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We continue our predictions and picks for RAF 09: Steveson vs. Romanov as we take a look at this upcoming match between UFC champions. UFC’s Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia will take on former UFC lightweight champ Frankie Edgar in a can’t-miss wrestling chess match. Check our MMA odds series for the Dvalishvili-Edgar prediction and pick.
Merab Dvalishvili makes his RAF debut following a cancelled match against Henry Cejudo. Dvalishvili is known as the UFC’s most relentless grappler thanks to his background as a world silver medalist in combat sambo. While his wrestling is proven in an MMA context, we’ll see how he fares on the RAF mat.
Frankie Edgar will also make his RAF debut. He’s a former UFC lightweight champion and 2024 Hall-of-Fame inductee, but Edgar’s roots began on the wrestling mats as a high school standout in New Jersey and a freestyle wrestling All-American at Clarion University.
RAF 09 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
RAF 09 Odds: Merab Dvalishvili-Frankie Edgar Odds
Merab Dvalishvili: -1200
Frankie Edgar: +750
Why Merab Dvalishvili Will Win
Wrestling is arguably the most taxing sport of all both physically and mentally, but at the very least it requires peak physical condition and exceptional cardio. In the sport of MMA today, there’s arguably no one with a motor and gas tank like Merab Dvalishvili, setting records in the UFC for his relentless takedowns. While it all works for him in an MMA context, the cadence of this freestyle format will be something Dvalishvili will have to get used to.
His combat sambo background will play very well into this as Dvalishvili is able to leverage position and remain sturdy on his feet. His biggest disadvantage will be not having a fence to work with and push Edgar against, something he’s grown fully accustomed to fighting in the UFC’s octagon. Dvalishvili will have to break down his game to a more confined space, which is where he can play into his solid base and ability to reverse positions if Edgar initiates a takedown.
Dvalishvili will have to be wary of the single leg attempts and ankle picks from Edgar, but he should prove to be the much stronger athlete. He may not be as fluid in his movement as Edgar will appear, but Dvalishvili will certainly be able to muscle his way out of any bad positions he may find himself in.
Why Frankie Edgar Will Win
Frankie Edgar will return to the wrestling mat at 44 years old, but he’s in some of the best shape of his life heading into this RAF debut. He grew up wrestling as a youth in New Jersey and later in Division I, so Edgar is immediately comfortable training, preparing, and competing under these types of circumstances. There’s no denying him as a great in the sport of MMA, but Edgar’s first love came on the mats where he’ll probably be the more comfortable side in this matchup.
Frankie Edgar posted a 120-55 record while freestyle wrestling at Clarion University and earned All-American honors, no small feat considering how competitive the world of D-I college wrestling is. Making the natural switch over to MMA, Edgar has also become renowned for his cardio and ability to push a high pace. While he’s nine years Dvalishvili’s senior, he’ll still have the stern advantage in experience from a pure wrestling standpoint.
Edgar will have to catch Dvalishvili but surprise early as it’s clear his opponent may play this conservatively to start. If Edgar can set a high pace early and force Dvalishvili to answer later on, he could build himself a lead in the first rounds while strategizing during the breaks once Merab begins to spam the takedown attempts.
Final Merab Dvalishvili-Frankie Edgar Prediction & Pick
This will be a very interesting matchup given the differing styles of both fighters. Merab Dvalishvili is undeniable with his cardio and ability to push a high pace, but it’ll be interesting to see how fluid he is in this wrestling contest. His training at Serra-Longo should have him prepared ahead of this matchup, but Edgar still has room to surprise him given his long history with the sport.
Frankie Edgar can stand to see success if he’s able to use Dvalishvili’s momentum against him and force him to the boundaries of the mat. If Dvalishvili begins spamming takedowns, it could lead to Edgar reversing positions and scoring points with dominant positioning.
However, I don’t see a world where Edgar is able to pin Dvalishvili and conversely, Dvalishvili can certainly secure his top pressure and pin Frankie Edgar. Let’s roll with the clear favorite, but expect a much closer match thanks to Edgar’s craftiness.
Final Merab Dvalishvili-Frankie Edgar Prediction & Pick: Merab Dvalishvili (-1200)
We continue our predictions and picks for RAF 09: Steveson vs. Romanov as we take a look at this upcoming match between UFC champions. UFC’s Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia will take on former UFC lightweight champ Frankie Edgar in a can’t-miss wrestling chess match. Check our MMA odds series for the Dvalishvili-Edgar prediction and pick.
