After reading JPG’s reporting that Ricky Pearsall’s season-ending knee surgery, I took a peek over at Niners Nation to see how they were coping. The answer: Not that well, as was to be expected.
A couple fans got into sidebar about the success, or lack thereof, of 1st round picks under Lynch. I thought it may be interesting to compare that to Seattle’s over the same period of time from 2017 – 2026. The results are below:
San Francisco’s First Round Draft Picks 2017-2026 Under GM John Lynch
NOTE: This list – including hits & busts – are from the Niners Nation fans, not from me.
2017 Solomon Thomas
2017 Reuben Foster
2018 Mike McClinchey
2019 Nick Bosa
2020 Javon Kinlaw
2020 Brandon Aiyuk
2021 Trey Lance
2022 (given up for Lance)
2023 (given up for Lance)
2024 Rickey Pearsal (sic)
2025 Mykel Williams (TBD)
2026 (gave up and traded down) [N/A]
Total Picks: 11
Hits: 3
Busts: 7
TBDs: 1
Hit Rate: 30%
Seattle’s First-Round Draft Picks 2017 – 2026 Under GM John Schneider
NOTE: I took a shot at adjudicating draft hits & busts (please feel free to debate it!) I did consider how it appeared the Niners folks assigned decisions, so I tried to make mine with that as a rough template.
2017: No pick [N/A]
2018: Rashaad Penny (RB, San Diego State, No. 27 overall) *
2019: LJ Collier (DE, TCU, No. 29 overall)
2020: Jordyn Brooks (LB, Texas Tech, No. 27 overall)
2021: No pick [N/A]
2022: Charles Cross (OT, Mississippi State, No. 9 overall)
2023: Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois, No. 5 overall)
2023: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State, No. 20 overall)
2024: Byron Murphy II (DT, Texas, No. 16 overall)
2025: Grey Zabel (OG, North Dakota State, No. 18 overall)
2026: Jadarian Price (RB, Notre Dame, No. 32 overall) [TBD]
Total Picks: 9
Hits: 6
Busts: 2
TBDs: 1
Hit Rate: 75%
Result: Seattle 75%; San Francisco 30%
It’s important to note that John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan share draft accountability through a deeply collaborative, joint decision-making process where general manager Lynch formally owns the overall operation, but head coach Shanahan wields massive influence and final tactical deference. So it’s not quite accurate to hang draft successes or failures totally on Lynch when it’s Shanahan making draft selections.
What About Success in Later Rounds?
As one of the 49er’s Commenters later noted, despite the failures of early picks, San Francisco did make up for some of these ‘by getting gems like (George) Kittle, (Fred) Warner, Dre Greenlaw, DJ Jones, and of course, the man who saved Kyle’s job…’ (reference to Brock Purdy).
++ Question for you, Field Gulls! ++
Clearly, Seattle has the edge over San Francisco in the 1st round of the draft the past nine years. But as one Niners fan points out, Lynch/Shanahan have selected five excellent players in later rounds that have mitigated some of those early busts. Can Seattle match or best San Francisco with five of it’s own later round draft picks during this same time period? Who are Seattle’s Top 5 non-first round picks between 2017 – 2026 and do they meet or exceed San Francisco’s Top 5 as cited by one of their fans? Here’s that Top 5 again:
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George Kittle
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Fred Warner
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Dre Greenlaw
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DJ Jones
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Brock Purdy
*Rashad Penny – I debated on this. Because he never became a long-term starter or played a full, productive season as a premier first-round back, for me he qualifies as a draft disappointment, though his electrifying peaks prevent him from being a total bust. As some may recall, Penny averaged over 6.0 yards per rush in both 2021 and 2022, proving he did possess explosive NFL talent. He just could never quite put it all together.
