For perhaps the first time since 2009, when Kansas State began its current 16-game winning streak over Kansas, this year’s rendition of the Sunflower Showdown feels paramount to both sides of the rivalry.
A win no longer feels guaranteed for the Wildcats. A breakthrough victory feels within reach for the Jayhawks.
This game will mean a great deal to both teams.
The Wildcats (3-4, 2-2 Big 12) can retain the Governor’s Cup and get back to .500 with a victory at 11 a.m. on Saturday in Lawrence. The Jayhawks (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) can pick up a signature win and inch closer to bowl eligibility.
Here’s everything you need to know about the high-stakes game …
K-State at KU: Game details
Kickoff: 11 a.m. Saturday
Where: David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium in Lawrence
TV/stream: TNT
Radio: KCSP (610 AM) and WHB (810) in Kansas City, KFH (1240 AM and 97.5 FM) in Wichita
The line: KU by 3.5 with an O/U of 55.5.
K-State at KU game predictions
From KU beat writer Shreyas Laddha …
Like the previous two seasons, this Sunflower Showdown is a complete toss-up.
On paper, the Jayhawks are more talented. Some would argue that was also the case last season, but it didn’t really matter. Kansas lost another nail-biter with multiple mistakes in the last five minutes. Kansas comes in as a 3.5-point favorite over the Wildcats. In fact, the Jayhawks are favored for the first time in 16 years.
Still, it’s best to throw conventional wisdom out the window with rivalry matchups. And there’s another factor to consider: the weather.
It’s supposed to rain most of the day on Saturday. These conditions pose a problem for the Jayhawks for two reasons. Firstly, KU’s run defense is horrible. Kansas is allowing teams to rush for an average of 188.3 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game.
While it’s true that K-State running back Dylan Edwards won’t play in this game, teams missing their star back have had success against KU this season. Joe Jackson and quarterback Avery Johnson will still provide a formidable challenge for KU’s defense.
The rain could limit Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels’s passing ability. He’s thrown for 1,752 passing yards and 18 touchdowns with just two interceptions so far this year. It’s hard to envision the Jayhawks throwing as much as they have if the rain is significant.
KU’s rushing attack (outside of Daniels) has also left much to be desired. The Jayhawks have struggled to establish the run at times, instead turning to Daniels to carry the offense. Their running back duo of Daniel Hishaw and Leshon Williams will be key, especially if the weather is an issue.
Finally, there’s an element of importance to this game that cannot be understated. Sure, a win would bring KU closer to bowl contention and break a 16-game losing streak in this cross-state series. But this is also the final Sunflower Showdown for Daniels.
He has downplayed the rivalry aspect, but everyone knows how important this game is to him.
He’s looking for a chance at redemption after committing two turnovers in the last five minutes of last year’s game. I believe he’ll get it. It might not be his passing that does it, but expect Daniels to be the difference-maker Saturday.
This is where that losing streak to KSU finally ends.
Score prediction: KU 31, K-State 27
Last game prediction: Texas Tech 42, Kansas 31 ✅(Actual score: Texas Tech 42, Kansas 17)
Season prediction record: 6-1
Season prediction record ATS: 4-3.
From K-State beat writer Kellis Robinett …
After watching K-State win 16 straight games against KU, it’s impossible for me to predict anything other than another win for the Wildcats in this rivalry.
The streak is bound to end at some point. It might even happen on Saturday. This figures to be a close game that comes down to the final moments. And there is a reason why Kansas is favored in the Sunflower Showdown for the first time since 2009.
Still, I trust Avery Johnson and the K-State defense to make clutch plays more than I do Jalon Daniels and the KU defense.
Neither of these teams have excelled in single-score games this season. K-State is 1-4 and KU is 1-1.
But the Wildcats have dug deep in each of the past two seasons and found ways to survive against the Jayhawks. That history will help them remain confident even if KU takes a lead into the fourth quarter.
I’m not sure how to factor in the weather. Most of the time, wet conditions favor the team with a better running game. That’s K-State. But the Wildcats have not played well in rain or snow in recent years. Remember the season-opener against Iowa State? Or last year’s miserable loss at Houston in a monsoon?
Maybe those could be used as learning experiences here.
K-State should be able to find plenty of success running the ball with Avery Johnson and Joe Jackson against a porous KU run defense. The Wildcats should also have a healthy receiving corps with Jayce Brown, Jerand Bradley and Jeron Tibbs all serving as viable options in the passing game.
Daniels could pose problems for the K-State defense with both his arm and his legs. In terms of head coaches, KU’s Lance Leipold has a much better track record than Chris Klieman after a bye week. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the Jayhawks have genius plays dialed up early and win the first quarter and maybe the first half.
But K-State will be ready to play 60 minutes and prevail once again.
Score prediction: K-State 33, KU 30
Last game prediction: K-State 34, TCU 28 ✅ (Final score: K-State 41, TCU 28)
Season prediction record: 5-2
Season prediction record ATS: 6-1
Season record O/U: 4-3.
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Kellis Robinett
The Wichita Eagle
Kellis Robinett covers Kansas State athletics for The Wichita Eagle and The Kansas City Star. A winner of more than a dozen national writing awards, he lives in Manhattan with his wife and four children.
