WTA Miami continues its torrid pace with more great matches. The earlier second-round matches were sensational, and the back half promises even more tense action. Once again, we’ve gathered several matches and listed our best bets for them. The second round features some surprisingly strong matches throughout the card. Let us know if you agree with our picks in the comments.
WTA Miami
Fernandez – Selekhmeteva: Time 07:00
H2H: 0-0
Leylah Fernandez and Oksana Selekhmeteva will play for the first time at WTA Miami. An interesting match between two lefties, Selekhmeteva is having a better year than Fernandez by some measure. Selekhmeteva is 10-7 while Fernandez is 2-7, and all of their matches have been on a hardcourt. For whatever reason, Fernandez has been a shell of her former self at the start of the year. She has a three-set win over Liudmila Samsonova in the first round of WTA Dubai and a first-round win over Chloe Paquet at WTA Abu Dhabi.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Fernandez as a 1.2-point favorite, on average. It’s a bit mystifying to me as to why she’s that favored when she’s been playing poorly. Selekhmeteva is playing better, won the same number of tournaments last year, and has a higher career winning percentage on a hardcourt than Fernandez. Given the value you can get for Selekhmeteva, it would be silly to pass up the idea of her winning straight up at 2.75 on three different sites: bet365, William Hill, and Betfair.
That being said, Selekhmeteva winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Selekhmeteva winning @2.75 @bet365
Jovic – Badosa: Time 07:00
H2H: 0-0
Iva Jovic vs Paula Badosa is a match that’s going to draw a lot of attention. For as good as Badosa has been throughout her career, she’s never been able to manage a sustained, lengthy run at the top of the sport. These days, whenever she builds momentum, she trades it in the following year for an injury that derails any momentum. Since 2000, she has had nineteen different injuries, including one this year that took her out of action for two weeks. Her injury report reads like a war casualty list. Meanwhile, Jovic is at the start of a blossoming career where the sky is the limit for her.
Best Bet to Make
I could get into the statistics with Badosa or Jovic, but I don’t think this match warrants all that. In years past, I would have absolutely given Badosa a chance to win this match, maybe even favored her. As it stands, I absolutely agree with Jovic winning in straight sets. At 2.5 on bet365, Jovic 2:0 is the likely outcome of this match. I know she’s had two poor showings in the last tournament, but she’s been largely consistent this year, with a final, semifinal, quarterfinal, and two round-of-16 appearances.
That being said, Jovic winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Jovic winning 2:0 @2.5 @bet365
Jones – Pegula: Time 08:00
H2H: 0-0
Francesca Jones vs Jessica Pegula is my featured match for this column. Pegula is one of the best players in women’s tennis and was a finalist here last year. Jones has made it out of the first round exactly one time this year at WTA Auckland. She actually managed a quarterfinal appearance in that tournament. She did win four tournaments last year, two at the WTA level. Pegula is coming off a tournament victory at WTA Dubai.
Best Bet to Make
It should not come as any surprise who the favorite is in this match. Pegula is a 19-1 favorite at the highest, and an average of a 13-1 favorite. Only one book has her as a single-digit underdog, and that’s BetVictor at 8.5-1 odds. If you want to make money off Pegula, you’re going to have to do so by playing total games played. Luckily for you, I’ve done the homework and recommend taking the under on 17.5 games at 2.0 on Coral.
That being said, Under 17.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Under 17.5 games @2.0 @Coral
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey–USA TODAY Sports
