Michigan State basketball vs. North Dakota State NCAA tournament tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
MSU’s basketball team dunks during NCAA tournament practice (video)
Michigan State’s basketball team dunks at the end of NCAA tournament practice Wednesday, March 18, in Buffalo.
• What: 3-seed Michigan State vs. 14-seed North Dakota State, NCAA tournament first round
• When: 4:05 p.m. Thursday
• Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
• TV/Radio: TNT/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 203
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 25-7 overall, finishing second in the Big Ten at 15-5, before falling in the first round of the Big Ten tournament. The Spartans are ranked No. 11 in both the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches polls. The Spartans are No. 11 in the NET rankings and No. 9 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. North Dakota State is 27-7 overall, having won the Summit League regular season and conference championships, including a 14-2 conference record in the regular season. The Bison are unranked by the major polls, while being No. 114 in the NET rankings and ranked No. 115 by Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -16.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 763-309 in his 31st season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. North Dakota State — David Richman is 238–149 in his 12th season as a head coach, all with the Bison.
• Series: This is the first meeting between these two programs. North Dakota State moved up from Division II to Division I in 2003-04.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.8
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.7
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.6
SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 5.9
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.7
North Dakota State
C (44) Treyson Anderson (6-9) 10.4
F (30) Markhi Strickland (6-6) 11.8
G (0) Trevian Carson (6-3) 12.0
G (1) Damari Wheeler-Thomas (6-0) 14.4
PG (5) Andy Stefonowicz (6-2) 9.2
• MSU update: The Spartans begin what they hope is a long NCAA tournament run, playing some of their best basketball over the past few weeks — other than in a Big Ten tournament quarterfinal loss to UCLA. It took the entire regular season, but MSU is finally a top 25 offense and defense nationally, per Kenpom, with the Spartans coming in at No. 24 in offensive efficiency and No. 13 in defensive efficiency. That means they’re nearing the baseline for what it takes to win a national championship historically. That said, MSU’s defensive numbers have been slipping a bit. Where the Spartans remain elite is on the glass, where they’re the nation’s No. 1 defensive rebounding team and No. 4 on the offensive end. While they’re an inconsistent 3-point shooting team, their overall numbers are pretty solid — 35.9%, which is 66th out of 365 Division I teams.
MSU junior point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. is now the program’s single-season record holder for assists with 294, passing Cassius Winston’s seven-year old mark of 291, set in 2018-19. Fears, who leads the nation in assists at 9.2 per game, is racking up the honors, having been named a second-team All-American by the Associated Press and a third-team All-American by the Sporting News.
This is the Spartans’ 28th straight NCAA tournament under Izzo. Other than losing in the play-in game in 2021 during the COVID year, MSU hasn’t dropped a first-round game in 10 years, when, as a 2 seed, the Spartans ran into a 15-seed Middle Tennessee State team that could not miss. MSU has only once lost in the first round as a 3 seed, another infamous defeat, 31 years ago to Weber State in Jud Heathcote’s final game.
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• North Dakota State update: The Bison arrive in Buffalo having won the Summit League regular season and tournament titles, though they haven’t played a single Kenpom top 100 team or a high-major team. At their level, the Bison were elite in a lot of areas — No. 1 in Summit League games in offensive rebounding percentage (32.9%) and No. 2 on the defensive glass, No. 1 in defensive efficiency and 2 in offense, and No. 2 in 3-point shooting at 39.1% in conference play.
North Dakota State’s roster is largely made up of a players who’ve grown up in the program, including four starters who played significant roles a year ago. In terms of names you might know: Starter Markhi Strickland spent the last two seasons at Western Michigan; and reserve guard Max Majerle, who began his career at Central Michigan, is the son of NBA great and Chippewas legend Dan Majerle.
This is North Dakota State’s first NCAA appearance since 2019, though the Bison won their conference tournament in 2020, just before the season was cancelled. In 2014, as a 12 seed, North Dakota State upset 5-seed Oklahoma in the first round of the NCAA tournament in Spokane, Washington, where MSU also began their NCAA tournament that season.
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• Matchup analysis: It’s difficult to gauge just how good North Dakota State is, based on its lack of notable competition this season. The Bison have good guards, two or three who could probably play at a higher level, and a number of dangerous shooters, with five players who are shooting 37 or 38% on 3s and have attempted at least 97 shots from beyond the arc this season. That includes all three starting guards — Damari Wheeler-Thomas, Andy Stefonowicz and Trevian Carson — and starting big man Treyson Anderson. The Bison do not have a guard, however, that’s devastating getting to the basket. They’re solid, shoot it well and don’t turn it over. I don’t know if that’s enough to hurt MSU. We’ll see. The Bison have OK, but not overwhelming, size. I don’t think this is a bad matchup for the Spartans, as long as they defend the 3-point line.
• Prediction: If North Dakota State hits 15 3-pointers and finishes the game with five turnovers or less, MSU might be in trouble. That’s not how I see this playing out. I think MSU will win on the glass and find some good moments in transition and have a couple runs that push the margin into double digits. This is one of those games where I think we’ll know early whether the Bison can keep up.
• Make it: MSU 78, North Dakota State 64
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Contact Graham Couch at [email protected]. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
