BIRMINGHAM, Ala. — The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One, a developing system along the Texas coast that is expected to become a tropical storm as it moves across the northwestern Gulf this week.
While the storm is not forecast to become particularly strong, forecasters warn that heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and dangerous beach conditions will create impacts far from the storm’s center, including across Central Alabama.
Flooding Rain Is The Main Concern
The National Hurricane Center says widespread rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated amounts approaching 12 inches, are possible from Texas eastward through Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday.
For Central Alabama, the National Weather Service in Birmingham is forecasting a prolonged stretch of wet weather with 4 to 7 inches of rainfall possible through the end of the week, along with locally higher amounts.
Meteorologists say Tuesday’s rain will help saturate the ground, increasing the risk for flooding when heavier tropical moisture arrives later this week.
“If the forecast holds, flooding will become the primary concern across much of Central Alabama from Thursday into Friday.”
Low-lying areas, locations with poor drainage, urban streets, and flood-prone creeks and streams will be especially vulnerable to flooding. Forecasters have indicated that a Flood Watch may eventually be needed as confidence increases in the heavy rainfall threat.
Timing For Alabama
Periods of rain are expected throughout the week, but the most significant impacts are expected to arrive as deep tropical moisture spreads into Alabama Wednesday night through Friday.
The system itself is forecast to track from the Texas coast into Louisiana before weakening inland. Even as the circulation weakens, tropical moisture extending well east of the center is expected to fuel rounds of heavy rain across Alabama.
Because the storm’s strongest impacts will occur on the eastern side of the circulation, Alabama could experience significant rainfall despite being hundreds of miles from the center.
Gulf Coast Vacationers Should Stay Alert
The developing system may also affect thousands of Alabamians heading to Gulf Coast beaches for summer vacations.
Even though the storm’s center is forecast to remain well west of Alabama’s coastline, increased wave action and dangerous rip currents are expected along portions of the Gulf Coast.
Beachgoers should closely monitor local beach flags and heed warnings from lifeguards and local officials before entering the water.
Periods of heavy rain, gusty winds, rough surf, and occasional thunderstorms are also possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast later this week, potentially disrupting beach plans.
Anyone traveling to Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola Beach, Destin, or other Gulf Coast destinations should continue checking forecasts over the next several days.
Additional Threats
In addition to heavy rain, the National Hurricane Center says a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the Gulf Coast states, including Alabama, as the system moves inland.
While widespread severe weather is not expected, tropical systems can occasionally produce short-lived tornadoes within rain bands.
What Happens Next?
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is currently located near South Texas and is moving northeast. Forecasters expect it to move offshore into the Gulf before tracking near the Texas and Louisiana coastlines through Wednesday.
The system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm before making landfall along the upper Gulf Coast and weakening inland.
Regardless of whether it earns a name, forecasters emphasize that the biggest story for Alabama will be the potential for several days of heavy rainfall and increasing flooding concerns late this week.
Residents should use the next couple of days to stay informed and monitor forecast updates as rainfall amounts and flood potential become clearer.
