You could be forgiven for thinking you’d stepped back in time to 2025. The McLaren drivers looked at ease when running at the tip of the pack during the Miami sprint race; Lando Norris in particular was a picture of serenity among the boisterousness and bombast of Formula 1’s matinee around the Hard Rock Stadium. Oscar Piastri joined his team-mate in locking out a McLaren 1-2 finish after wafting away a late assault from Charles Leclerc, presenting a result that could have been plucked from the first half of last year.
The die, however, was certainly not cast. Parc ferme creaked open for the less-fortuitous runners and riders to tinker with their set-ups, as is now customary after the sprint events. Mercedes, for example, had been well off the mark in the sprint; while Kimi Antonelli nestled on the front row after Friday’s sprint qualifying, another poor start had put him behind the McLarens and Leclerc’s Ferrari, leaving him in the clutches of an off-colour George Russell.
Yet, the Silver Arrows uncovered a vein of extra performance in qualifying. It took a bit of iteration from its engineers and some improvisation from Antonelli to get there, but his prompt throwing of the gauntlet at the start of Q3 demonstrated the Italian’s class: he posted a 1m27.798s, and refused to elaborate any further…
…well, not so much refused, as he locked up in the first sector of his second attempt at a lap and bailed. Nobody could beat it anyway; Max Verstappen got closest, but even the Red Bull driver’s heroics couldn’t quite find the extra two-tenths needed to overhaul the in-form Antonelli.
The change in fortunes was significant: the best two teams in the sprint race were not really in the pole battle and, while it was no surprise that a Mercedes had been able to make it to the front of the grid, few expected Verstappen to be a genuine contender. What were the factors in their respective turnarounds?
It’s probably worth delving into the sprint race first, a brisk 19-lap affair that was characterised by rear-tyre overheating. Miami is a rear-limited circuit; the surface is low grip, and the traction zones tend to put more lateral load through the rear tyres as the drivers slide on-throttle. This can be exacerbated at temperatures over 50C; given that the track temperatures were between 52-53C across Saturday, it makes it very difficult to keep the tyres ‘in the window’ – especially when following another car.
Norris had the run of the Miami Gardens district in the sprint – but then McLaren’s rivals found more pace
Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images
For Norris, it was generally straightforward; with clean air, he had the best chance of keeping the medium-compound Pirellis in check. Piastri suffered a little bit more, culminating in Leclerc’s application of pressure towards the final stages of the sprint. That the Ferrari driver managed to cling onto the Australian and stay within a second for a prolonged period of time was impressive, but the tyres had begun to fade by the end. Leclerc wanted to keep exerting pressure on the McLaren, but the Ferrari just didn’t have the wherewithal to make that a reality.
Credit is due for McLaren, as its wealth of updates appear to have delivered significant progress. A revised floor and rear wing were matched with reconfigured bodywork, to the point where McLaren suggested it could be considered a ‘new car’ for this weekend; both drivers appeared to have renewed confidence with the package underneath them.
“The power unit’s been good all season, so I think we’re getting most out of that now, and we’re doing the best job we have done from that side, which is always easy lap time,” Norris explained.
“I don’t feel like I’m a passenger anymore” Max Verstappen on the Red Bull F1 car
“The car is just clearly working significantly better. I think more consistent, more predictable in certain circumstances, which is a good thing in any speed or corner. So, you’re just able to kind of predict things better and then change things better from lap to lap. Before, it was a bit more kind of yin and yang with how the car might handle.
“Now we can consistently drive at a closer limit to perfection. It’s more grip; the car has just got more downforce and is working better, and primarily the rear… We’ve been struggling a lot with the rear the whole season, so I think that’s taken a good step forward. And since the first lap in FP1, I just felt like I could hit the throttle pedal a bit more aggressively, and that’s always a good feeling.”
In recent seasons, McLaren has enjoyed a solid hit-rate with its approach to development; it rarely brings a part to a race weekend that doesn’t work as expected. This underpinned the team’s ascent from the back to the front in 2023, and turned a reasonable start in 2024 to a championship-winning season; the 2026 car’s improvement rather suggests that a similar development curve is possible.
Verstappen felt rare comfort in his RB22, which greased his path to the front row
Photo by: Andy Hone/ LAT Images via Getty Images
Qualifying proper was a bit more fraught, however; Norris and Piastri suffered with a few deployment hiccups throughout Q1 and Q2, but battled into a hotly contested final stage. But neither really factored in the run for pole; the team hadn’t made the same level of progression in the three hours between the sprint and the qualifying session. “I think we still did a good job,” was Norris’ view. “I think others just did a really bad job yesterday and just did the job they should do today honestly, so not too many complaints.”
Here, Red Bull earned the plaudits. Like McLaren, Red Bull had thrown a lot at its RB22; in the opening three rounds, the car had been short on aerodynamic load. Verstappen found it particularly uncomfortable to drive, to the point where he looked miserable after the Suzuka weekend. Now? Like the rear wing on his revised chariot, the form has flipped; while the car has undoubtedly improved, Verstappen stated that he spent some time with his engineers to reconfigure the car towards his style and sensibilities.
It’s not been plain sailing, however, as the car continues to “jump” at low-speed. Yet, the most salient fact is this: Verstappen was 1.2s away from Antonelli in Suzuka’s Q2 session; he was less than 0.2s behind in Miami. “I don’t feel like I’m a passenger anymore,” was the four-time champion’s verdict.
Ferrari had brought updates too, but the evidence so far doesn’t quite suggest that they’ve been able to uncover the same leap in performance compared to McLaren and Red Bull. It keeps the Prancing Horse in the mix, which certainly meets its pre-weekend expectations; yet, it was patently obvious that Ferrari did not expect such gains from the teams ‘behind’ it. Mercedes, meanwhile, only had a couple of small additions to the tailpipe and the front brake drum aero; its bigger additions should arrive in Montreal.
Although upgrades brought the Big Four closer together, the wind was a factor. Gusts of 25kph at the end of the back ‘straight’ and into the slow-speed scrabble before the underpass made the middle sector difficult, and it was also difficult to improve in the first sector too; a bump ahead of Turn 1 made locking up incredibly easy, especially without the right brake balance and differential tweaks on the steering wheel.
A driver could try one set-up concoction with their in-car tools and find it works, only to require a difference balance on the follow-up with the shift in wind conditions. It’s easy to forget that, even without ground-effect floor aerodynamics, these cars are still sensitive.
Purple patch: Antonelli secured a third pole in a row
Photo by: Andy Hone/ LAT Images via Getty Images
Antonelli nonetheless rose to that challenge with aplomb. His 0.4s gap to Russell was also rather hefty in F1 terms, although Russell did lose a chunk of time on his final tour in the final corner; the Briton was on course to half that gap, but braked too late for Turn 17 and compromised his run to the finish line. “I just want to get through this weekend, really,” Russell mused, noting that Antonelli was “more competitive” in lower grip conditions.
Of course, there’s an elephant in the room – one that could reduce the level of grip even further. Scattered thunderstorms and rain is forecast in Miami tomorrow, with rain expected in the morning and the strike of Thor’s hammer later in the afternoon.
Assuming that’s the case, then all of the above is probably moot. It’s up to the drivers, especially when it comes to feeling out the new-for-2026 powertrains in wet conditions. Verstappen is one of a few who have tasted 2026’s machines in the rain, suggesting that “it’s quite a handful” with the level of torque that these new cars produce. The power levels will be reduced to keep that in check – but either way, it’ll probably be chaos if the rain washes over the Floridian peninsula.
Will that cruise-ship stand resemble a proper boat tomorrow?
Photo by: Guido De Bortoli / LAT Images via Getty Images
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