The top tipster reckons Native Instinct could be very well handicapped at Hamilton (15:53).
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Value Racing Tips
14:55 Newmarket – Dramatic Star
15:35 Newmarket – Domina Iglis (each-way)
15:53 Hamilton – Native Instinct
16:55 Salisbury – Kotari
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
My selection may not be the highest price I have ever put forward in this column, but I believe that this race is not the best of its kind for a class two £100,000 event, even though there are four entries rated in three figures.
Most of that quartet are held by the handicapper and require a drop in the weights to win again; the exception, possibly, is top weight Subsequent, but he may need a tad more give in the ground to win off 106 before making his way into group company. The weather forecast is for some rain, and if Newmarket gets more than the top end of 5mm, then he could well be worth a saver as the long home straight looks sure to suit him, as it did on the July course last summer.
But in receipt of 14lbs from the Andrew Balding-trained runner, I thought that DRAMATIC STAR was a pretty solid play with more to come. Unraced as a juvenile, there were mixed messages from his form as a three-year-old apart from his tailed off effort at Haydock Park, where he nearly slipped up and was allowed to come home in his own time. To win off a slack pace at Newcastle was a cracking run and raised his mark from 85 to 89, and it took a further shot up the ratings when he was touched off by The Reverend in the Old Borough Cup back at the Merseyside track, a race he really should have won.
His second to that good yardstick, Haku, was his best run since over 12 furlongs at Southwell, but this was always going to be his trip, and he had a lovely sighter for this when a never-nearer seventh of 12, never put in the race, when behind in the All-Weather Easter Plate Marathon at Newcastle. Dropped back down to 92 for this, I think he could still be a 100+ horse in time this season and set to come here in a tight fit. The son of Sea The Stars looks sure to be involved if we get at least a solid end-to-end gallop here.
So let’s get this straight on the outset: I actually think Precise will lord it over her rivals in this year’s 1,000 Guineas, as I think she is different gravy. I backed her at 8/1 before she hosed up in the Fillies Mile last season, and reports from Ballydoyle have not altered my view since. However, in a field of 19 runners with seven of the fillies making their seasonal debuts, there is always the conundrum about your chosen selection getting a run or being drawn on the wrong side of the course; the latter regularly rears its ugly head at Newmarket.
Anything around the 5/2 mark about Aidan’s filly to add to his already impressive 1,000 Guineas haul, I still think is fair value, but at a gigantic price, I think that the Amo Racing entry could well hit the four places in Paddy’s book. I thought the trials for this mile event were very much of a muchness, but then watched them back again and again, and the more I saw of the Fred Darling Stakes, the more interested I became in the Kevin Philippart De Foy entry, DOMINA IGLIS. I was at Southwell when she made a winning juvenile debut. The runner-up has since won a novice nicely, while the fourth has won two races since. The ease with which she travelled through that race was hugely impressive, and when David Egan let out a reef, she fairly marauded clear.
At Newbury, she was settled in the midfield with the intention of getting her to relax, run through the race, and get a further education, with Egan not doing a lot on her, knowing that bigger days lay ahead. However, she lengthened nicely off no more than a solid pace and was going on very nicely at the finish to be beaten by a closing two lengths. Everything about her relaxed style of racing and breeding tells me that there should be a bucket load more to come over this 1m trip. If she gets lucky in the run and is drawn on the correct side, she can massively outrun her odds.
I am not going to dwell as long on this race as I have on the first two selections; suffice it to say Ed Bethell’s charge, NATIVE INSTINCT, should be well up to defying top weight and a mark of 74 here. A good record fresh is a plus for this four-year-old, who gets to race off a career low mark of 74 following a poor run on soft ground last back end and given an awful ride at Catterick the time before, although I suppose you can also input the fact that the sharp North Yorkshire track may not have been to his liking.
On that latter score, Hamilton should be perfect for him. If he steps up on that fast-closing fifth to Mudamer over this extra furlong, he looks assured to be involved at the finish in a race with little strength in depth. The likes of course and distance winner Arkenstar and the well-weighted Quiet Resolve should both run their races, but I truly believe our tip could be chucked in at the weights here and could be rated in the mid to high 80s in the second half of the season.
A mile and three-quarters around Salisbury is a pretty stiff test of stamina when they go a good, even gallop, and many of the nine runners in this Class 6 event are either out of form or notorious characters that you can’t rely on, so this book-end event is certainly up for grabs.
Take The Boat is at least in form, but when he was punted last time out at Kempton Park, he looked both reluctant and short of pace. Of course, the step back in trip on this stiffer track should help him, and in such a moderate contest, he should be involved as long as young Harry Vigors can get a tune out of him; the teenager nearly coaxed him to victory two outings back at Chelmsford City.
Of course, racing in this basement grade says plenty about a horse, and despite being rated as high as 87 less than two years ago and 77 in the middle of last summer, the selection has been firmly on the downgrade and indeed has not won a gold medal for 22 months. However, there comes a time for most horses when they hit a mark and play against moderate enough rivals that it all falls into place here, and today could be the day for the top weight, KOTARI.
Fit from jumping, his course figures read 15, and in the second of those two contests, he was compromised by running free early on off a stodgy pace through the first half mile. There is enough pace at the top end of this contest to believe that won’t happen again, and a career low mark of 65 with Jason Watson up top all adds up to a value scenario for me.
Paul Jacobs’ Sunday Value Racing Tips
14:55 Newmarket – Dramatic Star
15:35 Newmarket – Domina Iglis (each-way)
15:53 Hamilton – Native Instinct
16:55 Salisbury – Kotari
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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