Severe Weather, Including Hail, Winds, A Few Tornadoes, Possible Again In South, Along With Drought Relief

Where Strong Tornadoes Could Develop

Severe thunderstorms are expected across the South, with places like Birmingham, Jackson and even Atlanta at risk of isolated tornadoes and spotty flooding. Wednesday’s threat has increased to a level 3 of 5.

Storms today could hit some of the same areas that got hit at the end of April, continuing the trend of the central U.S. seeing active severe weather since March.

(RECAP: End Of April Severe Weather Outbreak)

Happening Now

The strongest storms are expected to fire up from Texas to Georgia as we go through the day. Here’s where the showers and storms are right now.

The Forecast

Wednesday

We expect clusters of severe thunderstorms over parts of the South from the Tennessee Valley to the lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Texas from the afternoon into the evening hours. That includes cities such as Birmingham, Jackson and Shreveport. The threat of severe storms has increased for Wednesday, now a level 3 of 5.

Damaging wind gusts and hail, possibly larger than golf balls, are possible in these storms. Some tornadoes are also possible, especially if discrete supercell thunderstorms are able to form in the lower Mississippi Valley (northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas into Mississippi). There is even a chance of EF2 or greater tornadoes. Flooding is also possible in parts of Georgia and Alabama.

Again, this severe threat is expected to last well into the evening in the Deep South.

Heavy Rainfall, Too

These storms will also wring out some locally heavy rainfall over parts of the South, much of which is experiencing some sort of drought. Flood watches are issued for northern Georgia and central Alabama and will likely be expanded in the coming hours.

Widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall is expected, a good amount for soils to be able to handle the absorption process. We need more days like this to continue to chip away at the longstanding drought.

However, we can’t rule out local flash flooding in a few spots, where heavy rain falls too quickly, as we saw last week in places like Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

The heaviest rainfall is expected across southern Alabama and southern Mississippi, where rainfall over 4 inches is not out of the question.

The Setup

There are a couple of factors that are all coming together for this severe weather. We have a subtropical jet that is traveling across the southern U.S. This jet will help enhance moisture across the South.

There will also be a southward plunge of the northern jet stream, known as a trough, coming over the Rockies. The conditions will be favorable for a low-pressure system to form between these upper winds.

That trough will bring in unseasonably cool air while the subtropical jet will enhance the warm, moist air over the South. The clash of these air masses is a classic setup for May, the busiest month for tornadoes on average.

(MORE: What May Brings In Terms Of Weather)

Rob Shackelford is a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com. He received his undergraduate and master’s degrees from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.