ANAHEIM, Calif. – The previous playoff meeting between the Edmonton Oilers and Anaheim Ducks, in 2017, had the Oilers — and their ascending superstar partnership of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — returning to the playoffs after a 10-season absence and facing the five-time Pacific Division champion Ducks, powered by the longtime duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry.
Nine years ago, those upstart Oilers pushed the playoff-tested Ducks to a Game 7 before falling, as Anaheim advanced to the Western Conference final. Now, in this first-round series, the roles have been reversed. The Ducks have moved back into the postseason neighborhood after eight years away. They’re trying to evict an Edmonton team that has won nine rounds over the last four postseason and played for the Stanley Cup in the last two.
The Oilers forced a Game 6 at Honda Center on Thursday night with their 4-1 Game 5 victory at home, and they’re keen on shifting the pressure to a Ducks club that has 14 players going through the emotional swings of a playoff series for the first time. This could be the start of a new contention era for Anaheim. This is keeping a championship window open for Edmonton.
The odds remain decisively in the Ducks’ favor, as more than 90 percent of teams that grab a 3-1 series lead eventually close it out. But both teams have found a path to success in this series. Can the Ducks close it out, and can the Oilers force a nervy Game 7? Here’s the path for each team on Thursday.
How the Oilers can keep going
Roll two scoring lines
Through four games, Edmonton’s second line — Draisaitl between Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen — had been its best. With those three on the ice, the Oilers have outscored the Ducks 5-0, outshot them 33-16 and controlled nearly 68 percent of the expected goal share. That made it surprising, to some degree, when Knoblauch split them up for Game 5, moving Draisaitl to McDavid’s left wing and Kapanen to his right. That left Podkolzin and Zach Hyman, who’d been McDavid’s regular left winger, with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who moved to the middle from McDavid’s right.
The goal was to create two more offensively capable lines, and it paid off immediately when Podkolzin opened the scoring 2:22 into the game. Hyman made it 2-0 a bit more than six minutes later, and Nugent-Hopkins assisted on both goals. Long-standing chemistry between Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman helped, Knoblauch said. In more than 1,600 minutes with the two on the ice together over the last three seasons, Edmonton has won their minutes 93-75 and dramatically controlled the run of play.
The drink-stirrer, though, seemed to be Podkolzin. The 24-year-old winger scored 19 goals on the regular season and brings a solid combination of skill and sandpaper to the mix, and his teammates appreciate it — they often fight for the right to play with him, Knoblauch said.
“Whatever line Podkolzin’s on, he usually elevates it,” Knoblauch said. “Whether it’s a checking line scoring the line, usually if he’s on it, he helps it.”
Get McDavid and Draisaitl on the same page
The other part of Knoblauch’s plan, playing McDavid with Draisaitl and Kapanen, was a bit less successful. Draisaitl tipped in a shot by Evan Bouchard to put Edmonton up 3-0, which was crucial, but they spent the majority of their night chasing the puck. Anaheim out-attempted Edmonton 12-7 with those three on the ice and held an expected goal share of nearly 80 percent. Outscoring opponents is the name of the game, and they handled that part of business in Game 5, but in terms of opportunities, it was a low-volume night.
Until 2025-26, putting McDavid and Draisaitl together was a coach’s get-out-of-jail-free card. This past regular season, though, Edmonton won their 317:43 at five-on-five by just an 18-16 margin. That’s a bit worse than their expected metrics would suggest, something Knoblauch alluded to on Wednesday.
“Whatever it is, they just haven’t been able to outscore (opponents), but there’s definitely some chemistry,” Knoblauch said. “Ultimately, we felt that we’re going to put the game in our two best players’ hands and let them dictate how this game is going to go.”
Kapanen, meanwhile, adds skating ability and a hot stick to the mix. He leads Edmonton with four goals in the series, half of his regular-season total.
Keep No. 97 relatively healthy
Numbers aside, McDavid looked more like himself in Game 5 than at any point since appearing to injure his ankle in Game 2. After the game, he said there was “never a doubt” that he’d play, despite Knoblauch characterizing him as a game-time decision on Tuesday morning. Knoblauch, for what it’s worth, walked that back a bit on Wednesday, too, noting that he’d been asked about McDavid and Jason Dickinson’s health in the same question. Both are “banged up,” Knoblauch said, so he gave a generalized answer. He also said that McDavid will play in Game 6.
It never seemed particularly likely, barring some sort of off-ice serious aggravation, that McDavid would miss the game. He’s not 100 percent, but he’s also not visibly laboring on the ice or in the dressing room, and he hasn’t appeared to be wearing any type of wrap or brace on his ankle during his media availability.
Playing with Draisaitl also helps ease the load on him a bit, as Knoblauch noted. As a natural center, Draisaitl can take faceoffs and, when warranted, act as the first forward back in the defensive zone.
More of the same from Ingram
Though Tristan Jarry replaced Connor Ingram in goal for Game 4, Knoblauch told Ingram he’d return to the net if the Oilers faced elimination — a bit of communication Ingram said he appreciated, especially after he allowed six goals on 38 shots in Game 3.
“I was frustrated after Game 3, just with myself and what was going on, so to give myself a little break mentally and physically was huge, I think,” Ingram said. “And (Jarry) came in and gave us a great game and gave us a chance, so it was a good idea.”
Ingram’s biggest save might have come on Anaheim’s fourth shot, an in-tight chance by Leo Carlsson that could’ve cut Edmonton’s lead to 3-1 at the first intermission. In the last two periods of Game 5, Edmonton sat back too much for Knoblauch’s liking, to the tune of 1.77 expected goals against vs. just 0.22 expected goals for. Ingram faced 21 shots and stopped them all.
“His talent is making hard saves look easy, just because he’s compact, he doesn’t move very much,” Knoblauch said. “Their perimeter shots, they were dangerous because they had really good (net-front presence) and you’re not sure if the goalie is gonna pick it up. I thought he was on his game, because he was picking those up.”
It’s also worth noting that ugly expected goal share aside, the Oilers generally did a more effective job at pushing the Ducks to the perimeter, clearing rebounds and limiting odd-man rushes. There are miles to go, but given poor defensive play had been Edmonton’s single biggest issue in going down 3-1, it’s a start.
How the Ducks can close it out
Score the first goal and play from ahead
The Ducks have allowed the first goal in all five games. That included Tuesday, when Edmonton needed only 2:22 to jump out on top. Now, these Ducks have been Team Comeback all season. It didn’t stop with 26 come-from-behind victories during the regular season, 13 when trailing in the third period. In Game 4, they erased deficits of 2-0 and 3-2.
While they’ve proven this season that their best hockey often comes when they’re charging from behind, winger Alex Killorn conceded that continuing to do that against the experienced Oilers is akin to playing with fire. “Maybe a little bit,” Killorn said.
“We just got to be ready for puck drop and then take care of business,” Ducks coach Joel Quenneville said. “And that is playing the right way for 60 minutes. We’re way more effective when we’re playing normal hockey instead of trying to run and gun and for 60 minutes basically.”
Keep skating and continue to dominate possession
The Ducks have younger legs. Their team speed has given the Oilers fits, with Edmonton defenseman Darnell Nurse stating they needed to force Anaheim into a “muddier track” to skate through. But their up-tempo style and frenetic pace resulted in controlling five-on-five play in Games 3 through 5.
Natural Stat Trick charted the Ducks with Corsi-for ratings of 59.05, 57.58 and 65.00, respectively, in those three contests. They’ve put 35 more shots on goal than the Oilers since Game 2, with most of the difference coming at even strength. Expected goal rates were 57.69, 60.74 and 61.88, respectively. Credit should go to Edmonton for a defensive effort in Game 5, when it cleared any rebounds and give Ingram a clear view on shots. But in the opening periods of games 1 and 5, the Ducks were either tentative or sluggish, and they paid the price by giving up a combined five goals.
“I felt at times we didn’t look as fast as maybe we have in the first four,” Ducks winger Troy Terry said. “That’s credit to them, too. The way we played those first four games and when we’re at our best is, we’re skating, we’re physical, we’re making it hard on their (defense) with our speed. At times, we did that, but a little too much damage was done at the start. They played some lockdown (defense).”
Forcing Ingram to withstand heavy flurries and make multiple stops in possessions should be on the Ducks’ menu, instead of the one-and-dones he mostly faced in protecting a Game 5 lead.
Better defensive play from second line
Killorn has three goals to tie Ryan Poehling and Cutter Gauthier for the team lead. Mikael Granlund has six points, with four of them coming in a 7-4 Game 3 win. The two have helped produce a balanced attack, but four of their five combined goals have come on the power play and they, along with linemate Beckett Sennecke, have given a lot back in five-on-five action.
The line has been on the ice for a total of five even-strength goals, and 20 against. It is getting caved in when matched against the Oilers’ second line, even as Knoblauch have moved personnel around on his top two lines. Kapanen has a series-leading four goals along with a plus-7 rating at even strength. Podkolzin had two goals and three assists while operating at a plus-6 in five-on-five. Both have emerged as critical support pieces for Edmonton.
Sennecke scored his first playoff goal in the Ducks’ third-period explosion in Game 3, but that is his only point of the series. The 20-year-old has been on the ice for a team-leading eight goals at even strength, followed by Killorn with seven. Chris Kreider is another forward who has had a quiet series. Kreider was replaced on the top line by Gauthier and is playing on the third line with Poehling and Mason McTavish. The left wing has two assists but is playing under 13 minutes on average and has only four shots on goal.
Dostál delivers his best game
For all the talk about the Oilers’ goaltending not being at a championship level, Lukáš Dostál hasn’t been a shining star in his first time under the postseason spotlight. Quenneville said “everybody” was at fault for their terrible start to Game 5 and while Dostál was pulled early to change the momentum, the record states he allowed three goals on nine shots.
It has been a rough statistical series for the 25-year-old, whom the Ducks made their undisputed No. 1 with a five-year extension at an average annual value of $6.25 million. Among playoff goalies, his .864 save percentage is worse than all except Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Lukkonen, who hasn’t started for the Sabres since Game 2 of their series against Boston. Even Ingram (.878) has jumped above him after an effective 29-save outing on Tuesday.
Dostál had a clutch third period in Game 4 that allowed the Ducks to reach overtime and win to grab a 3-1 series lead. Quenneville swatted away a question about concern over his netminder. But Dostál needs to have a strong game for the Ducks to win their first postseason series since the second-round triumph over the Oilers in a previous era.
