Morning Coffee: Can Flacco lead Bengals to upset win over Steelers on Thursday Night Football?
The Toronto Blue Jays desperately needed a spark in Game 3 of the ALCS.
Trailing the Seattle Mariners 2-0 in the series after back-to-back losses at home, the Blue Jays then trailed 2-0 in the third inning of a crucial Game 3 on the road.
Toronto’s bats had been held to just four runs in the first 20 innings of the ALCS.
Nobody could have expected what happened next.
With their backs against the wall, the Blue Jays offence exploded for five runs in the top of the third inning.
Andrés Gimenez provided the initial spark with a two-run home run to tie the game.
Toronto went on to score five runs in the third – the second time this postseason they’ve scored five or more runs in one inning.
They didn’t stop there.
George Springer hit a solo home run in the fourth inning.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homered in the fifth.
Alejandro Kirk and Addison Barger also went deep as the Blue Jays became the first team in MLB history to hit five home runs in multiple games in a single postseason.
Toronto’s 18 hits matched the franchise record for the most in a playoff game.
The Blue Jays also had six different players with multiple hits – tied for the most in a playoff game in franchise history.
Toronto became just the fourth team in MLB history to score 13 runs in multiple games in a single postseason.
Any concerns about a lack of offence have been paused.
So, what happens next?
The road team has won each of the first three games of the series, which is hopefully a good sign for Blue Jays fans that want to see the series come back to Toronto.
The Blue Jays are just the 29th team in MLB postseason history to lose their first two games of a best-of-7 playoff series at home.
Only three of the previous 28 went on to advance.
What are the odds that Toronto joins that short list?
The Blue Jays odds to win the ALCS were cut from +450 to +220 at FanDuel following last night’s win.
Toronto is +108 to win Game 4 with Max Scherzer set to get the start opposite Luis Castillo in Game 4 tonight.
As somebody who is a big believer in momentum and confidence, I’m looking forward to seeing if the Blue Jays can build off last night’s party in Seattle.
In the meantime, Week 7 of the NFL season kicks off with an AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football.
Let’s take a closer look at some early season NFL primetime trends and lock in one final FanDuel Best Bet for tonight’s game in this Thursday October 16th, 2025, edition of Morning Coffee.
Can Flacco Lead Bengals To Upset Over Steelers on Thursday Night Football?
Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
Mike Tyson gave us that unforgettable metaphor to describe the environment that fighters experience when they step inside a boxing ring.
That same sentiment resonates with us across different aspects of life in general, and particularly the pressure and unpredictability that professional athletes and pro sports teams are forced to deal with at the highest level.
Every NFL franchise emphasizes strategy and preparation.
It’s when they are forced to deal with intense adversity and unexpected challenges that we find out whether they have what it takes to reach another level.
The Cincinnati Bengals had a plan for the 2025 season.
Head coach Zac Taylor and Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin focused on locking up their offensive stars long term with record contract extensions for wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
Franchise quarterback Joe Burrow was fully healthy again entering the offseason, and he went to work with Chase and Higgins this summer ready to unlock their untapped potential for the 2025 NFL season.
The Bengals opened with back-to-back wins over the Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Unfortunately, adversity punched them in the mouth once again when Burrow suffered a Grade 3 turf toe injury in their Week 2 win over Jacksonville.
With Burrow sidelined, Cincinnati has lost four in a row.
Even the casual football fan can understand the biggest flaw with investing so heavily in a quarterback and a pair of star wide receivers is that if the QB gets hurt, there’s nobody to get the wide receivers the football.
If the team success is skewed heavily to the play of its QB and receivers, then it’s that much more difficult for the team to overcome a significant quarterback injury.
You can imagine the frustration Chase and Higgins felt after they worked so hard this summer prepping for the season with Burrow, only for him to get hurt in Week 2.
You can also imagine the impact it had on the rest of the organization as they watched backup QB Jake Browning struggle in blowout losses to the Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, and Detroit Lions.
It didn’t help that Browning was forced to take over as Cincinnati entered arguably its most difficult stretch of the season with little preparation.
However, when the Bengals learned that there was a potential upgrade available at the position, they didn’t hesitate to trade for veteran QB Joe Flacco.
Flacco made his first start for Cincinnati on the road against the Green Bay Packers just a few days after he was traded from Cleveland.
The Bengals lost the game 27-18, but there were plenty of positives to take away from that loss.
Flacco went 29-of-45 for 219 yards, and two touchdown passes against one of the league’s best defences.
If nothing else, it was good to see Flacco dropping back and finding Chase and Higgins more than Browning did.
Chase caught 10 passes for 94 yards and a score.
Higgins caught a season-high five passes for 62 yards.
Cincinnati didn’t win the game, but they did cover the spread for the first time since Week 2.
The fact that the Bengals were competitive against the Packers just a few days after acquiring Flacco should inspire hope that their season isn’t completely lost.
“Sounds good to me!”
I asked Joe Flacco about the idea of Ja’Marr Chase going off-script & changing his route(s).
“Hypothetically, if he were to come to me and say that – I’d say ‘Yes sir, that’s what we’re gonna do.'”#Bengals @WCPO pic.twitter.com/6DHUoVBXP1
— Caleb Noe (@CalebNoeTV) October 14, 2025
Additionally, there are reports that Burrow could return as early as Week 16.
Is it a stretch to think that Flacco could keep Cincinnati in the playoff hunt until Burrow returns in December?
Yes.
The Bengals are +880 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.
That number suggests just a 10.2 per cent chance.
However, it’s worth noting that Cincinnati isn’t the only AFC team that is dealing with adversity.
The Baltimore Ravens have been ravaged by injuries.
The Ravens are 1-5 entering their bye week.
However, Baltimore is still +112 to make the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins are also dealing with significant injuries.
While the Chargers are still in decent shape at 4-2, the Dolphins are trending in the opposite direction following a disastrous 1-5 start.
For as bad as things have gone this season, the Bengals are just two games back of an AFC Wild Card spot.
They’re also 2.5 games back of Pittsburgh for first place in the AFC North standings entering tonight’s showdown.
If the Bengals could somehow find a way to upset the Steelers on Thursday Night Football, they will be 3-4 heading into a very winnable game against the currently winless New York Jets in Week 8.
FanDuel bettors aren’t buying a Cincinnati upset.
Per the FanDuel traders, 59 per cent of the bets are on the Steelers to cover as a 5.5-point favourite.
83.6 per cent of the money line bets are on Pittsburgh.
However, that might not be a bad thing considering how the public has fared betting the NFL this season.
Per Evan Abrams of the Action Network, teams with at least 60 per cent of the ATS tickets this season have gone a combined 15-36.
That is the single-worst ATS mark for public bettors in their database spanning back 23 years.
Teams with 70 per cent or more of the tickets are 4-16.
Meanwhile, prime-time underdogs have gone 15-7 ATS through the first six weeks of the season.
NFL underdogs are now 12-9-1 SU & 15-7 ATS in night games this season — the first time through six games dogs are over .500 SU in primetime since 2002. pic.twitter.com/tRZuWoQ8ZH
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) October 14, 2025
The Steelers have hit their stride, going 3-0 straight up and against the spread over their last three games.
However, Pittsburgh is just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in Thursday Night Football games on the road, including four straight losses.
If you read Wednesday’s Morning Coffee column, you already know that I’ve already invested in the star receivers for both teams in this game.
This morning, I’ll lock in Bengals +5.5 as a best bet.
Thursday Night Football underdogs have gone 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread this season.
The Steelers are in a tough spot travelling to play on a short week following their first game after a bye.
Meanwhile, I’m hoping that Flacco’s arrival combined with the news that Burrow could return this season helps lift Cincinnati as they host a division rival with their season on the line.
Hopefully, we get an entertaining and competitive AFC North showdown to kick off Week 7 of the NFL season.
Have a great day, everyone!
DP’s FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Week 7
Cleveland Browns -1.5 vs Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings
Carolina Panthers -1.5 at New York Jets
Ja’Marr Chase over 70.5 receiving yards
Tee Higgins over 45.5 receiving yards
DK Metcalf over 56.5 receiving yards
Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
