Updated:
May 6, 2026 , 01:06 PM ET
• 4 min read
The Yankees are surging and will look to push Nathan Eovaldi out of his comfort zone, while Will Warren aims to seal the deal on the mound and keep the Bronx Bombers rolling.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. New York Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren (29) throws a pitch.
No team is hotter in baseball than the New York Yankees and they’ll look to clinch their sixth consecutive series win when they face the New York Rangers this evening.
Last night was a fade of the Yankees with our moneyline bet and we paid a price, seeing them complete a mid-inning comeback with relative ease. I’m not making that same mistake this evening.
Read all about it in my Rangers vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, May 6.
Who will win Rangers vs Yankees today: Yankees -1.5 (-102)
We’ve entered this unique place with the New York Yankees where there is some looming regression coming based on their stat profiles but they aren’t facing the competition to deliver that.
This is a very good team, potentially World Series good, but they’ve overachieved to this point at least slightly because of that.
Take Will Warren for instance. His biggest issue is being reliant on strikeouts inside the zone with 91st percentile K rate but bottom 24 percentile chase rate making him vulnerable to teams that don’t miss pitches in the zone. That’s not the Texas Rangers.
On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi’s split-finger grades at the 100th percentile but the Yankees chase at just 26% and a majority of those pitches fall out of the zone. They are not going to expand down in the zone to chase it.
That forces him to his fastball, which ranks in the 2nd percentile by run value and the Yankees smash. I’d play this to -130.
COVERS INTEL: Will Warren’s whiff rate ranks in the 91st percentile despite a 24th percentile chase rate
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Rangers vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+100)
I think there’s a good chance that Warren could really suppress the runs from the Rangers in this matchup and would consider some alternative team total Unders because of that. Either way though, he’s the anchor to this play.
His 91st percentile Whiff rate paired with a 92nd percentile fastball run value gives him multiple ways to miss bats against a Rangers lineup that has a top five swing-and-miss profile.
I don’t expect Eovaldi to be exactly good but he should be competitive enough against the bottom of the Yankees lineup that chases more than the top to keep this Under.
Chris Hatfield’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 13-11, +2.62 units
- Over/Under bets: 16-10, +6.72 units
Rangers vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Texas +173 | New York -191
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-107) | New York -1.5 (-103)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (+101)
Rangers vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+15.20 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Yankees.
How to watch Rangers vs Yankees and game info
Location
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Date
Wednesday, May 6, 2026
First pitch
7:05 p.m. ET
TV
RSN, Amazon Prime Video
Rangers starting pitcher
Nathan Eovaldi
(3-4, 4.76 ERA)
Yankees starting pitcher
Will Warren
(4-0, 2.39 ERA)
Rangers vs Yankees latest injuries
Rangers vs Yankees weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Chris has always had a passion for three things: solving problems, sports, and writing. It’s no wonder then that he found himself attracted to the sports betting industry. You can find Chris betting every day. Whether it’s shot prop markets in Champions League Soccer qualifiers or NBA Summer League, he has no offseason. As an EV+ bettor, he especially values the insight gained through a data-driven approach.
His work has been featured on various websites such as SBNation, Rivals, Bleacher Report, and 247Sports. He has appeared on radio outlets such as ESPN 680 and The Sharp 600 podcast. You can listen to his own podcast, “What High School Did You Go To?” on Apple Podcast and Soundcloud.
Chris has carved out a niche as a college basketball originator with massive profitability success in that sport and stresses one piece of advice to sports bettors: exploit edges as broadly as possible and take advantage of them while they last. His preferred sportsbook is bet365 because of the range of markets you can find.
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