FRIDAY MIDDAY: The first numbers for Lionsgate‘s Michael are in and it’s shaping up to be a $35M-$40M Friday, which includes those $12.6M previews. The Friday through Sunday range is $85M-$95M, and there’s a path to higher, it just boils down whether this is fan-frontloaded.
“Something special is happening, people are dancing in the theaters,” says one source close to the film.
Easily that start is the best for Lionsgate post Covid besting John Wick: Chapter 4 ($73.8M), and of course that completes the record opening for a musical biopic previously held by Universal’s Straight Outta Compton ($60.2M).
Looking back at 2018’s Bohemian Rhapsody, also produced by Michael producer Graham King (who clearly knows how to dramatize and navigate complex performers’ stories for the big screen, working feasibly with their estates), that pic posted a Friday/previews figure of $18.8M and then stayed even in its Saturday with $18.8M for a $51M North American debut.
Social media analytics firm RelishMix measured 417.9M Michael followers across TikTok, YouTube, X, Facebook, and Instagram, which is very strong and 2.2X above music bio-pic genre norms and such musical biopics (pre-opening) as Elvis (278.6M), Bohemian Rhapsody (242.1M), Rocketman (113.5M) but also biopics like House of Gucci (407M). Jaafar Jackson’s growing social network is activated — and has built to 500K fans — plus Nia Long at 10M, Laura Harrier at 1.5M, Coleman Domingo at 1.5M and Juliano Krue Valdi at 1.4M.
Reports RelishMix, “Convo runs positive for Michael, with fans treating trailers like a time machine and the casting as emotional insurance; ‘I literally just got shivers and goosebumps.’ Legacy worship is loud and specific, framing MJ as untouchable cultural capital; “No matter what anyone says about him… he changed the world’ and ‘Long live the KING of Music and Entertainment.’ Craft nerds clock the mimicry, voice, and movement like a performance audit; ‘The attention to detail in his movements is incredible’ and ‘That voice is spot on. I’m impressed.’ The family angle reads as authenticity and brand safety at once; ‘Feels really fitting they have his nephew playing MJ’ and ‘He’s a clone of Michael.’ Biopic comps show up as upside signals and expectations management; ‘I loved Bohemian Rhapsody‘ and ‘as amazing as the American Dream movie.’”
Overall, a strong weekend with spring’s holdovers maintaining wind in their sales despite Michael‘s moonwalking at the B.O.
2. Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Uni) 3,732 theaters Fri $4.6M 3-day $20.5M (-44%), Total $385.7M/Wk 4
3. Project Hail Mary (Amz) 3,510 theaters, Fri $3M 3-day $12M (-41%), Total $304.2M/Wk 6
4. Lee Cronin’s The Mummy (NL/WB) 3,304 theaters, Fri $1.5M, 3-day $5.1M (-62%), Total $22.9M/Wk 2
5. The Drama (A24) 1,989 theaters, Fri $800K 3-day $2.6M (-45%), Total $44.6M/Wk 4
FRIDAY AM, AFTER EXCLUSIVE: Thriller Nights: ‘Michael’ Dancing To $12.6M In Previews, CinemaScore Currently ‘A-’ The previews for Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic Michael from Antoine Fuqua came in at $12.6 million. Of that amount, $3.8M came from the fan Imax/PLF screenings Wednesday night.
Early PostTrak from Screen Engine and Comscore on Thursday night shows 5 stars, 88% positive and a massive 81% definite recommend, which Lionsgate can take to the ban; that’s the big stat that indicates legs. Families repped 36% on Thursday, couples (married and non-married) repped 31%, with diversity demos showing Black moviegoers leading at 36%, Latino/Hispanic and Caucasian tied at 25% apiece and 8% Asian American. It’s female-leaning at 56% and a young crowd: 58% were under 35, with the 18-34 bunch at 55%. Fifty percent said they came because they’re MJ fans (subject matter/plot).
RELATED: ‘Michael’ Begins To Boogie At International Box Office With $18.5M; Record First Day For Musical Biopic In Most Territories
Rotten Tomatoes audience score is still strong at 96%, but CinemaScore polled the preview audience on Wednesday and Michael received an A-. That’s the same as musical biopics Elvis and Rocketman but a half-grade under Graham King’s Bohemian Rhapsody, Straight Outta Compton and Bob Marley: One Love which all nabbed an A. CinemaScore usually polls the Friday night opening crowd and posts the results from that tonight. The cinema pollster apparently is doing another update for this pic.
We’ll have more updates for you later. Michael is booked at 3,955 domestic locations, including 1,700 Imax and premium large-format auditoriums.
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The rest of the week went down like this:
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie (Uni) 4,284 theaters, Wk $45M (-46%), Total $365.3M/Wk 3
- Project Hail Mary (AMZ) 3,820 theaters, Wk $27.5M (-15%), Total $292.2M/Wk 5
- Lee Cronin’s The Mummy (NL) 3,304 theaters, Wk $17.8M/Wk 1
- The Drama (A24) 2,629 theaters, Wk $7.1M (-44%), Total $41.9M/Wk 3
- You, Me & Tuscany (Uni) 3,157 theaters Wk $5.5M (-48%), Total $16.1M/Wk 2
EXCLUSIVE: The walk-up business for Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic, Michael, is doing significantly more than just easing down the road.
Earlier tonight, we heard they were at $10 million, then $11M. Now the combined previews from yesterday’s Imax/PLF fan 6 p.m. showtimes, plus today’s showtimes that began at noon, are between $12.5M-$13.5M per sources. That’s easily the best ever for a musical biopic (Straight Outta Compton‘s preview cash was $4.96M, which translated into a record $60.2M start for the subgenre).
We told you earlier today that we heard presales for the movie directed by Antoine Fuqua, produced by Graham King and written by John Logan were exceeding that of Project Hail Mary. And here we are with Michael showing better moves than Ryan Gosling and alien Rocky. That pic made $12M in combined previews, which led to an $80.5M opening.
But there’s more: Michael‘s previews bury those of John Wick: Chapter 4 ($8.9M), which was the biggest opening for Lionsgate post-Covid, debuting to $73.8M. Arguably, Michael‘s preview cash is the best for Lionsgate since 2015’s The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 ($16M).
There’s a slew of other previews Michael is beating, i.e., Dune: Part Two ($12M), Toy Story 4 ($12M), A Minecraft Movie ($10.55M) and Oppenheimer ($10.5M) to name a few.
A great sign for business: Michael is 96% with Rotten Tomatoes audiences, burying its 40% critical score (film reviewers have clutched their pearls as Michael doesn’t delve into the accusations leveled against the King of Pop). However, if you’re a smart moviegoer, you’ll notice the groundwork Fuqua is laying for a part two.
We told you yesterday that the first day plus previews for Michael abroad via Universal was $18.5M; the pic is breaking records for a musical biopic on day one.
