“You have to kill them.”
This was JJ Redick’s response when asked about the challenges of closing out a team in a playoff series. His team experienced it firsthand when the Houston Rockets staved off elimination in Game 4. Then, with a chance to deliver the death blow in front of their home crowd, the Lakers once again failed to get the job done, losing 99-93 in Game 5 on Wednesday night.
Houston is very much still alive.
What once seemed inevitable has suddenly become murky. The Rockets have found things that work. Shots are starting to go in, lineups are starting to click, and most importantly, they believe again. And that is what makes them dangerous.
Fortunately, the Lakers still have two more chances to move on. But if their performances in the last two games are any indication, they’re going to have to not only match the Rockets’ desperation but exceed it to advance to the second round and avoid being the first team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 lead.
Here are the biggest takeaways from the deflating loss.
Before the series, many people fairly questioned how the Lakers would consistently generate points without their two leading scorers. They ended up doing so on the back of LeBron James and by getting surprising levels of production from Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard in the first three games.
However, with Smart and Kennard both falling back to earth, so has the Lakers’ offense. The team averaged 106.6 points per contest against the Rockets in the first three games. That has plummeted in the last two as the Lakers have only put up a measly 94.5.
There are a myriad of reasons why this occurred. For one, the Rockets deserve credit. They have upped their intensity, leveraged their athletic advantages and found strategies that are yielding better results.
As a result, it is time for the Lakers to adjust and also clean up what they can control.
Turnovers continue to be an issue, demonstrated by their 15 turnovers compared to just 19 assists in Game 5. They’ve also gone cold from the perimeter after scorching the nets earlier in the series. Of their last 49 attempts from beyond the arc, the Lakers have made just 12 (24.4%).
Austin Reaves’ return should hopefully help both of these areas. He was excellent in his first half back but faltered in the second. His uneven play was to be expected after missing as much time as he has, but as this series has extended, it has become evident how much the Lakers missed his dynamism and now need it more than ever.
It was not all bleak for the offense. Beyond Reaves’ encouraging first two quarters, James also proved he is still a problem for Houston as he met their force with his own in the form of his bulldozing drives. And perhaps the biggest bright spot was Deandre Ayton, who had arguably his best game as a Laker, scoring 18 points and pulling down 17 rebounds (10 offensive).
Although it’s clear where the Lakers’ improvements need to come from, doing so may be easier said than done if they can’t tap into what made them successful earlier in the series.
It only took a few possessions into the matchup to realize that JJ Redick wasn’t going to let Alperen Şengün be the one to beat him in the first round.
With the Lakers’ natural inclination to switch nearly everything, the Rockets have routinely sought out Şengün in the post whenever he got a smaller player defending him. The Lakers would respond by sending help to get the ball out of the big’s hands.
This same strategy was applied in Game 5. But unlike in previous contests, the outcome was different when the mismatch occurred.
Throughout the series, the Lakers have routinely dared the other Rockets to beat them, specifically from the perimeter. And for the most part, they have been unable to. This has allowed the Lakers to continue to show Şengün two defenders without fear of the open threes it would create elsewhere. In Game 5, that gameplan finally backfired.
Between the attention given to Şengün and the Lakers’ clear emphasis to shut off the paint whenever a drive occurred, the Rockets attempted 40 threes on Wednesday night as a result. It’s a staggering number given that the 3-ball accounted for nearly half of their total shots (48%), and considering Houston had the fifth-fewest 3-point frequency in the regular season (32.3%).
Between taking and making more, the Rockets ended up knocking down seven more threes than the Lakers in Game 5. Even if the Lakers were able to clean up other areas, that differential would almost always be too difficult to overcome.
Although it may be easy to call for change given the recent results, it is important to note that Redick has shown a reluctance to react rashly to a small sample size.
That said, this is the playoffs. If there was ever a time to change course, it’s now. Between now and Friday, Redick and his coaching staff will likely return to their whiteboard and have to find the answers to problems that previously were hypothetical and now very real.
For example, will he trust his bigs to play Şengün more traditionally in Game 6 in an attempt to limit the open looks from the outside? Is there lineup tinkering to be done? How does he balance the usage distribution between Reaves and the players who played well in his absence?
Despite the Rockets’ recent surge, the Lakers are still in a good spot. But that does not mean they can approach Game 6 and beyond with the notion that they have margin for error. This is a series again, and the Lakers will have to treat it as such from top to bottom if they hope to avoid a historic collapse.
Pressure is mounting, and how they respond to it will be telling.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise stated. You can follow Alex on Bluesky at @alexregla.bsky.social.
