The Alternative Premier League Table: No 38 – Revisiting the pre-season predictions – The Athletic

Welcome to the final edition of The Alternative Premier League Table in 2025-26, where each week, The Athletic has analysed the entire division through a specific lens.

This edition will compare Opta’s projected points table from before the season and our pre-season predictions to the actual table.

Key takeaways include:

• After their summer spending spree, Liverpool were viewed as favourites to repeat, but they are well off the pace. Instead Arsenal finally finished first, something predicted by nine of our writers.
• Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur were both expected to finish in the bottom half by Opta’s model, while our writers thought they would end up eighth and sixth respectively. They have bucked that in different ways, with United securing third place and Spurs down in 17th, with relegation still possible.
• Opta’s model put Brentford in 10th, while our writers expected them to finish 16th, with 13 picking them to be relegated. They are in the fight for European qualification on the final day.
• Opta predicted Sunderland to finish last, and our writers had them 18th, with 19 writers picking them to be relegated. They currently look set for a top-half finish.

As usual, the article that follows is long but detailed, so please settle down and enjoy it all — or use the index at the bottom of the page to jump to a specific club.

Arsenal

After three consecutive second-place finishes, Arsenal have finally broken their 22-year league title drought. Mikel Arteta’s side are worthy champions, particularly for the way they have held their nerve under pressure since the 2-1 defeat at Manchester City, eking out 1-0 wins over Newcastle United, West Ham United and Burnley.

Set pieces have been the defining feature, but their defence deserves credit, with 19 clean sheets. Their new signings have each delivered at different stretches, too.

Martin Zubimendi was crucial to their early-season form. Eberechi Eze has chipped in with important goals, while Viktor Gyokeres has scored nine times in 2026.

Arsenal have built a core to continue competing at the top for years to come.

Liverpool

While Arsenal’s signings have thrived, Liverpool’s have not.

Hugo Ekitike delivered 11 league goals before his Achilles injury, but Florian Wirtz has scored just five times in 32 outings, while Alexander Isak has struck three times in just 703 league minutes.

Jeremie Frimpong, brought in to cover for Trent Alexander-Arnold, has often played at right wing, showing some spark but struggling with injuries. Milos Kerkez, after a tough start, has been more consistent of late.

All of that has played a part in Liverpool just about hanging onto the extra Champions League slot, having been backed by Opta and 13 of our writers to win the league. Arne Slot’s side have lost the identity that drove them to the 2024-25 title, with their pace of play dropping in a season where the league has gone in the opposite direction. Another busy summer awaits…

Before injury, Hugo Ekitike was one of the few new Liverpool signings to perform as expected (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola will leave City without adding a seventh Premier League title in nine years. This has been a second season of transition after they finished third in 2024-25, but the seeds have been sown for his reported successor Enzo Maresca.

City remodeled their tactical identity to adjust to the Premier League’s directness, playing faster, vertical football while keeping the long-passing sequences that have defined the Guardiola era.

In Gianluigi Donnarumma, Nico O’Reilly, Abdukodir Khusanov, Marc Guehi, and Matheus Nunes, they have a defensive core with physicality and the athleticism to defend large spaces. Cover will be required for the departing Bernardo Silva and ageing Rodri, but Rayan Cherki, Jeremy Doku, Erling Haaland and Antoine Semenyo form a frontline that offers plenty in attack and is capable without the ball.

Manchester United

The disappointment of 2024-25 was somewhat rectified by a summer spent remodelling a misfiring attack. Benjamin Sesko, Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo have all hit double figures and contributed to 31 of United’s 66 Premier League goals.

Opta’s projections placed them in the bottom half, while their highest predicted finish according to our staff was sixth (picked by five writers). When Ruben Amorim was sacked on January 5, they were sixth, 11 points off third-placed Aston Villa.

Michael Carrick’s arrival has galvanised the team, especially Bruno Fernandes, who has unleashed his creative arsenal with a chance at breaking the league’s assist record. United have won 11 of their last 16 matches and lost just twice.

Manchester United’s new signings (eventually) helped them to a season of progress (Molly Darlington/Getty Images)

The unprecedented climb needs to be built on by another summer of shrewd transfer activity.

Tottenham Hotspur

In the maiden Alternative Table, we said Spurs’ aim should be to finish somewhere between sixth, as predicted on average by our staff, and 14th, Opta’s projection for them.

Well… Thomas Frank lasted 26 league games, leaving Spurs after an eight-match winless run to kick off 2026 that left them 16th. Igor Tudor’s forgettable spell followed before Roberto De Zerbi was tasked with staving off relegation.

His side needs a point on the final day to do that, and another rebuild will surely be required in the summer if Spurs are to challenge for even a Conference League spot.

Brentford

Keith Andrews would be a deserving manager of the year winner. Taking over from Frank and without Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, Christian Norgaard and Mark Flekken, there was pessimism around Brentford maintaining their mid-table and, in some cases, even top-flight status.

Shrewd recruitment, one of their hallmarks, has proved pivotal again. Igor Thiago, a 2024 signing who missed nearly all of 2024-25 with injury, has delivered a 22-goal season. Caoimhin Kelleher has had some big moments in goal, and Dango Ouattara has won five penalties, the second-most in a single season since 2018-19 (behind six by Wilfried Zaha in 2018-19 and Anthony Gordon in 2024-25), and scored seven goals to boot. Mikkel Damsgaard, Michael Kayode, and Mathias Jensen have all delivered when called upon.

Brentford took points off Arsenal, Manchester United, Aston Villa (twice) and Liverpool, and who can rule them out causing the big sides problems again in 2026-27.

Sunderland

Two consecutive seasons of promoted teams going straight back down may have coloured our opinions on Sunderland. We compared their summer spree to 2018-19 Fulham and said relegation was a very real possibility — we could not have been more wrong.

Virtually all of Sunderland’s transfers were hits. Omar Alderete and Nordi Mukiele have been excellent at the back ahead of the impressive Robin Roefs. Granit Xhaka and Noah Sadiki have been excellent in midfield alongside Enzo Le Fee, while Habib Diarra has chipped in too. Brian Brobbey’s seven goals have been vital, as have Chemsdine Talbi’s four.

Dan Ballard, Wilson Isidor, Luke O’Nien and Trai Hume have all had their moments, too, with Regis Le Bris’ squad management an underrated contributor to their success.

Sunderland’s season has been way above expectation (Paul Ellis / AFP via Getty Images)

Leeds United

As with Sunderland, we were not high on Leeds, even though 11 of our staff had them securing safety, with two predicting a 14th-place finish, which is where they find themselves with one game remaining.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Anton Stach and Gabriel Gudmundsson have been excellent, while Felix Nmecha, Jaka Bijol and Sean Longstaff have proved reliable.

Daniel Farke’s decision to shift from a possession-based to a direct style in December prompted a crucial run of just two losses in 14 matches (four wins, eight draws). He had just six wins in his 49 Premier League matches entering the season but could make it 12 wins in 2025-26 alone on the final day against West Ham, a result which would relegate the Londoners.

Bournemouth

Only one out of our 30 staff predicted a top-seven finish for Bournemouth, who have absolutely soared in 2026.

They have picked up 33 points from 18 matches this calendar year, only bettered by both Manchester sides (38 points each from 19 games) and champions Arsenal (37 from 18), while losing just once.

Under Andoni Iraola, Bournemouth’s form has often oscillated between streaks of positive and negative results. In 2025-26, they won five and drew three games after losing to Liverpool on Matchday 1, then went winless between November 2 and January 3 before entering their current hot streak that has seen more composed in-possession play and improved game management.

A sixth-place finish despite losing Milos Kerkez, Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi in the summer and Antoine Semenyo in January deserves immense credit. Eli Junior Kroupi, with 13 league goals, summer arrival Adrien Truffert and January signing Rayan have been excellent, while the stocks of Alex Scott and James Hill have risen further.

Brighton & Hove Albion

Brighton will enter their season-ender against Manchester United possibly needing a win to secure Europe, having been predicted to finish eighth by Opta and ninth by our writers. Only two of our staff predicted a top-seven finish for Fabian Hurzeler’s side.

Winning just seven of their first 26 matches set Brighton back quite a bit, even leading to speculation about Hurzeler’s future at the club. But they have won seven of their last 11 games, with their 22 points ranking fourth behind Manchester City (25), Arsenal (24) and Manchester United (23) in that stretch.

Danny Welbeck has scored a career-high 13 goals, but Brighton have made up the goals lost with Joao Pedro’s departure to Chelsea in the aggregate. Their 19 different goal scorers lead the league, with seven players managing three or more goals behind Welbeck.

Brighton have shared the goals around this season (Warren Little/Getty Images)

Chelsea

All but one of our 30 staff had Chelsea in the top four (with one even predicting them to win the title), in line with Opta’s projections. The one writer who was less optimistic still had them seventh.

Chelsea currently sit eighth and cannot finish higher than sixth. Their season began with seven wins in 11 matches under Enzo Maresca. He left by mutual consent in January, and their season has since spiralled with six defeats in a row between March 14 and May 4 costing Liam Rosenior his job.

A lack of fight on the pitch and fan protests against pretty much everything off it have characterised a turbulent 2025-26. Xabi Alonso has been tasked with reversing that in 2026-27 and beyond.

Newcastle United

Like Chelsea, expectations were high for Newcastle after a 2024-25 campaign that brought Champions League football. Opta’s projections and our staff had them finishing fifth, with their lowest predicted finish from our writers being eighth.

A slow start to the season immediately put that at risk, but a muddled middle of the table and a run of six wins and three draws in 11 matches brought some optimism. Errors and an inability to hold onto or build on leads have inevitably led to Newcastle dropping a league-high 27 points after going ahead in games, preventing a sustained rise up the table.

The expenditure on Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa has brought nine goals in a combined 50 appearances, while Anthony Elanga is goalless in the Premier League across 1,289 minutes. Will Osula’s emergence to score seven times in just 745 league minutes has been a major positive in attack, while Malick Thiaw, despite the occasional error, has been a solid addition.

The possible funds raised from selling Anthony Gordon and Sandro Tonali this summer might prove crucial for Newcastle to bolster their squad depth.

They are 11th but can still get to eighth (which may be enough for a Conference League spot) if they beat Fulham and several results go their way on the final day.

Crystal Palace

The added weight of Conference League football and a subdued summer that saw Eberechi Eze leave led us to suggest Palace would not finish seventh, which was Opta’s projection for them. Our staff felt they would end up in 11th.

The lack of depth snowballed into Oliver Glasner’s frustrations with the hierarchy amid a nine-game winless streak from December 14 to February 1. The January arrivals of Jorgen Strand Larsen and Brennan Johnson were supplanted by Marc Guehi’s departure to Manchester City and Glasner’s decision to leave at the end of the season. They are 15th and cannot rise more than a spot on the final day.

But this season will be a resounding success if Palace beat Rayo Vallecano in the Conference League final on May 27 to cap off an excellent maiden continental run and secure another year of European football, this time in the Europa League.

Everton

Everton were firmly in the fight for European qualification before a six-match winless streak since April 11, which has left them 12th heading into their final game at Tottenham.

That is still one spot higher than where Opta’s projections had them and two higher than our staff’s projections. Two runs of excellent form — four wins and a draw in six matches in November-December and four draws and three wins in eight games in December-February — have proven crucial.

Bolstering their front six with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jack Grealish — before his injury — and Thierno Barry has paid dividends, adding unpredictability and goals. James Garner has been excellent, while Jordan Pickford, James Tarkowski and Idrissa Gueye have been reliable once again.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall’s first season at Everton has been positive (Richard Pelham/Getty Images)

Fulham

Since returning to the Premier League in 2022, Fulham have finished 10th, 13th and 11th. Our writers predicted another 13th-place finish, while Opta’s model placed them 15th. Heading into their final match against Newcastle, Fulham can finish anywhere between ninth or 14th.

This has been yet another season where Marco Silva’s side have threatened to break into the European places at times with impressive individual campaigns — with Harry Wilson taking over from the 2024-25 editions of Raul Jimenez and Antonee Robinson — before eventually fading away. They won just two of their first nine games, eight of the next 14 and four of the last 14.

Silva’s contract expires this summer, so big changes could be on the way at Craven Cottage.

West Ham United

Our writers predicted a 15th-place finish for West Ham, with only two out of 30 suggesting they’d go down. Opta’s projections had them finishing 16th.

Safety looked possible between January 17 and March 14 when they won four and drew three of nine matches. But their torrid start to the season, which saw them win just three of their first 21 matches, along with Leeds and Nottingham Forest picking up form, has rendered that run nearly inconsequential.

Spurs’ implosion had them interested, but West Ham have lost three in a row right as Roberto De Zerbi’s side won two and drew two to nearly claw themselves to safety. Their defeat against Chelsea leaves West Ham needing a final-day win and a Spurs defeat to stay in the top flight. Not impossible, but unlikely.

Nottingham Forest

A fantastic 2024-25 that ended in Europa League qualification and a busy summer window led Opta to predict an 11th-place finish for Forest. Our staff placed them 12th on average, with seven backing them to finish in the top half.

Their domestic campaign has been one of turmoil instead, with Ange Postecoglou and Sean Dyche getting and losing the job after Nuno Espirito Santo departed following a fallout with Edu. Vitor Pereira has kept them up, though, losing just three of his 11 matches in charge (four wins and four draws).

Plenty of credit for that should go to Morgan Gibbs-White — who has scored 14 goals with 2024-25 top-scorer Chris Wood sidelined for long stretches — and Elliot Anderson.

Forest will finish in the bottom six, but expect the Europa League semi-finalists to be busy in the summer yet again, particularly with Anderson attracting plenty of suitors.

Morgan Gibbs-White has battled to keep Nottingham Forest in the Premier League (Darren Staples / AFP via Getty Images)

Aston Villa

Unai Emery has turned Villa into European performers. Like Palace, they endured a quiet summer and did not bolster much of their squad, which factored into Opta’s sixth-place projection. Our staff, on average, picked them to finish seventh, with seven of 30 writers placing them in their top five.

A five-game winless streak to start the season, scoring just one goal, might have made a few nervous. But Villa won 12 of their next 13 and in a table with a muddled-up middle, it was enough to separate them from the rest and secure Champions League football for 2026-27, even if their form since has been middling.

Much of it has to do with Emery extracting even more out of large parts of the squad he acquired from Steven Gerrard in October 2022. Six of the 11 players who started the Spaniard’s debut match, a 3-1 win over Manchester United in 2022,started their 3-0 win in the Europa League final against Freiburg last night, which ended a 30-year wait for a major trophy.

Aston Villa’s Europa League win is their first major trophy for 30 years (YASIN AKGUL / AFP via Getty Images)

Burnley

Twenty-eight of our 30 writers predicted Burnley would get relegated. Opta’s projections were more optimistic, placing them ahead of Leeds and Sunderland.

A torrid fixture list to start the season did not help. But Scott Parker’s side beat Sunderland, Leeds and Wolves, drew with Forest and acquitted themselves well against Manchester United, Liverpool, Aston Villa and, for a half, Manchester City.

The issue was that all four games ended in defeat and a defining 16-match winless run with 11 defeats followed.

Wolves

Losing 2024-25 stars Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri, along with captain Nelson Semedo and Pablo Sarabia, meant Wolves were always going to be up against it. Our staff predicted a 19th-place finish, while Opta’s model had them just above the relegation zone.

The Vitor Pereira bounce that carried them to 16th last May fell flat as Wolves lost eight of their first 10 games, resulting in his departure. None of their summer signings, barring Tolu Arokodare to an extent, have delivered, with some not playing many minutes and Jhon Arias lasting only until January.

The planning for the Championship began in January with Adam Armstrong’s arrival, and the funds raised from the prospective sales of Andre and Joao Gomes, among others, will be crucial if they are to bounce straight back.