Amy Madigan has officially claimed the SAG Actor Award for Best Supporting Actress for her iconic turn as Aunt Gladys in Warner Bros.’ horror hit Weapons. The win marks a major milestone for the veteran actress, who was first nominated by the Academy 40 years ago for Twice in a Lifetime.
But the question remains: Is she now the undeniable Oscar frontrunner?
The Demi Moore Cautionary Tale
Not necessarily. One only has to look back to last year’s Best Actress race for a reality check.
Demi Moore swept Critics Choice and SAG — just as Madigan has now done — only to lose BAFTA and ultimately the Oscar to Mikey Madison for Anora.
Demi Moore wins Critics Choice and SAG Actor Awards for ‘The Substance’ Matt Winkelmeyer/Getty Images
Madigan still faces a steep climb. She must overcome the Academy’s historical bias against horror, compounded by the fact that she stands as the lone nominee for Weapons. The last Supporting Actress winner to take the Oscar without her film also landing a Best Picture nomination was Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk seven years ago. The last winner in this category who was the sole nominee from her film? Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona in 2009.
Winning without that Best Picture coattail effect is rare.
The Taylor and Mosaku Factor
Golden Globe winner Teyana Taylor and BAFTA winner Wunmi MosakuAmy Sussman/Getty Images/
Then there are the challengers.
Golden Globe winner Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) has struggled to build momentum beyond that early victory. Can a performance leap from Globe to Oscar without additional major precursors? History suggests it’s unlikely.
The closest recent comparison is again Regina King, who won both the Globe and Critics Choice but lost SAG Actor and BAFTA. Those losses were often attributed to Beale Street screeners arriving late — an issue neither Taylor nor BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku faces this season, as both One Battle After Another and Sinners have been widely seen since last fall.
Mosaku remains the race’s potential spoiler after her BAFTA triumph for Sinners. While some point to home-field advantage, a BAFTA win still signals strong industry support. However, precedent for a BAFTA-only path to Oscar is thin. Just three years ago, Kerry Condon won there for The Banshees of Inisherin, only to lose the Oscar to SAG Actor winner Jamie Lee Curtis.
A race to the wire
The Curtis/Condon race may be the clearest parallel — with one key difference. Curtis was part of the Everything Everywhere All at Once juggernaut that swept seven Oscars. Madigan doesn’t have that Best Picture momentum behind her.
Traditionally, the safest prediction is to back the contender in the Best Picture frontrunner. But this year, both Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Mosaku (Sinners) are attached to the top two films in the race.
Could that split the prestige vote — and allow Madigan to prevail on the strength of a career-best performance?
Our spin: Madigan leaves the SAG Actor Awards with a slight edge, but this race remains wide open. Whether it’s a veteran’s overdue coronation or a win tied to Best Picture strength, Supporting Actress is shaping up to be one of the closest contests of the night.
