2026 NBA playoffs first-round series odds: Pistons, Rockets favored to force Game 7s – The Athletic
With three Game 6s taking place on Thursday, two teams advanced to the second round. The New York Knicks emphatically did so with a scoreline that should be reserved for horror movies. The Minnesota Timberwolves, or what is left of them, also advanced with an upset win against the Denver Nuggets.
We will get at least one Game 7 this round, though, after Philadelphia pulled away from Boston in the second half to force a decisive game on Saturday.
On Friday, three more Game 6s will take place. Cleveland is the only team favored to close out its series, while Detroit and Houston are favored to force Game 7s.
This is a look at the odds for all eight first-round series in the NBA playoffs. It will be updated daily throughout the playoffs, as the odds to win each series will shift with results.
Eastern Conference playoffs
No. 1 Detroit Pistons vs. No. 8 Orlando Magic
Magic lead series 3-2
Game 6: 7 p.m. ET, Friday
Series odds: Magic -120, Pistons +100
Cade Cunningham and Paolo Banchero had quite the duel in Wednesday’s Game 5. Both scored 45 points while shooting better than 50 percent from the field.
Cunningham was 13-for-23 from the field, made all 14 of his free throw attempts and added five assists. Banchero shot 17-for-31 with nine rebounds and seven assists.
The one issue for Banchero, and the Magic in general, was free-throw shooting. Banchero was 5-for-12 from the line, and the Magic were 16-for-30. In a 116-109 loss, those free throws loomed large.
The Pistons never trailed and led by as many as 17 points. Orlando didn’t have Franz Wagner, who was out with a calf injury.
The Magic are still favored to win the series, albeit at barely better than a coin flip. The Pistons are favored by 3.5 points in Game 6, though.
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
Series tied 3-3
Game 7: 7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
Series odds: Celtics -310, 76ers +250
Of all series to go seven games, this one would not be high on the list. That’s especially true after Boston destroyed Philadelphia in Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead.
The 76ers have come up with back-to-back resounding victories to force a Game 7 that did not look feasible a few days ago. Boston is favored by 8.5 points for Game 7, which isn’t a huge surprise given the regular season both teams had (the Celtics won 11 more games than the 76ers) and that the game is in Boston. Still, momentum is clearly on Philadelphia’s side.
Philly led by as many as 23 points in Game 6 and didn’t allow any Celtic to score 20 points. Boston’s big problem was, you guessed it, 3-point shooting. The Celtics were 12-for-41 (29 percent) from 3-point range. Jayson Tatum also suffered an apparent calf injury, which is a major concern for a player just under a year removed from an Achilles injury.
Tyrese Maxey poured in 30 points for the 76ers, Paul George added 23 and Joel Embiid had 19 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. That’ll do.
Bring on Game 7.
No. 3 New York Knicks vs. No. 6 Atlanta Hawks
Knicks win series 4-2
What on earth was that? The Knicks won Game 6 by 51 points. On the road. In a game Atlanta needed to win to stay alive.
The Hawks actually led 9-5, but managed to trail 40-15 after a quarter and it continued to get worse. New York led 83-36 at halftime.
All of the numbers from that game are jaw-dropping. It’s hard to think back on when the Hawks led the series 2-1.
The Knicks now move on and remain a contender in the Eastern Conference. No one in the East has been dominant in the first round, so the Knicks entering the second round on a three-game winning streak is compelling.
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors
Cavaliers lead series 3-2
Game 6: 7:30 p.m. ET, Friday
Series odds: Cavaliers -1600, Raptors +900
Cleveland fans probably thought “Here we go again” multiple times in Game 5. The Raptors jumped out to a 22-10 lead, only to trail by the end of the first quarter. Then Toronto rebuilt a 12-point lead early in the third quarter. Cleveland appeared to pull away for good with an 11-point lead with less than five minutes left, only to see Toronto chip away at the deficit.
Ultimately, Cleveland held on for a 125-120 win. The Cavs lead the series 3-2 and are heavily favored to advance.
The home team has won every game in this series, which is a good sign for Toronto in Game 6. However, Brandon Ingram left after scoring just one point in 11 minutes due to injury, and Scottie Barnes was hobbled for much of the second half and didn’t make a field goal after halftime. A healthy Toronto has proven it can make this a series, but those injuries could play a major role.
Cleveland is favored by 4.5 points in Game 6.
Western Conference playoffs
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Phoenix Suns
Thunder win series 4-0
Oklahoma City was mostly unbothered by Phoenix in a four-game sweep. The closest game was a 131-122 victory in Game 4.
The defending champs were the favorites to win the NBA title entering the postseason and did nothing to change that. The Thunder earned a bit of a break and awaits two teams battling injuries in the Lakers and Rockets.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Portland Trail Blazers
Spurs win series 4-1
Victor Wembanyama’s concussion and the consternation it caused Spurs fans are a thing of the past. The Spurs advanced past Portland with no drama after that. San Antonio won Game 3 on the road in Wembanyama’s absence, came back from a 19-point deficit in Game 4 and cruised in Game 5.
The Spurs led for the entire game and led by as many as 28 points to put the series away on Tuesday.
With Boston not quite looking sharp and Denver trailing Minnesota in its series, the Spurs are a logical and worthy second team in the odds behind Oklahoma City to win the NBA title.
No. 3 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves
Timberwolves win series 4-2
This series was as much about who wasn’t there as who was. By the time Game 6 rolled around, Minnesota was without star Anthony Edwards, sharpshooter Donte DiVincenzo and even Ayo Dosunmu, who had stepped up earlier in the series in the absence of the latter duo. Denver was also without Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson, who started 40 games in the regular season.
It definitely feels like a massive missed opportunity for Denver, which should be able to beat Minnesota without its best player, Edwards.
The Timberwolves weren’t even favored to win the series heading into Game 6, let alone the game itself. Edwards could return for the next round against San Antonio, but DiVincenzo won’t. The Spurs are heavily favored in that series.
No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 5 Houston Rockets
Lakers lead series 3-2
Game 6: 9:30 p.m. ET, Friday
Series odds: Lakers -350, Rockets +275
Austin Reaves returned for Game 5, but the Lakers still couldn’t close out Houston. Now, things get really interesting.
Houston has won two in a row in the series and gets to return home. Even without Kevin Durant, Houston is alive and well. The Rockets are favored by 3.5 points in Game 6.
Reaves scored 22 points in his return, but most of his damage came from the free throw line. He shot just 4-for-16 from the field. The Lakers will need his shooting touch to return sooner rather than later.
The Lakers are still solid favorites to advance, but it’s a lot closer than it used to be.
