Updated:
Aug 1, 2026 , 03:51 PM ET
• 4 min read
A weather-driven Under drives the narrative for Saturday’s Wrigley matchup, with rain and heavy wind blowing in against two left-handed starters.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. New York Yankees starting pitcher Max Fried (54).
The New York Yankees are short road favorites against the Chicago Cubs tonight, and I’m laying the moneyline.
It’s not shaping up to be an ideal day for baseball in Chi-Town, with rain and heavy winds expected at Wrigley Field. That keeps me away from the run line, but Max Fried still gives New York the edge on the mound.
Here are my Yankees vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, August 1.
Who will win Yankees vs Cubs tonight: Yankees moneyline (-127)
I’m backing the New York Yankees, and I’d play them down to -130. The reason is simple: Max Fried.
He has allowed just a .247 xwOBA this season. That’s a strong fit against an up-and-down Chicago Cubs offense.
Veteran David Peterson hasn’t been a disaster, but he will be more solvable. He owns a 5.14 xERA, .429 xSLG allowed, and just a 18% strikeout rate.
It gets most of his success out of his 80th percentile ground-ball rate. That could keep the Yankees’ bats quiet for long stretches, but eventually the underlying metrics will catch up with him in a game of thin margins.
COVERS INTEL: Fried’s 1.6% barrel rate is not just good. It is nearly five full percentage points better than his 2025 mark.
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Yankees vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (-121)
We saw just how ineffective these offenses can be with barrel suppression yesterday in a 2-0 Yankees win. I’m backing another low-scoring affair and would play the Under to 6, particularly considering the weather in store.
Rain and wind blowing in at Wrigley are not small variables, especially with the pitchers in mind.
Fried fits the weather. His 50% ground-ball rate and almost non-existent barrel rate make it difficult for the Cubbies to create power.
Peterson’s overall profile is shakier, but he still owns a 49% ground-ball rate, and the weather helps cover some of his air-contact risk.
Chris Hatfield’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 42-36, +9.58 units
- Over/Under bets: 45-34, +12.01 units
Yankees vs Cubs weather
Wrigley’s wind and rain are game-changers, especially with Max Fried and David Peterson on the mound.
Yankees vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: New York -121 | Chicago +110
- Run line: New York -1.5 | Chicago +1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Yankees vs Cubs trend
Yankees are 5-1 in Fried’s last six starts as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Cubs.
How to watch Yankees vs Cubs and game info
Location
Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Date
Saturday, August 1, 2026
First pitch
7:15 p.m. ET
TV
FOX
Yankees starting pitcher
Max Fried
(4-3, 3.23 ERA)
Cubs starting pitcher
David Peterson
(6-7, 5.80 ERA)
Yankees vs Cubs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Chris has always had a passion for three things: solving problems, sports, and writing. It’s no wonder then that he found himself attracted to the sports betting industry. You can find Chris betting every day. Whether it’s shot prop markets in Champions League Soccer qualifiers or NBA Summer League, he has no offseason. As an EV+ bettor, he especially values the insight gained through a data-driven approach.
His work has been featured on various websites such as SBNation, Rivals, Bleacher Report, and 247Sports. He has appeared on radio outlets such as ESPN 680 and The Sharp 600 podcast. You can listen to his own podcast, “What High School Did You Go To?” on Apple Podcast and Soundcloud.
Chris has carved out a niche as a college basketball originator with massive profitability success in that sport and stresses one piece of advice to sports bettors: exploit edges as broadly as possible and take advantage of them while they last. His preferred sportsbook is bet365 because of the range of markets you can find.
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