The NBA’s pursuit of an effective anti-tanking strategy took a significant step forward on Tuesday when league officials presented an updated draft lottery reform proposal — deemed the “3-2-1” system — to all 30 teams in a virtual general manager’s meeting.
The proposal, which was obtained by The Athletic and would go into effect for the 2027 draft if approved, aims to create an environment that heavily incentivizes teams at the bottom end of the standings to win their way up the ranks as a way of improving their lottery odds. The lottery would expand from 14 teams to 16 in this system, with lottery balls drawn for all 16 qualifying teams. Here’s what would determine how many balls each team gets, as well as other rules that are part of the pitch.
- Three balls (8.1 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick, seven teams in all): The teams that did not qualify for the playoffs or Play-In Tournament but avoided finishing with one of the three worst records.
- Two balls (5.4 percent chance, seven teams): Teams that finished in the bottom three, and were thus subject to a “draft relegation” provision in which they are penalized by losing one lottery ball (going from three to two). In an attempt to create a floor for how far these teams might fall, the “draft relegated” teams would pick no lower than 12th, whereas all other lottery-eligible teams could fall as far as the 16th pick. The ninth and 10th Play-In seeds in each conference would also receive two lottery balls each.
- One ball (2.7 percent chance, two teams): The losers of the Play-In games between the seventh and eighth seeds in each conference would receive just one lottery ball.
The proposal also includes several rules that, if approved, would further reduce a team’s ability to tank its way into better draft odds while also giving the league much greater leeway to punish would-be offenders.
- No team would be able to win the top pick in consecutive years or be able to win three consecutive top-five picks.
- Teams would not be able to protect picks in the 12 to 15 slots going forward.
- The proposal includes a sunset provision, with the new system expiring following the 2029 draft and requiring an affirmative vote of the Board of Governors to either continue with the system or transition to a new one.
- Under the proposal, the league would have expanded disciplinary authority to regulate tanking by having the option to reduce teams’ lottery odds and/or modify teams’ draft positions.
With an owner’s vote on draft lottery reform looming at a Board of Governors meeting on May 28, and commissioner Adam Silver vowing to make changes that restore competitive integrity to the game, this marks the first time the league’s stakeholders have elevated one specific proposal, as opposed to several, as they move closer to firming up the final version. The debate about this offering, which league sources say is a combination of the three that were proposed during the last general managers’ meeting on Feb. 21, is now expected to continue during the final stages of the process.
Per league sources, this latest proposal was well received by the majority of the league’s GMs. There was, the sources say, a belief from some GMs in the meeting that the bottom-three teams should be assured at least a top-10 pick, as opposed to top 12, and that this current structure in the proposal is too punitive. There was also a sense from some that the seventh and eighth seeds should be treated the same, receiving one ball each regardless of who wins that Play-In game. Those sorts of specifics will continue to be hashed out in the weeks ahead.
In the days leading up to this latest meeting, league officials and general managers alike had indicated that Option No. 1 from the previous GM’s meeting — an 18-team lottery system in which the bottom 10 teams would all have an 8 percent chance at the top pick — was widely seen as the heavy front-runner. But with the NBA’s executive vice president of strategy and analytics Evan Wasch leading the way, league sources say the decision was made to formulate a plan that took components from all three of the previous proposals. As has been the case throughout this process, changes could still be made to the proposal ahead of the Board of Governors meeting.
Silver and his staff have made it a priority for this process to be collaborative, as evidenced by the Tuesday meeting with general managers that was added to the schedule for the purpose of making this pitch. The league’s competition committee, which includes select general managers, coaches and players and typically heads these sorts of exercises, has also played an integral role in the process.
