Will Louisville basketball beat Miami today? Our expert prediction

Louisville basketball wins over Syracuse, C.L. Brown’s One Take

The Louisville Cardinals needed a win after back-to-back road losses, but a bigger concern might be looming for UofL as March Madness approaches.

• Louisville basketball has a chance to change the narrative surrounding its struggles against Quad 1A opponents in Saturday’s regular-season finale against No. 23 Miami at the Watsco Center.
• The Hurricanes have won seven of their past eight games, including three in a row entering Saturday, and clinched the No. 3 seed in next week’s ACC Tournament with a 77-69 victory Wednesday at SMU.
• Who has the edge in this conference showdown? Check out our score prediction below.

CORAL GABLES, FL — There’s a lot at stake for Louisville basketball in the regular-season finale.

With a win over No. 23 Miami (24-6, 13-4 ACC) today at the Watsco Center, Pat Kelsey’s Cardinals (21-9, 10-7) would not only secure the No. 6 seed in next week’s ACC Tournament but also snap an eight-game losing streak against Quad 1A opponents — taking some much-needed momentum into the postseason.

“We haven’t done a good job, going into really good teams’ venues and finishing the job,” Kelsey said after Tuesday’s 77-62 win over Syracuse at the KFC Yum! Center. “We’re going to fight like hell, I can tell you that, these next couple of days in practice. We’re going to go down there and give it everything we’ve got.”

Mikel Brown Jr. has been ruled out of the game, according to Friday night’s initial ACC availability report. UofL’s freshman point guard missed the victory over the Orange due to a back issue that limited him to only 21 minutes off the bench during a Feb. 28 loss at Clemson. Sixth-year forward Kasean Pryor (illness) is also out.

Led by first-year coach Jai Lucas, Miami entered the weekend at 29th in the NET and 28th in KenPom.com’s adjusted efficiency rankings. The Hurricanes last played Wednesday: a 77-69 win at SMU, with which they clinched the No. 3 seed in the conference tournament. They’re not as battle-tested as Louisville, though, having played only eight Quad 1 games to the Cards’ 15.

Malik Reneau, a 6-foot-9 forward, is Miami’s go-to guy, averaging a team-high 19.1 points on 56% shooting with 6.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game. But the senior Indiana transfer is just one of four double-digit scorers at Lucas’ disposal. The others are Tre Donaldson (16.6), Shelton Henderson (14) and Tru Washington (11.8).

To be sure, the Hurricanes can hit the Cards where it hurts. As of Friday, they boasted the ACC’s top free-throw rate during conference play (37.8%) in addition to the No. 2 offensive rebounding rate (36%) and the fourth-best 2-point percentage (55.7%). They have, however, struggled at the charity stripe (68.6%, 15th of 18 teams) and turned the ball over a lot during league play (16.9%, 16th). And they’ve made only 102 of their 305 attempted 3s (33.4%, 14th), although no one in the ACC takes fewer shots from beyond the arc than they do (31.1% of total FGA).

Here’s what you need to know to follow today’s game — then a score prediction:

UofL and Miami are scheduled to tip off at 2 p.m. today inside the Watsco Center.

The game between the Cards and the Hurricanes will air on ESPNU, which is channel 605 on AT&T U-Verse; channel 208 on DirecTV; channel 141 on Dish; and channel 514 on Spectrum.

Dave O’Brien (play-by-play) and Cory Alexander (analyst) will be on the call.

If you subscribe to a cable package, you’ll be able to livestream the game via ESPN.com and the ESPN app. If you don’t have cable, you can livestream the game via Fubo, which offers a free trial here.

Louisville is a 1½-point underdog (-112) on DraftKings, which set the over/under at 156½ points (-115/-105).

No. 23 Miami 79, Louisville 75: The Cards were improved on both ends of the court against Syracuse — like a team that’s dropped two in a row should look at home against an opponent with a sub-.500 record in ACC play. But the theme of the past couple of months has been, “One step forward, two steps back” — especially against the conference’s toughest opponents. And the Hurricanes are the type of team that has given UofL problems all season. It would be unwise to pick against them considering Louisville’s 0-8 record in Quad 1A games, with six of those losses coming away from the Yum! Center.

• Friday, Oct. 24: vs. Kansas (exhibition) | SCORE: Kansas 90, Louisville 82
• Tuesday, Oct. 28: vs. Bucknell (exhibition) | SCORE: Louisville 99, Bucknell 76
• Monday, Nov. 3: vs. South Carolina State | SCORE: Louisville 104, South Carolina State 45
• Thursday, Nov. 6: vs. Jackson State | SCORE: Louisville 106, Jackson State 70
• Tuesday, Nov. 11: vs. Kentucky | SCORE: Louisville 96, Kentucky 88
• Saturday, Nov. 15: vs. Ohio | SCORE: Louisville 106, Ohio 81
• Friday, Nov. 21: vs. Cincinnati | SCORE: Louisville 74, Cincinnati 64
• Monday, Nov. 24: vs. Eastern Michigan | SCORE: Louisville 87, Eastern Michigan 46
• Wednesday, Nov. 26: vs. NJIT | SCORE: Louisville 104, NJIT 47
• Wednesday, Dec. 3: at Arkansas (ACC/SEC Challenge) | SCORE: Arkansas 89, Louisville 80
• Saturday, Dec. 6: vs. Indiana (at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis) | SCORE: Louisville 87, Indiana 78
• Saturday, Dec. 13: vs. Memphis | SCORE: Louisville 99, Memphis 73
• Tuesday, Dec. 16: at Tennessee | SCORE: Tennessee 83, Louisville 62
• Saturday, Dec. 20: vs. Montana | SCORE: Louisville 94, Montana 54
• Tuesday, Dec. 30: at California | SCORE: Louisville 90, California 70
• Friday, Jan. 2: at Stanford | SCORE: Stanford 80, Louisville 76
• Tuesday, Jan. 6: vs. Duke | SCORE: Duke 84, Louisville 73
• Saturday, Jan. 10: vs. Boston College | SCORE: Louisville 75, Boston College 62
• Tuesday, Jan. 13: vs. Virginia | SCORE: Virginia 79, Louisville 70
• Saturday, Jan. 17: at Pittsburgh | SCORE: Louisville 100, Pittsburgh 59
• Saturday, Jan. 24: vs. Virginia Tech | SCORE: Louisville 85, Virginia Tech 71
• Monday, Jan. 26: at Duke | SCORE: Duke 83, Louisville 52
• Saturday, Jan. 31: vs. SMU | SCORE: Louisville 88, SMU 74
• Wednesday, Feb. 4: vs. Notre Dame | SCORE: Louisville 76, Notre Dame 65
• Saturday, Feb. 7: at Wake Forest | SCORE: Louisville 88, Wake Forest 80
• Monday, Feb. 9: vs. N.C. State | SCORE: Louisville 118, N.C. State 77
• Saturday, Feb. 14: vs. Baylor (at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas) | SCORE: Louisville 82, Baylor 71
• Tuesday, Feb. 17: at SMU | SCORE: SMU 95, Louisville 85
• Saturday, Feb. 21: vs. Georgia Tech | SCORE: Louisville 87, Georgia Tech 70
• Monday, Feb. 23: at North Carolina | SCORE: North Carolina 77, Louisville 74
• Saturday, Feb. 28: at Clemson | SCORE: Clemson 80, Louisville 75
• Tuesday, March 3: vs. Syracuse | SCORE: Louisville 77, Syracuse 62
• Saturday, March 7: at Miami, 2 p.m., ESPNU
• Tuesday, March 10, through Saturday, March 14: ACC Tournament (Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina)

Reach Louisville men’s basketball reporter Brooks Holton at [email protected] and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.