EDITOR’S NOTE: Follow CNN’s live coverage of the California gubernatorial primary debate here.
The top seven contenders in a crowded and highly competitive race to become California’s next governor will face off in a CNN debate Tuesday at 6 p.m. PT (9 p.m. ET).
The debate, moderated by CNN anchors Kaitlan Collins and Elex Michaelson, comes at a pivotal time, with the first mail ballots currently being delivered to voters in the June 2 primary.
Here are a few things to watch when the candidates take the stage:
1. Are Xavier Becerra and his progressive bona fides the target?
While the race hasn’t had a clear Democratic front-runner, there is an increasing sense that mantle is being taken up by former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.
Becerra seems to have gained the most since now-former Rep. Eric Swalwell left the race last month amid sexual assault allegations that he has denied. Becerra’s candidacy has drawn comparisons to Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign, in that he might just emerge as the perceived safe choice.
And that makes him likely to be a focal point on Tuesday.
The likeliest hit on Becerra is that he’s not progressive enough on issues like immigration and corporate influence and that his tenure as Biden’s HHS secretary wasn’t a success.
Because the race is so jumbled, it’s not totally clear that Becerra has overtaken progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, who was initially viewed as the post-Swalwell front-runner. And Steyer could seemingly be a focal point as well.
Former Rep. Katie Porter, for instance, seems to be competing with Steyer for the far-left lane. At last week’s debate she targeted him for past investments in fossil fuel companies, saying his campaign was effectively funded by that money, given he has self-funded more than $130 million. (Steyer, who has focused extensively on climate change as a candidate, has countered that fossil fuel interests oppose him.)
The first- and second-place finishers in the primary will advance to November’s general election, regardless of party. Strategy matters a lot in top-two primaries, and figuring out the right one — and executing it — isn’t easy.
Can deep-blue California end up with two GOP candidates for governor?
The so-called “anti-Trump Republic of California” is looking at a possible Democratic nightmare. How? The top two vote-getters in the June primary advance to the November ballot, regardless of party, and the Democratic field has no clear candidate. CNN’s Kyung Lah reports.
Can deep-blue California end up with two GOP candidates for governor?
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Democrats’ nightmare scenario is that the top two finishers on June 2 are both Republicans who then face off for the Governor’s Mansion. That’s what can happen — and has happened — when a Democratic field is crowded and there are only two big-name Republicans.
Otherwise, it’s virtually assured the next governor will be a Democrat.
A Republican-vs.-Republican race is less likely now that the Democratic field has shrunk and also seemingly because President Donald Trump decided to endorse former Fox News host Steve Hilton over Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. But it can’t be ruled out.
A CBS News-YouGov poll published last week put Hilton among those bunched at the top of the field at 16% and Bianco at 10%.
So do the Democrats try to do something to make sure it doesn’t happen? Do they try to elevate (or leave alone) one of the Republicans in the name of trying to make sure only one of them, at most, can get through?
Becerra last week notably sought to tie Hilton to Trump, calling the president “Steve Hilton’s daddy” and asking whether he opposed Trump’s tax cuts.
At the same time, if one Republican goes through, that means there’s one less spot for a Democrat.
Polls generally suggest Porter is in the middle of the pack, with moderate San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa pulling up the rear.
That can be a pretty decent spot, especially if everyone is going to gang up on the front-runners and you can shoot the gap.
Porter was once seen as a rising progressive star. But her campaign hasn’t really panned out, as perhaps best exemplified by a testy interview with a CBS News correspondent in October and video that emerged of her lashing out at a staffer.
Porter seemed to try to stay above the fray in the last debate, and maybe she’ll stick with that. But time is running out for her to be a factor.
4. Who stands out on the cost of living?
No issue matters more in American politics right now than the cost of living, and it matters more each day the Iran war drags on and gas prices rise or at least stay high.
California has long been one of the most expensive states to live in. Gas costs an average of $6.11 per gallon in California, the highest of any state and significantly higher than the $4.46 national average as of Monday, according to AAA.
But apart from some disagreement about whether to suspend the state gas tax (Mahan and the Republicans support it, the others don’t), the candidates haven’t been able to differentiate themselves very much.
Tuesday’s debate would seem to be a vital place to try to own that mantle. Expect plenty of focus on the subject.
Whatever the benefits of the top-two primary system, focused and comprehensible debates are not one of them.
A ton of people of very different political persuasions end up on the same stage, often talking past one another and struggling to get noticed.
That’s especially the case in a race where there’s been no consistent front-runner. Most polls show the leader around 20%. (Nobody was even above 16% in the CBS poll.)
And the prevailing view of last week’s debate is that it was a mess that probably didn’t move the needle much. Porter at one point remarked that the candidates’ bickering was “worse than my teenagers at dinner.”
But Tuesday is the biggest debate yet, given the voting is now starting. And that means we’re liable to start seeing some more desperation and an impetus for many candidates to mix it up.
