Today March Madness continues with eight Second Round matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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TCU (23-11) is the 9-seed and just edged Ohio State 66-64 in the opening round, winning outright as 2.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Duke (33-2) is the 1-seed and barely edged Siena 71-65 in the opening round, failing to cover as 28.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Duke listed as high as a 12.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is leaning toward laying the chalk with the Blue Devils.
However, despite receiving 56% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Duke fall from -12.5 to -11.5, with some shops even briefly touching as low as -10.5.
This signals sharp reverse line movement on TCU plus the points, as the line has moved in favor of the Horned Frogs despite the public backing the Blue Devils.
At DraftKings, TCU is receiving 44% of spread bets and 52% of spread dollars. At Circa, TCU is taking in 51% of spread bets and 62% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” splt in favor of the Horned Frogs plus the points.
TCU does a better job of not turning it over on offense (98th vs 111th) and also forces more turnovers on defense (35th vs 102nd).
We’ve also seen this total tick up from 138.5 to 140.5.
At Circa, the over is taking in 79% of bets and whopping 95% of dollars, further evidence of one-way sharp action banking on a higher scoring game.
VCU (28-7) is the 11-seed and just outlasted North Carolina 82-78 in overtime, winning outright as 2.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, Illinois (25-8) is the 3-seed and just demolished Pennsylvania 105-70, covering as 25.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Illinois listed as a 10.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit high and 58% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with VCU.
However, despite the public leaning toward VCU we’ve seen Illinois get juiced up -10.5 (-115 or -120), with a few other books creeping up to -11 or even -11.5.
This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Illinois, as the line has either stayed the same or been juiced up and moved in favor of the Fighting Illini despite the public backing the trendy dog Rams.
At Circa, Illinois is taking in 46% of spread bets but a lopsided 82% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the Fighting Illini minus the points from the wiseguys in the desert.
Illinois has the better offensive efficiency (2nd vs 46th), defensive efficiency (28th vs 54th), offensive rebound percentage (3rd vs 132nd), free-throw shooting (9th vs 139th) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (6th vs 71st).
Vanderbilt (27-8) is the 5-seed and just held off McNeese State 78-68 in the first round but failed to cover as 12.5-point neutral site favorites. On the other hand, Nebraska (27-6) is the 4-seed and just dominated Troy 76-47 in the first round, easily covering as 13.5-point neutral site favorites.
This line opened with Vanderbilt listed as high as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public is happy to lay the short chalk with the Commodores.
However, despite receiving 64% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Vanderbilt fall from -2.5 to -1.5.
This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Nebraska plus the points, as the line has moved toward the Cornhuskers despite nearly two-thirds of tickets backing the Commodores.
Nebraska offers notable “bet against the public” value as the Cornhuskers are receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on TNT.
At Circa, Nebraska is taking in 49% of spread bets but 60% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy and further evidence of wiseguy support from the pros in Vegas.
Ken Pom has Vanderbilt winning by one point (75-74), which provides an edge on Nebraska plus the hook (+1.5).
Nebraska has the better defensive efficiency (7th vs 29th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (35th vs 52nd), force more turnovers on defense (36th vs 116th) and give up fewer offensive rebounds to their opponents (53rd vs 242nd).
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 147.5 to 146.5.
This downward movement is notable because 80% of bets at DraftKings are taking the over, yet the line fell.
At Circa, the under is taking in 56% of bets and massive 98% of dollars, further evidence of sharp money siding with a lower scoring game.
