Virginia’s surge into NCAA tournament contention was as easy as 1-2-3.
Well, perhaps not easy. The 1-2-3 part? That holds up.
Thanks to a three-game winning streak highlighted by Saturday’s 11-9 defeat of Notre Dame, the Cavaliers (6-4) are firmly in the postseason picture and their eight-game skid against ACC opponents is kaput.
Consider for a moment Virginia’s rise in the RPI since mid-March:
Date
RPI
SOS
Last game
March 153514Lost at MarylandMarch 222415Beat UtahMarch 242014Beat DartmouthMarch 29129Beat Notre Dame
The best thing going for Virginia all along was opportunities. Losses to Richmond, Johns Hopkins, Towson and Maryland meant the Cavaliers probably wouldn’t have much to show for their non-conference schedule. (A victory over High Point may yet wind up as a top-20 victory.)
Yet there was always the four-game run through the ACC regular season, a stretch likely to lift Virginia’s metrics at least a bit, regardless of outcome. Last year, the numbers rose even as Lars Tiffany’s team plummeted to a 6-8 finish. Saturday’s victory over previously undefeated Notre Dame instantly transformed the Cavaliers into a viable NCAA possibility.
Duke, Syracuse and North Carolina are still to come, followed by a home game against Drexel and (possibly) the ACC tournament. There are plenty of valuable resume-improving chances nestled in that remaining schedule, and the Cavaliers’ rise isn’t necessarily complete.
Still, they are firmly in the conversation, which wasn’t the case just a couple weeks ago.
The following is based on RPI data available on Monday, March 30.
AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (10)
Team
W-L
RPI
SOS
T5
T10
T20
LOSSES 21+
Richmond9-04250-01-03-0—Harvard8-15161-11-13-1—Penn State6-3851-11-14-12 losses vs. 21+Georgetown4-41030-20-31-4—Boston U5-416100-20-21-3at Colgate (37)Towson6-317240-00-11-2at Loyola (27)Sacred Heart10-023730-00-00-0—Robert Morris8-328400-10-20-2at St. Bonaventure (57)Jacksonville5-430320-10-20-3—UAlbany5-443420-00-10-3at UMass (24)
Richmond could have scored 50 goals against Hobart (2-7 with an RPI of 53) and it still would have taken a metrics hit. The same is not true of the Spiders’ non-conference finale Saturday in Chicago against Notre Dame. That’s a real opportunity to bolster Richmond’s profile. … Harvard took its first loss Sunday, but stumbling against North Carolina didn’t damage the Crimson’s overall profile. …
Thought experiment: Is “Penn State lost at home in early February to Villanova” this year’s “Ohio State lost its opener at home to Utah?” The Buckeyes went on to win the Big Ten and earn a No. 4 seed last year; the Nittany Lions could follow a similar track to Selection Sunday this spring. … Georgetown enters the fray after demolishing Denver 17-5 to open Big East play. But the Hoyas’ strength of schedule number will not get better; their four remaining league opponents own an average RPI of 49.5. …
The Patriot League will almost certainly be a one-bid league, which should make Boston University’s trip to Loyola on Saturday significant since the winner will take the outright lead and have an inside track to playing host to the league tournament. Or maybe not; the No. 1 seed hasn’t won a Patriot tournament final since 2018. … Towson once again has control of the CAA after winning its 20th consecutive regular season conference game. Thanks to tiebreakers, the Tigers would effectively be two games up with three to play if they handle Monmouth on Saturday. …
Sacred Heart leads Division I in road victories with six. Next up with four: Massachusetts, Penn, Syracuse and Villanova. … Robert Morris has won seven in a row, the third-longest active streak in Division I behind Sacred Heart (10) and Richmond (9). …
Jacksonville maintains a slight RPI advantage over Utah, which sits at 32nd. Both teams won their conference openers over the weekend. … UAlbany has won its first three America East games by an average of 5.3 goals. The Great Danes get Binghamton (2-7) at home on Saturday.
