North Texas Mean Green vs. Florida Atlantic Owls prediction, pick for NCAAM on Sunday 2/22/26

admin-cdn2 hours ago

0 1 3 minutes read

North Texas Mean Green vs. Florida Atlantic Owls prediction, pick for NCAAM on Sunday 2/22/26

Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the North Texas Mean Green and the Florida Atlantic Owls.

Florida Atlantic walk into The Super Pit at 15-12 and 7-7 in the American Athletic Conference, and this is a survival spot. North Texas are 15-12 and 6-8, and the home floor is the whole point tonight. North Texas just edged Temple 65-62 in a game that lived in the mud. Florida Atlantic has been living through streaky stretches, and this number is saying the margin is razor-thin. The board sits at North Texas -2.5 with a 140.5 total, so the market is pricing a grinder. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the North Texas Mean Green and the Florida Atlantic Owls.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

North Texas wins when it turns every possession into a late-clock negotiation, because the defense is simply better. Its adjusted defense sits at 101.8, and it forces turnovers on 22.0% of trips, which is a real possession-creation engine. Florida Atlantic can score cleaner shots, because it owns 110.7 AdjO with a 52.2 eFG%, while North Texas sits at 45.9 eFG%, so the shot-making baseline favors the dog. The problem is the environment: Florida Atlantic coughs it up at 17.7%, and North Texas lives to turn that into runouts and short fields. The foul window is loud on both sides, because North Texas carries 39.9 FTR and also allows 45.0 FTRD, which can turn a low-possession game into free points.

The matchup turns on Devin Vanterpool because Florida Atlantic needs a creator who can survive pressure without bleeding live-ball turnovers. Kanaan Carlyle matters as the second engine, because the dog only covers if two scorers keep the offense from stalling. Devin Williams is the rim-cleanup lever, because North Texas does not want to finish inside into real length. On the home side, Je’Shawn Stevenson is the primary bucket, but the game tilts when David Terrell Jr. can create clean threes without forcing the issue. North Texas just won while shooting 2-for-13 from three, and that is the whole thesis. It can win ugly.

FAU vs. UNT pick, best bet

North Texas forces giveaways on 22.0% of possessions, and Florida Atlantic’s offense is already at 17.7% turnover rate. The second loss script is whistle chaos, because North Texas games can turn into bonus minutes with 45.0 FTRD sitting in the profile. The reason the dog still has air is that North Texas does not create efficient offense, with a 45.9 eFG% and only 28.1% shooting on threes. If Florida Atlantic simply survives the ball-pressure minutes, the shot-quality edge shows up.

The spot is doing most of the work for North Texas, and it translates directly to pace and mistake rate. This building turns possessions into half-court possessions, which increases the value of a defense that can force a bad pass late. That feeds North Texas’ strongest lever, because it already lives at 64.9 adjusted tempo and wants the game to stay there. Florida Atlantic’s best counter is to keep rim pressure alive, because its close-two offense sits at 58.6% on 39.6% share, and it can win without a three-point heater. The market texture also reads like a coin-flip, because projection sets cluster this closer to North Texas by about one point than by three. That keeps +2.5 live all game.

Best bet: Florida Atlantic +2.5 (-112), playable to +1.5. The ticket cashes most often if Florida Atlantic’s shot-quality edge holds, because 52.2 eFG% versus 45.9 eFG% is a real gap in a one-bucket spread. It also needs the turnover damage to stay manageable, because North Texas’ 22.0% forced-turnover rate is the only clean margin lever here. One thing that can beat this is North Texas turning giveaways into a quick 8-0 burst, because the pace drops and the comeback possessions vanish.

Predicted score: North Texas 69, Florida Atlantic 68.