Darlington Goodyear 400 Fantasy NASCAR Confidence Rankings / Post Practice Predictions

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On Sunday, NASCAR will be returning to Darlington for the Goodyear 400! Darlington is a unique 1.33-mile egg shaped oval where tire wear is high, and the driver is a difference maker. This weekend won’t be your typical race at “The Track Too Tough To Tame.” The cars have more horsepower (750 HP) and a lot less down force, with the short track rules package making it’s Darlington debut. Chris Buescher said this might be the most out of control race of his entire Cup career. Drivers have touted that fall off over a run might be 4-seconds. All of that says, buckle up since it might be wild!

On Saturday, practice was held for Darlington. Teams had 25 minutes, and keep in mind teams have different agendas. Make sure you check out our Darlington Practice Notes, Darlington 10,15,20,25 and 30 Lap Average Speed Cheat Sheet, Darlington Group Speed Rankings and Darlington Practice Speeds and 10-Lap Averages.

Here’s Darlington Qualifying Results/ Starting Lineup.

1) Tyler Reddick
Start 1st / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – High
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Tyler Reddick has been elite at Darlington and on Sunday, look for Reddick to be a top five contender who’ll be a factor to win. On Saturday, Reddick won the pole and was a stopwatch standout in practice, ranking #1 for 15,20,25 and 30-lap averages. In the Next Gen at Darlington, Reddick has a 50% top 4 finish rate, has the best average finish (9.6), the best Next Gen Driver Rating, and he’s tied for the best Next Gen speed ranking. In the Next Gen over his incident-free races, Reddick has a 3.8 average finish. Last summer, Reddick had a stellar showing and finished 2nd. In the race, Reddick finished 2nd in Stage #1, finished 2nd in Stage #2, earned the 2nd best Driver Rating, had the 2nd best average running position (4.6), and then finished 2nd overall. In terms of speed stats, Reddick ranked as the fastest driver late in a run and had the 2nd best Total Speed Ranking. Last spring, Reddick nearly raced his way to victory lane but finished 4th. In the race, Reddick earned the 2nd best Driver Rating, had the 2nd best average running position, led 42 laps, found himself in the lead following the final green flag pit cycle, but was then reeled in by Blaney with a few laps to go and then lost a few more spots following the final restart. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Reddick ranked 3rd. In summer 2024 in a flu race, Reddick faded back as the race went along. In the race, Reddick finished 10th, had a 6.1 average running position, and earned the 5th best Driver Rating. In spring 2024, Reddick was the class of the field. In the race, Reddick finished 4th in Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 174 laps, but then finished an asterisk mark 32nd after colliding with Buescher on lap 264 while battling for the lead. In terms of speed, Reddick had the best Total Speed Ranking. Over the four races prior to that, Reddick had results of 2nd, 22nd (crashed late while running around 8th), 2nd, and 3rd.
DraftKings $9,500/ FanDuel $12,500

Further Recommended Reading – Darlington Finish Projections, Darlington Quick Rankings, DraftKings Darlington Scoring Projections, FanDuel Darlington Scoring Projections, Darlington Next Gen Average Finishes, Darlington Next Gen Speed Rankings, Darlington Next Gen RPM

2) Denny Hamlin
Start 9th / Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Defending Spring Darlington champ, Denny Hamlin is a dominant performer at “The Lady in Black” who’ll be tough to beat as he vies for back-to-back wins. Hamlin’s a 5-time winner who’s finished in the top five 52% of the time, in the top ten 74% of the time, and his career average finish is 7.9. In the Next Gen, Hamlin’s had problems in 50% of the races, but yet he still has the 2nd best average finish (9.9), the 3rd best Next Gen Speed Ranking, and the 3rd best Driver Rating. Last summer, Hamlin finished 7th despite his afternoon not being incident-free. In the race, Hamlin started on the pole, led 12 laps, finished 3rd in Stage #1, was in 4th on lap 150, but then just after that, Hamlin had a slow pit stop that dropped him back to 23rd, hindering his evening. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 7th, had the 6th best Total Speed Ranking, earned the 7th best Driver Rating, and had a 9.4 average running position. Last spring, Hamlin didn’t have the best car, but that didn’t keep him out of victory lane. In the race, Hamlin started 3rd, finished 3rd in Stage #2, had the 4th best Driver Rating, had the 4th best Average Running Position, led 10 laps, and was running in 3rd on lap 289, before the late caution came out. During that caution, Hamlin won the race off pit road and then hung on to win. In summer 2024, Hamlin finished 7th, but “Performance Wise”, I would say he was likely the 2nd best. With 40 laps to go before late carnage broke out, Hamlin was in 2nd. When the checkered flag waved, Hamlin finished 7th, had a 6.4 average running position, and earned the 4th best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Hamlin had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked #1 for Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2024, Hamlin finished 4th. Hamlin wasn’t high on the speed charts in practice, but his savvy vet will be just fine.
DraftKings $11,000/ FanDuel $14,000

3) Kyle Larson
Start 4th/ Projected Finish Range 1-6 / Dominator Potential – Medium-High
Darlington Fantasy Outlook – Kyle Larson is a super-elite performer at Darlington, and if he can avoid trouble, the road to victory lane might very well go through him. That said, avoiding trouble is no small task for him, and over the last four spring Darlington races, his average finish is 31.8. That said, when he avoids trouble, he’s been money in the bank, and over his last six incident-free races, he’s 6 for 6 at finishing in the top 4. Overall, in the Next Gen era at Darlington, Larson has a 20.4 average finish, but he hasn’t lacked when it comes to performance, ranking 5th for Next Gen Speed Rankings and “Performance Wise,” he’s been a factor to win 3 of the last 6 races. Last summer, Larson finished 19th, but he ran a lot better than his result. In the race, Larson started 5th, finished 6th in Stage #1, finished 4th in Stage #2, but then over the last stage, he just seemed to slowly fade back. Perhaps he got into the wall or didn’t keep up with adjustments, but something happened. In terms of Total Speed Rankings, Larson ranked 8th, but take note his speed over the segments were 6th, 5th, 7th, and then 27th. Last spring, Larson finished 37th after crashing early and then bringing out the last caution in another crash. In summer 2024, Larson was the class of the field but finished 4th, after losing the lead during a late restart. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, won Stage #2, led 263 laps, had a 2.0 average running position, and earned the best Driver Rating. In terms of speed stats, Larson had the best Total Speed Ranking and ranked 4th for Speed Late In A Run. In spring 2024, Larson was a top five contender but finished an asterisk mark 34th. In the race, Larson won Stage #1, finished 5th in Stage #2, led 15 laps but then in the last Stage his afternoon went south. On lap 235 while running in 3rd, Larson tagged the wall hard and then immediately came to pit road. Then shortly after that on lap 253 while running in 6th, Larson had a flat tire and crashed. In 2023, Larson won in the summer and then in the spring he crashed late while battling for the lead.
DraftKings $10,500/ FanDuel $13,500