ays’ forecast leans most on regulation, not day-to-day demand swings. It expects National Grid’s regulated asset base – the pool of approved network investment that regulators allow it to recover through customer charges plus an allowed return – to rise at a 10.8% compound annual growth rate through March 2031. On that basis, Barclays models 9.6% earnings per share growth through fiscal 2031, to 123.6 pence, which it says lines up with a 12.1 price-to-earnings multiple at its £15 target.
Why should I care?
For markets: Barclays ties its £15 view to 10.8% RAB growth through March 2031.
Regulated utilities tend to trade on how visible their future cash flows are, and that visibility mostly comes from the rulebook: invest in approved grid projects, then earn a set return on the larger regulated asset base. That’s why Barclays’ numbers matter less as a “Europe demand” call and more as a judgment on whether National Grid can keep winning permission for big grid spending – and then deliver it on time and on budget – especially in UK electricity transmission. If that pipeline slows or execution slips, the regulated asset base would grow more slowly, and the earnings path (and valuation math behind the 12.1 multiple) would likely look less secure.
