Lionsgate
There have been some big music biopics in the past. “Walk the Line” chronicled the life of Johnny Cash and ultimately won Reese Witherspoon an Oscar. “Bohemian Rhapsody” took on Queen and became one of the highest-grossing non-franchise movies of all time. Now, we have director Antoine Fuqua’s “Michael,” which takes a look at the King of Pop himself, Michael Jackson. It’s poised to set a new high bar for musical biopics.
While estimates vary widely, “Michael” is expected to pull in between $75 and $90 million domestically when it opens next weekend, per Box Office Theory. Earlier estimates were more conservative, in the $60 million-plus range (per Deadline). Either way, even on the low end, that would likely give it the biggest opening ever for a music biopic, topping “Straight Outta Compton” ($60 million) and the aforementioned “Bohemian Rhapsody” ($51 million).
On the very high end? It could become the biggest opening for a biopic of any kind. Christopher Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” became the highest-grossing biopic of all time after its $82 million opening in 2023, en route to $975 million worldwide. Either way, the numbers right now look very friendly for Lionsgate’s big-budget look at Jackson’s life.
The film tells the story of Michael Jackson’s life beyond his music, from his days as the lead of the Jackson Five to his years as a solo artist, culminating in his becoming the biggest entertainer in the world. Jaafar Jackson, the real-life nephew of the late pop star, is playing him in the biopic. The stacked cast also includes the likes of Nia Long (“Missing”), Laura Harrier (“Spider-Man: Homecoming”), Miles Teller (“The Gorge”), and Colman Domingo (“The Running Man”).
Michael will lean in on one of the biggest pop stars of all time
Lionsgate
Everything points to “Michael” being a massive hit. Queen is hugely popular globally, but nobody can compete with Michael Jackson. “Thriller” is the highest-selling album of all time. He had 13 number-one hits on the Billboard charts. He’s second only to The Beatles in terms of total albums sold (per ChartMasters). So, how high can this movie fly?
“Bohemian Rhapsody” made $910 million worldwide. That’s the high watermark. Even something like “Elvis” did $290 million, a magic that “Priscilla” couldn’t capture at the box office, but that’s another story. Elvis Presley was much more of an American star than a global one. So $300 million is probably the floor here, especially if this movie opens closer to $90 million than $60 million.
Even on the conservative end, we could probably look at something like “Twisters” ($81 million opening/$372 million worldwide). That would be almost enough to justify the $155 million budget. On the more realistic end, assuming audiences like the movie, we could probably look at “Fifty Shades of Grey” ($85 million opening/$569 million worldwide). And a music biopic is more inviting than that movie on the surface, for sure.
There have been setbacks along the way. “Michael” had to reshoot the entire third act due to behind-the-scenes drama, largely for legal reasons. That added to the cost, compromised the original story, and increased the pressure. Even so, the early numbers still suggest this will be a huge win for all involved. If audiences are on board and it has legs? The sky is the limit.
“Michael” hits theaters on April 24, 2026.
