World Cup play-off predictions: Gyokeres vs Lewandowski? Italian woe? Guler, Yildiz to star?

The Athletic has live coverage of Italy vs Northern Ireland in the 2026 World Cup qualifying play-off. 

This summer’s expanded World Cup will feature 48 teams for the first time, but we only know the identity of 42 entrants — and that’s where the play-offs come in.

Hosts Canada, Mexico and U.S. will be there, of course, while 39 other nations have qualified through various routes. Now there remain six places (or “Paths” in FIFA language) up for grabs, and they will be decided in the coming weeks via two playoff systems.

First, there is the intercontinental play-off, which, as the name suggests, features teams from across continents. Six, to be precise, who will be whittled down to two to take Paths 1 and 2.

Then there are the European play-offs, which will feature 16 nations who, through eight semi-finals and four finals, will send the final four spots (or Path A, B, C, D) to the World Cup.

With nations ranging from four-time winners Italy to New Caledonia and Suriname, there are a range of experiences and expectations — here, five of our writers pick their six to progress.

Tim Spiers

Say what you like about FIFA (usually with good reason), but I’m a fan of this newfangled March madness with all the play-offs at the same time, albeit playing one-off games on home turf in Europe feels like too much of an advantage to the hosts.

Take Wales, for example — if they had been drawn away at Bosnia and Herzegovina and then potentially away at Italy, their chances of progression would have been severely diminished.

Playing both potential matches in Cardiff, where they have such a good record in big matches, gives them the edge and I’m backing them to produce another shock result against Italy.

Elsewhere, the intriguing story of the week probably lies with Sweden, who recently gave new head coach Graham Potter a four-year contract. Sweden somehow didn’t win a match in their group and are still without Alexander Isak and Dejan Kulusevski, but you’d imagine a bit of service for Viktor Gyokeres from Anthony Elanga and Lucas Bergvall should be enough against Ukraine and probably Poland. A match between the latter would be a good shoot-out between Gyokeres and Robert Lewandowski.

Sweden’s Viktor Gyokeres (Bjorn Larsson Rosvall/TT news agency/AFP via Getty Images)

Talking of the best players being at the tournament, I’d be keen to see Turkey, and Arda Guler, progress.

In the intercontinental play-offs, we hope for fairytales but it’s hard to look past Bolivia and DR Congo.

Tim’s six picks: Wales, Sweden, Turkey, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Bolivia

Felipe Cardenas

I look at these play-off matches and I don’t see any clear favorites. That should make for a nail-biting few days of football. I would not want to be an Italian fan, to be quite honest. Italy has been unable to find a style of football that suits its present-day pool of players. I do, however, expect the Italians to leave it late and manage to qualify for the World Cup finals. My apologies to the Welsh.

Turkey’s path looks manageable if they get past a stingy Romania side that looks more like a play-off spoiler than a World Cup-caliber team. The Turks have quality footballers that observers of elite European football will recognize. Guler and Kenan Yildiz, both 20, could have huge performances this summer.

I like Sweden to find their pulse and earn a berth at the World Cup at the expense of Poland. And selfishly, seeing as how I am based in Atlanta, I’d love to see the Republic of Ireland progress and bring their traveling party to a booming soccer city that will embrace them.

Arder Guler and Kenan Yildiz would be great to see at the World Cup with Turkey (Nikolay Doychinov/AFP via Getty Images)

And finally in Mexico, the playoff bracket is, in my opinion, easier to predict. Jamaica will get by New Caledonia but will watch the World Cup from home. Bolivia has the passion and belief of a World Cup hopeful, but the team is too one-dimensional and inconsistent to win two do-or-die playoff games. The South Americans have not won in their last five fixtures. I expect that trend to continue.

Felipe’s six picks: DR Congo, Iraq, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, Republic of Ireland

Phil Hay

I’d love to think that FIFA’s inter-continental playoffs are about to give us a decent fairytale (New Caledonia at the World Cup would be great fun, largely because I doubt I’d recognise a single one of their players in the street), but I can’t see it. The minnows in that field look heavily outgunned.

On that basis, the real action is likely to come in the UEFA playoffs, which are hard to call — largely because none of the bigger hitters are really that good. Italy have the resources to squeak through. Poland’s chances rest on Robert Lewandowski. Turkey are as capable as any of the other contenders but in their current guise, none class as stellar international teams.

The Italians probably have the easiest path, if that’s the right way to phrase it. Poland would need to get by either Sweden or Ukraine and as wet as Sweden’s qualifying campaign has been, I still think they have it in them to pull something big out of the bag. It’s not as if their squad isn’t blessed with ability. The big threat to Turkey is probably Kosovo.

UEFA Path D is the one I’m struggling to pick from. Denmark should do it but the Republic of Ireland appear to have more lives than a cat. They’ll have home advantage in the final if they get there, and a Dublin crowd could see them home. But in saying all that, I’m plumping for North Macedonia.

Phil Hay’s six picks: DR Congo, Bolivia, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, North Macedonia.

Eduardo Tansley

UEFA Path B is a pick’em in which I could see any side but Albania winning. Graham Potter’s Sweden would have the home advantage over likely opponents Poland if they beat Ukraine.

In Path A, Italy could have to beat two of the United Kingdom’s Home Nations. Given their inconsistency in recent years, it wouldn’t be a shock if they lost away to Wales in the second game. But they did beat England at Wembley in the Euro 2020 final, and I can’t overlook the quality of Sandro Tonali, Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nicolo Barella, and co.

I’ve gone for Turkey in Path C, despite the prospect of a deciding away game at Slovakia or Kosovo. With Guler, Yildiz, and Hakan Calhanoglu, they have more attacking talent than the other teams and reached the Euro quarterfinals in 2024.

I want to say Republic of Ireland in Path D after their momentous end to group qualifying, beating Portugal and Hungary in dramatic fashion. But the Czech Republic and Denmark present tough tests with big tournament experience.

A win in Kingston against Curacao in their last CONCACAF qualifying group game would have seen Jamaica automatically qualify, but they drew 0-0 and head coach Steve McClaren resigned despite there still being playoffs to play. They will be favourites against New Caledonia, but Congo DR can await their opponent and have played an AFCON campaign since World Cup qualifying, in which they drew against the (later stripped) winners, Senegal, in the groups.

Bolivia beat Brazil, Chile, and Colombia in qualifying, showing a higher ceiling than either Iraq or Suriname. Their last World Cup appearance happened to be at the United States tournament in 1994.

Eduardo’s six picks: Congo DR, Bolivia, Italy, Sweden, Turkey, Republic of Ireland