For the third time in the last decade, the New York Rangers are in the draft lottery.
In 2019, the Rangers ended up with the second overall selection and choose Kaapo Kakko. The following season was all out of sorts due to COVID-19, but when the league finally got back on schedule, the Rangers ended up winning the draft lottery, and with the first overall pick selected Alexis Lafrenière.
Six years later, after finishing last in the Eastern Conference and fourth worst in the entire league, the Rangers have the third-best odds to win the draft lottery, with an 11.5 percent chance at the first overall pick.
Taking the Rangers’ draft history out of the equation, the draft lottery is the most exciting moment of the off-season for teams that don’t make the playoffs—specifically, for the team’s that finished towards the bottom of the standings. All it takes is some good luck and the entire trajectory of the franchise can be altered, and this year is no exception.
This primer piece serves a number of purposes. For starters, some thoughts I’m going to share may be obsolete by the time many of you are even reading it. Heading into the draft lottery, the Rangers are guaranteed a top five selection in this year’s draft class. As mentioned, they have an 11.5 percent chance of drafting first overall. Additionally, they have an 11.2 percent chance of drafting second, 7.8 percent of drafting third, 39.7 percent chance of fourth overall, and 29.8 percent of fifth overall.
Where the Rangers select will drastically impact their plan of attack as they navigate the off-season, which is another large part of why I’m writing this piece. In the event that they manage to land the first overall pick, the choice is obvious: Gavin McKenna will undoubtedly be a New York Ranger. That’s best case scenario, 110 percent.
In the event they draft second overall, the answer is still pretty obvious there, too, as Ivar Stenberg should be the guy they choose. The Rangers aren’t in dire need of another winger, but the talent level is too elite for them to pass up on.
If the Rangers are going to be picking third, the answer becomes much more complicated.
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About a week ago, I did my first edition of my yearly mock draft, purely based on the players alone. While I could have made assumptions about the teams that would be drafting in certain spots when I made that initial list, I did not take it into consideration at all. I just numbered the paper 1-32 and ranked the order in which I would personally draft these players in round one of this year’s class.
On that list, I have the following players in the top five spots:
- Gavin McKenna
- Ivar Stenberg
- Keaton Verhoeff
- Carson Carels
- Caleb Malhotra
I’m fairly confident four of those five names will end up going in the top five, but there are a number of things I am still going back and forth on. For example, I’m not fully convinced which right-handed defenseman is the better prospect: Keaton Verhoeff or Chase Reid. Many folks feel Reid is, but to tell you the truth, neither have blown me away as much as Carson Carels has, and even Alberts Smits, to an extent. There’s also much more talent spread throughout this draft class that can really shake things up between now and draft day, but as mentioned, those are my current (subject to change) top five prospects.
Now back to that third overall spot. If the Rangers pick third, they have more options and a difficult decision to make.
As Joe and Eric have mentioned on the podcast, there is a scenario in which the Rangers entertain trading down in the draft to secure more assets. In the right context, that is a choice I could very well get behind, but it all depends on what they’d get in return. For example, St. Louis has two picks in the first round that are currently projected to be 11th and 15th. If things play out that way (or more ideally, 8th and 15th), I’d gladly entertain a trade like that.
If the Rangers keep the third overall pick, many would suggest it’s going to be either Chase Reid or Keaton Verhoeff unless they reach for a center in Caleb Malhtora, Tynan Lawrence, or even Viggo Bjorck—though we know he’s probably not a Chris Drury-type of pick. They could also decide to go with the position they arguably need more in a left handed defenseman and pick Carson Carels or Alberts Smits.
And this is the part of the discussion I wanted to get out there before we know for certain where the Rangers will be picking.
Many of our wonderful members here have been asking a number of questions about draft strategy, who the Rangers could or should take, as well as asking us on our thoughts about some of these prospects. We have plenty of time between now and the draft to answer those questions. And, as such, we have plans for plenty of draft related content.
In the event the Rangers pick somewhere between third and fifth overall, Roberto and I will likely roll out a series where we make the case for the Rangers to draft each of the top ten prospects in this draft class. Additionally, the Draft Radar series will pick up across the next two months and we’ll do our normal mock drafts and supporting pieces leading up to the big day.
But if we’re being optimistic, there is a chance the Rangers end up with a pick that won’t require a ton of conversation about who to choose. Because of that, I wanted to quickly provide my personal top five choices for who the Rangers draft outside the top two.
With the third overall pick, these are (in order) the top five prospects I would like to see the Rangers draft:
- Caleb Malhotra
- Carson Carels
- Viggo Bjorck
- Alberts Smits
- Chase Reid or Keaton Verhoeff
Here’s the thing: If the Rangers do pick third and can’t pull off a beneficial trade involving it, they should not be afraid to reach for a player of interest (within reason).
Let’s flash back to last year’s draft. In hindsight, it’d be insane to suggest Matthew Schaefer wasn’t the clear-cut first overall pick. But the reality of it was that there was some uncertainty and cases to be made for other prospects. James Hagens was a guy that was once expected to go first overall. Michael Misa was a guy many felt was NHL-ready and could be a difference maker. And of course there was Anton Frondell and Caleb Desnoyers who were in the mix among others.
The year prior, everyone was certain it was going to be a weak draft class beyond Macklin Celebrini. Ivan Demidov and Cayden Lindstrom were some of the more coveted forwards, and there were plenty of defensemen in Artyom Levshunov, Carter Yakemchuk, Anton Silayev, Zeev Buium, and Zayne Parekh that were in top-five consideration. Who ended up going third overall that year? Beckett Sennecke, who is currently on an absolute tear with the Anaheim Ducks.
It’s obvious that this draft class has a clear two headed monster in McKenna and Stenberg, but that shouldn’t distract from the abundance of talent beyond the top two. It may not be an immediate transition, but I could very well see a large percentage of the top 40 prospects in this draft class playing in the NHL two, three years tops from now.
Going back to those choices for the third overall pick, the Rangers desperately need help down the middle and on defense. In general, you’re always better off drafting a center. When push comes to shove, they can always move to the wing as needed whereas moving a wing to center ice is not always a viable option. While there may be limitations to Malhotra’s game (and history-related PTSD), he has all the makings to be an important top-six center. Many similar things could be said about Bjorck who I firmly believe is much better than he is getting credit for.
Defense would be the second largest priority, and for a team who finished the season relying on Matthew Robertson and an inexperienced Drew Fortescue as mainstays on their blueline, they could certainly benefit from drafting a top-four capable defenseman.
As currently constructed, the Rangers have Braden Schneider and Will Borgen. That could change, but as it currently stands, we have no reason not to believe these are players the front office is relatively committed to. That being said, it makes the most sense to draft a top left-handed defenseman in Carson Carels or Alberts Smits. I truly see many Schaefer-like qualities in Carels, and Smits could be the most NHL-ready given his experience playing in a league full of grown men, not to mention his performance with Team Latvia in the Olympics.
There is of course a world in which the Rangers trade Schneider or find a way out of the Will Borgen business which would create more logic behind drafting a Chase Reid or Keaton Verhoeff. But until we see otherwise, a right shot defenseman is a less pressing need than a center or left handed D-man.
Enjoy the lottery!
