Todd Cordell
• Betting Analyst
12+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 19, 2026 , 08:58 AM ET
• 4 min read
Chicago Cubs bats deal damage against Zebby Matthews and the Minnesota Twins.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) is congratulated by infielder Michael Busch (29) after hitting a home run in the third inning
The Chicago Cubs are sizable -160 favorites to win the rubber match this afternoon against the Minnesota Twins.
With an enticing matchup against the homer-prone Zebby Matthews, my Twins vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks are backing the home team to get it done.
Who will win Twins vs Cubs today: Cubs (-160)
Zebby Matthews posted a sub-3.40 xERA over his first three starts, allowing five runs in total.
His numbers have since taken a turn for the worse. He conceded 29 runs spanning his past eight starts and recorded a 4.70 xERA or higher in seven of them — including four straight above 5.5.
The Chicago Cubs rank eighth in wOBA and OPS facing righties the past month. They’re plenty capable of capitalizing on this matchup.
Shota Imanaga’s strong form should remain against a Minnesota Twins team sitting 28th in OPS vs. lefties since May 19.
Play to -180.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Twins vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-110)
Homers are the best way for offenses to score runs in bulk, and we could see plenty today.
Matthews ranks in the fifth percentile in barrel rate, which has made it difficult to keep the ball in the park. He has allowed homers at the second-highest clip (2.28 HR/9) among all of today’s starters over the past 30 days.
Imanaga has an easier matchup and has done a better job of limiting runs as a whole, but he’s not far behind at 2.11 HR/9 the last month.
This total is too low. Play to -125.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 59-48, +0.60 units
- Over/Under bets: 58-44-5, +6.49 units
Twins vs Cubs weather
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-70s, with 8 mph winds blowing in. Small boost to the pitchers.
Twins vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Twins +140 | Cubs -160
- Run line: Twins +1.5 (-145) | Cubs -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Twins vs Cubs trend
Minnesota has hit the game total Over in 22 of the last 35 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Cubs.
How to watch Twins vs Cubs and game info
Location
Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date
Sunday, July 19, 2026
First pitch
2:20 p.m. ET
TV
Twins.TV, MARQ
Twins starting pitcher
Zebby Matthews
(4-6, 4.57 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher
Shota Imanaga
(5-8, 4.17 ERA)
Twins vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Pages related to this topic
Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
Read More
