PHILADELPHIA — After a spring of playing around with the ABS challenge system, what do we know about the Rangers’ ability to influence calls and leverage counts as they enter this brave semi-automated new world?
Using data made available by MLB’s StatCast system, here are some observations:
Don’t let Josh Smith challenge: The second baseman was 0 for 3 under the system. And it seems to be pretty common knowledge around the team. During a playful segment filmed by RSN reporter Laura Stickells, players were asked whom they wouldn’t trust to issue a challenge. Smith was the overwhelming answer.
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Do allow Jake Burger and Wyatt Langford to make challenges: Both were two of three on the challenge system.
Don’t let just about any other hitter challenge often: The Rangers were 8 for 24 on hitters’ challenges this spring. Their 33% success rate was tied for last with Arizona.
Do let Kyle Higashioka issue challenges from behind the plate: The catcher knows the zone and has a great eye. He was 3 for 3 from behind the plate, picking up a pair of strikeouts in the process. He was one of just 10 MLB catchers to be perfect with at least three challenges made. Danny Jansen was 3 for 5 on challenges.
Do let Nathan Eovaldi challenge: Eovaldi was actually the only Rangers pitcher to use the challenge system all spring. He issued two challenges in the spring opener, getting one call turned into a strikeout and losing the other. The general feeling was that the challenge system will more negatively impact pitchers than hitters because pitchers are liable to lose pitches that are initially called strikes on the edges of the zone, but may be off by a fraction of an inch.
Don’t let Evan Carter get too down about the challenge system: Ol’ “Full Count” Carter had the bad luck of having the most takes challenged by the opposing team. He had five calls challenged. Opponents won three of the five, including turning one 2-2 pitch from an announced full count to a strikeout.
Do spend more time on a challenge strategy: According to the Statcast system, trying to refine the challenge system into one overarching index, the Rangers just didn’t come out very well in spring training. They ranked 27th of 30 teams in net outcome vs. expected, an index that will obviously be refined as more data becomes available.
And a couple of miscellaneous notes: While spring training and the regular season are obviously different entities, Rangers hitters, the ones who made the opening day roster, most often challenged on counts of 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 and 0-0. Calls in each of those counts were challenged twice. Interestingly, there was not a single full-count challenged by Rangers hitters.
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