. The seven industries that reported lower volumes in January — in the following order — are: Printing & Related Support Activities; Wood Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Chemical Products; and Computer & Electronic Products.
Imports
%
Reporting
%Higher
%Same
%Lower
Net
Index
Jan 2026
85
11.3
77.4
11.3
0.0
50.0
Dec 2025
84
9.5
70.1
20.4
-10.9
44.6
Nov 2025
84
13.4
71.0
15.6
-2.2
48.9
Oct 2025
84
10.4
69.9
19.7
-9.3
45.4
†The Supplier Deliveries, Customers’ Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, and Imports indexes do not meet the accepted criteria for seasonal adjustments.
Buying Policy
The average commitment lead time for Capital Expenditures in January was 172 days, a decrease of 5 days compared to December. The average lead time in January for Production Materials was 79 days, an increase of two days compared to December. The average lead time for Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies was 41 days, a decrease of eight days compared to December.
Percent Reporting
Capital
Expenditures
Hand-to-
Mouth
30 Days
60 Days
90 Days
6 Months
1 Year+
Average
Days
Jan 2026
18
5
9
10
30
28
172
Dec 2025
16
4
9
12
30
29
177
Nov 2025
16
5
8
14
30
27
171
Oct 2025
18
4
7
14
31
26
168
Percent Reporting
Production
Materials
Hand-to-
Mouth
30 Days
60 Days
90 Days
6 Months
1 Year+
Average
Days
Jan 2026
8
26
26
27
9
4
79
Dec 2025
9
25
31
22
9
4
77
Nov 2025
10
25
25
26
9
5
81
Oct 2025
10
26
23
28
8
5
80
Percent Reporting
MRO Supplies
Hand-to-
Mouth
30 Days
60 Days
90 Days
6 Months
1 Year+
Average
Days
Jan 2026
31
37
15
12
5
0
41
Dec 2025
29
36
17
11
5
2
49
Nov 2025
28
36
16
14
5
1
47
Oct 2025
30
32
18
14
5
1
47
About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of January 2026.
The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
Data and Method of Presentation
The ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. The composition of the Manufacturing Business Survey Panel is stratified according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and each of the following NAICS-based industries’ contribution to gross domestic product (GDP): Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Wood Products; Paper Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Petroleum & Coal Products; Chemical Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Fabricated Metal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; and Miscellaneous Manufacturing (products such as medical equipment and supplies, jewelry, sporting goods, toys and office supplies). The data are weighted based on each industry’s contribution to GDP. According to U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2024 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2025, as released on January 22, 2026), the six largest manufacturing industries are: Chemical Products; Transportation Equipment; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Machinery; and Petroleum & Coal Products.
Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For nine indicators (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction (higher, better and slower for Supplier Deliveries) and the negative economic direction (lower, worse and faster for Supplier Deliveries), and the diffusion index. For Customers’ Inventories, respondents report their assessment of their customers’ stock levels of respondent companies’ products this month (rather than last month): too high, about right, and too low. Responses are raw data and are never changed. The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive).
The resulting single index number for those meeting the criteria for seasonal adjustments (Manufacturing PMI®, New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories) is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The Manufacturing PMI® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes of five of the indexes with equal weights: New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Production (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted), Supplier Deliveries, and Inventories (seasonally adjusted).
Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. A Manufacturing PMI® reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. A Manufacturing PMI® above 47.5 percent, over a period of time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 47.5 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 47.5 percent is indicative of the extent of the expansion or decline. With some of the indicators within this report, ISM® has indicated the departure point between expansion and decline of comparable government series, as determined by regression analysis. For the Customers’ Inventories Index, numerically, a reading: above 50 percent is “too high,” equal to 50 percent is “about right,” and below 50 percent is “too low.” However, in practice and in the context of other data, customers’ inventories may be considered to be “about right” if the diffusion index is between 52 percent (the high side of about right) and 48 percent (the low side of about right).
The ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report survey is sent out to Manufacturing Business Survey Panel respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to report on information for the current month for U.S. operations only. ISM® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM® then compiles the report for release on the first business day of the following month.
The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.
Responses to Buying Policy reflect the percent reporting the current month’s lead time, the approximate weighted number of days ahead for which commitments are made for Capital Expenditures; Production Materials; and Maintenance, Repair and Operating (MRO) Supplies, expressed as hand-to-mouth (five days), 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, six months (180 days), a year or more (360 days), and the weighted average number of days. These responses are raw data, never revised, and not seasonally adjusted.
ISM PMI® Content
The Institute for Supply Management® (“ISM®”) PMI® Reports, formerly Report On Business®, (Manufacturing and Services reports) (“ISM PMI®”) contain information, text, files, images, video, sounds, musical works, works of authorship, applications, and any other materials or content (collectively, “Content”) of ISM (“ISM PMI® Content”). ISM PMI® Content is protected by copyright, trademark, trade secret, and other laws, and as between you and ISM, ISM owns and retains all rights in the ISM PMI® Content. ISM hereby grants you a limited, revocable, nonsublicensable license to access and display on your individual device the ISM PMI® Content (excluding any software code) solely for your personal, non-commercial use. The ISM PMI® Content shall also contain Content of users and other ISM licensors. Except as provided herein or as explicitly allowed in writing by ISM, you shall not copy, download, stream, capture, reproduce, duplicate, archive, upload, modify, translate, publish, broadcast, transmit, retransmit, distribute, perform, display, sell, or otherwise use any ISM PMI® Content.
Except as explicitly and expressly permitted by ISM, you are strictly prohibited from creating works or materials (including but not limited to tables, charts, data streams, time-series variables, fonts, icons, link buttons, wallpaper, desktop themes, online postcards, montages, mashups and similar videos, greeting cards, and unlicensed merchandise) that derive from or are based on the ISM PMI® Content. This prohibition applies regardless of whether the derivative works or materials are sold, bartered, or given away. You shall not either directly or through the use of any device, software, internet site, web-based service, or other means remove, alter, bypass, avoid, interfere with, or circumvent any copyright, trademark, or other proprietary notices marked on the Content or any digital rights management mechanism, device, or other content protection or access control measure associated with the Content including geo-filtering mechanisms. Without prior written authorization from ISM, you shall not build a business utilizing the Content, whether or not for profit.
You shall not create, recreate, distribute, incorporate in other work, or advertise an index of any portion of the Content unless you receive prior written authorization from ISM. Requests for permission to reproduce or distribute ISM PMI® Content can be made by contacting in writing at: ISM Research, Institute for Supply Management, 309 West Elliot Road, Suite 113, Tempe, Arizona 85284-1556, or by emailing [email protected]. Subject: Content Request.
ISM shall not have any liability, duty, or obligation for or relating to the ISM PMI® Content or other information contained herein, any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in providing any ISM PMI® Content or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In no event shall ISM be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages arising out of the use of the ISM PMI®. Report On Business®, PMI®, Manufacturing PMI® and Services PMI® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management®. Institute for Supply Management® and ISM® are registered trademarks of Institute for Supply Management, Inc.
About Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®)
Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries around the world manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the strategy and practice of integrated, end-to-end supply chain management through leading edge data-driven resources, community, and education to empower individuals, create organizational value and to drive competitive advantage. ISM’s vision is to foster a prosperous, sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM® PMI® Reports (formerly Report On Business®), its highly regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events and assessments. The ISM® PMI® Reports — Manufacturing and Services — are two of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.
The full text version of the ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report is posted on ISM®’s website at www.ismrob.org on the first business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January when the report is released on the second business day of the month.
The next ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report featuring February 2026 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday, March 2, 2026.
*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.
Contact:
Kristina Cahill
PMI® Reports Analyst
ISM®, PMI®/Research Manager
Tempe, Arizona
+1 480.455.5910
Email: [email protected]
SOURCE Institute for Supply Management
