The two highest ranked teams in international football face off in the 2026 FIFA World Cup final. Will Argentina become the third back-to-back champions, or can Spain win for a second time?
Spain vs Argentina: The Key Insights
- Spain lifted the 2026 FIFA World Cup in 59.5% of the 25,000 Opta supercomputer simulations, while Argentina regained the title in the other 40.5%.
- This match marks the first time the reigning Copa America champions have faced the reigning European champions in a FIFA World Cup final.
- Argentina are the sixth reigning champions to reach a FIFA World Cup final – the first two won the final (Italy in 1938 and Brazil in 1962) but the last three have all lost (Argentina in 1990, Brazil in 1998 and France in 2022).
So here we are. The biggest game in football. The 104th and final match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Spain vs Argentina. Which side will be crowned world champions?
Argentina are the defending champions and, after lifting the trophy in 2022, have the chance to become just the third team in the tournament’s history to retain it after Italy (1934 and 1938) and Brazil (1958 and 1962).
Meanwhile, Spain head into the final as reigning European champions, and are attempting to win the World Cup for the second time, following their success in 2010.
Argentina are also the reigning champions of South American football, and this match marks the first time the reigning CONMEBOL Copa America champions have faced the reigning UEFA European champions in a World Cup final.
It is also the first time ever that the two nations ranked first (Argentina) and second (Spain) in the FIFA World Rankings have met at any stage of a World Cup, never mind the final. It is truly set to be a game for the ages.
Argentina are competing in their seventh World Cup final, with only Germany playing in more (8). They are three-time winners (1978, 1986, 2022) and three-time runners-up (1930, 1990, 2014).
For Spain, it is only their second World Cup final, after winning the 2010 showpiece. They have been victorious in five of their six major tournament finals overall, also winning four of their five European Championship finals.
Argentina have won all seven of their matches at the 2026 World Cup and could be the first team since Brazil in 2002 (won 7/7) to have a 100% winning record in a single edition.
But despite winning every game, Argentina have clearly shown fallibility, and it is Spain who many – including the Opta supercomputer – consider the most likely victors.
Why? Their ability to control proceedings and blunt the attacking potential of any team. They’ve allowed their opponents an xG of just 0.31 per game at this World Cup, the lowest of any side and joint lowest on record since 1966, along with Uruguay in 1990.
It has resulted in six clean sheets, already the most by any side at a single World Cup tournament.
Their dominance is no fluke – they are currently unbeaten in their last 37 matches in all competitions since a 1-0 defeat to Colombia in March 2024. If they avoid defeat in this match, it will be the longest ever unbeaten run by a European nation in history.
But Argentina are on a run of their own. Not only have they won all seven of their matches at this tournament – they also won their seven games prior. A 15th consecutive victory here would see them break the all-time record winning run by a South American nation.
Lionel Messi versus Lamine Yamal could very well be the story of the match. If both start, it will be the first time in World Cup history there are players on opposite sides starting a final separated in age by more than 20 years.
Messi is the past, they are both the present, but Yamal is the future.
They also happen to be the two players to complete the most dribbles at this summer’s tournament. Messi’s 25 are the most on record by a player aged 30+ in a single World Cup, while Yamal’s 22 are the joint-most by a teenager, along with Kylian Mbappé in 2018.
Messi is the set to become just the second player in World Cup history to appear in three finals (2014, 2022 and 2026), along with Brazil’s Cafu (1994, 1998, 2002). He would also become the oldest outfield player to appear in a final (39 years, 25 days).
Yamal, meanwhile, would be the third-youngest player to appear in a World Cup final (19 years, 6 days), behind Pelé for Brazil in 1958 (17 years, 249 days) and Giuseppe Bergomi for Italy in 1982 (18 years, 201 days).
A word for Rodri, too, who will be in contention for the Golden Ball if Spain are victorious. He has completed 655 passes at this tournament, already the most on record in a single edition.
More World Cup Final Content
Spain vs Argentina Head-to-Head
This will be only the second meeting between Spain and Argentina in the FIFA World Cup, with Argentina winning 2-1 in the group stage in 1966.
Spain have won three of their four meetings with Argentina this century, losing the other 4-1 in a friendly in 2010. The most recent game between the nations was a 6-1 win for Spain in a March 2018 friendly, which remains one of only five occasions Argentina have conceded six in a game.
Spain vs Argentina Prediction
The Opta supercomputer views Spain as favourites to become world champions, winning the 2026 World Cup in 59.5% of the 25,000 pre-match simulations. Argentina retained their title in the remaining 40.5%.
In terms of the result inside 90 minutes, Spain won in 45.0% of the 25,000 pre-match simulations. The chance of the game finishing as a draw sits at 29.0%, while Argentina won the match without needing extra-time or a penalty shootout in the remaining 26.0% of sims.
Spain vs Argentina Squads
Spain: David Raya, Joan García, Unai Simón, Marc Pubill, Alejandro Grimaldo, Eric García, Pedro Porro, Aymeric Laporte, Pau Cubarsí, Marc Cucurella, Marcos Llorente, Mikel Merino, Fabián Ruiz, Gavi, Dani Olmo, Yéremy Pino, Álex Baena, Rodri, Martín Zubimendi, Pedri, Ferran Torres, Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Víctor Muñoz, Borja Iglesias.
Argentina: Juan Musso, Gerónimo Rulli, Emiliano Martínez, Nicolás Tagliafico, Gonzalo Montiel, Lisandro Martínez, Cristian Romero, Nicolás Otamendi, Facundo Medina, Nahuel Molina, Leandro Paredes, Rodrigo De Paul, Valentín Barco, Giovani Lo Celso, Exequiel Palacios, Thiago Almada, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernández, Julián Alvarez, Lionel Messi, Nico González, Giuliano Simeone, Nico Paz, José Manuel López, Lautaro Martínez.
Spain vs Argentina Predicted Lineups
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