Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings – The Blueprint

I will update through Sunday morning, so come back then for final news reactions, and check out my content on YouTube, podcasts, and X.

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1. Christian McCaffrey – 123.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB2 on RB1 usage this month, and it’s an eruption spot here. The 49ers are 2nd in projected points (28.5) against the Titans, who have DPOY candidate Jeffery Simmons for what it’s worth.

2. Jahmyr Gibbs – 120.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

3. De’Von Achane – 113.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • It’s an eruption spot if he can get cleared with ribs. I think he will. Achane has been fantastic on tape with two quality athletic OL in LT Patrick Paul and potential All-Pro C Aaron Brewer. The Dolphins have become more run-heavy without Tyreek Hill, and offenses facing the Steelers have the 4th-highest run rate in neutral situations this month. There’s plenty to like.

4. Derrick Henry – 99.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

5. James Cook – 97.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB5 on RB5 usage this month, with his value being increased during the home stretch with the pass-catchers proving lackluster. This week, the Bills are 8th in projected points (25.75) in New England, and opposing offenses have ran the ball at the 2nd-highest rate against the Patriots this month. A study diet of runs is expected as usual.

6. Bijan Robinson – 116.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB3 on RB6 usage this month, and it’s another challenge this week. The Buccaneers remain a massive pass-funnel defense, and Bijan has felt that throughout his career with 12-24-0, 13-63-0, 12-61-0, and 10-34-1 rushing lines. He has caught 6, 7, 3, and 5 balls in them, but this is a tough test for Kirk Cousins on the road. The team total is at 20.0 points.

7. Travis Etienne

   • It’s an eruption spot with the Jaguars 4th in projected points (27.0) against the Jets without DT Quinnen Williams. Etienne is the RB8 on RB18 usage this month, but last week was a huge split away from rookie Bhayshul Tuten, who fumbled on special teams and then as a ballcarrier before losing his job for the rest of the game. Etienne isn’t going anything wrong, so a healthy portion of the backfield is likely going his way as games get more and more important.

8. Chase Brown – 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the RB13 on RB13 usage this month. Brown has been better behind an improved OL, currently ranking as the RB2 in short-yardage success rate this season. Joe Burrow is playing very well, and now the Bengals are 9th in projected points (25.25) this week. The Ravens are a relative challenge but their DL just isn’t very good without the soon-to-be-retired Nnamdi Madubuike.

9. Kyren Williams

   • The drive-by-drive rotation isn’t going anywhere with Blake Corum playing well, but Williams isn’t going to lose snaps all of a sudden either. This is a good rotation not worth tinkering with. In 6 games since the bye, Williams has averaged 15.0 half PPR points (RB12) on 12.2 expected points (RB24 usage). Like usual, the Rams are 1st in projected points (30.75) this week against a pretty beat up Lions defense at home.

10. Bucky Irving – 84.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • On a per-game basis, Irving is the RB8 this season, but he wasn’t a bellcow last week. Irving played 49% snaps, leading to 10.3 expected half PPR points. He rotated with Rachaad White in negative script late but at least started the game and ripped off an explosive. In general, the Bucs offense is just average without Liam Coen and a far-more-injured OL. Hopefully elite LT Tristan Wirfs can return to calm Baker Mayfield down because LG Ben Bredeson went to IR this week. They’re expected to have Mike Evans here, so I don’t expect the Bucs to remain 3rd-lowest in neutral pass rate. That said, the Falcons are light in the shorts and a run funnel defense. Tampa Bay has a solid 24.5-point team total.

11. Saquon Barkley – 99.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He luckily had a 52-yard pitch TD on a Tush Push variant, but his other 20 carries went for 69 yards on a terrible 25% success rate against the Chargers. LG Landon Dickerson momentarily left with an injury, the RG has been bad, and the TEs are struggling, too. Everything feels rotten, but at least the Eagles are 10th in projected points (24.75) this week against the Raiders, who have the best odds of having the 1st-overall pick. It’s a spot to have some promise, despite his RB27 ranking on RB19 usage this month.

12. RJ Harvey – 76.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB11 on RB7 usage this month, coming off a season-high 20.2 expected half PPR points last week. Harvey will catch 1-2 manufactured targets and then be a quick check-down asset in the pass game, and he’s been the primary goal-line back for weeks now. In general, it’s a very RB-heavy offense. In fact, Denver is 1st in RB usage this month. With DT Devonte Wyatt on IR, opposing offenses have ran the ball at the highest rate against the Packers this month, too, so Harvey is firmly in “Too Big To Fail” here. A 20.75-point team total at home is the primary weakness.

13. Josh Jacobs – 83.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • In his last 4 healthy games, all of which without Tucker Kraft, Jacobs has averaged 15.8 half PPR points on 15.2 expected half PPR points (RB12 usage), despite the haters and losers of which there are many. Jacobs is a bulldozer with great patience on film, and he eats near the goal-line. The Packers are only projected for 22.75 points this week in Denver, but the floor is 15+ touches even if there’s a fire.

14. Javonte Williams

    • He’s the RB19 on RB8 usage this month with no competition behind him. The Cowboys are 6th in projected points (26.5) at home against the Vikings, who have been stout in run defense after adding multiple quality front-seven starters this offseason.

15. Woody Marks

    • He’s the RB38 on RB10 usage this month, coming off a season-high 21.9 expected half PPR points in Kansas City. Marks played almost every snap (61-of-62) without Nick Chubb (ribs), and they claimed a RB off waivers afterwards. The offense is still hit-and-miss, but it looks better on tape and they’re projected for the 7th-most points (26.0) this week against Cardinals. Arizona missed 1st-round DT Walter Nolen last week when Blake Corum shredded them.

16. D’Andre Swift – 72.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB32 on RB26 usage this month as a buy low candidate. Swift has had at least 12.0 expected half PPR points in 6-of-7 recent games as the starter in a 1-2 punch backfield and is the RB17 per game across the whole year. The Bears remain run-committed behind a very quality OL, and Swift is making fewer mistakes as he’s settled into this outside zone identity. The Bears face another uphill battle on offense with the Browns and Myles Garrett coming to town, but they are 10th in RB usage this month, so there’s enough volume for hope, especially with DT Maliek Collins on IR.

17. Jonathan Taylor

    • Oh no… The Colts are 2nd-lowest in projected points (14.5) in Seattle with a grandpa potentially coming in to save the day. Taylor is just the RB22 on RB15 usage this month with the Colts regressing, and this is by far the worst spot on paper. Philip Rivers will have to get the ball out within 2.5 seconds to survive, so a more Taylor-centric offense would make sense. It’s just no longer a good one. In fact, it’s probably a very bad one this week. The closest comps are suddenly Breece Hall (RB35 on RB24 usage this month), Quinshon Judkins (RB28 on RB22 usage this month), and Ashton Jeanty (RB34 on RB17 usage this month).

18. TreVeyon Henderson – 66.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • With Rhamondre Stevenson back the last two weeks, Henderson has had 13.3 and 15.3 expected half PPR points, equivalent to RB17 usage in blowout wins. This is his Post Bye Rookie Bump, and the Bills are a run-funnel defense, so there’s more upside than that. Henderson will need to work behind multiple backup line men, and his lackluster size makes him a dog for goal-line work. Henderson reminds me of Raheem Mostert as a boom-bust rusher with some flaws and clear strengths to his game. The Patriots project for 24.75 points at home.

19. Kenneth Walker

    • Things are looking up in the consolation bracket. Walker is playing about 67% of the snaps before the 4th quarters, when he’s taken out with the rest of the starters. If things can stay close, Walker’s touches will climb, but the Seahawks are too good? The Seahawks are 3rd in projected points (28.0) this week against an injured Colts team crossing the country. Walker will lose the 2-minute drill and some of the goal-line work, but things are leaning more towards Walker before garbage time right now. Has that led to fantasy points? Well, that’s been the problem. No excuses here for the season-long RB28 per game. (I’m sure there will be an excuse).

20. Rico Dowdle

    • He’s the RB30 on RB9 usage this month, and it’s been a roller coaster before the bye. Dowdle started but lost the hot hand to Chuba Hubbard in an extremely run-heavy game plan in weather. Hubbard looked healthy and is a coach’s favorite, so a committee approach must be the baseline assumption moving forward. Dowdle in theory has the short-yardage advantage, but who knows? A mediocre 21.25-point team total against the Saints awaits and a repeat of his 10.0 expected half PPR points from Week 13 feels like a fair projection here.

21. Quinshon Judkins

    • He’s the RB28 on RB22 usage this month. The Browns are 4th-lowest in projected points (16.0) this week, and Judkins is running behind backups at LT, C, RG, and RT right now after C Ethan Pocic popped his achilles last week. The offense is making mental errors, but Judkins has a lot of juice on film when given space. The Bears are healthier now than last month for what it’s worth. Expect Dylan Sampson to inherit whatever Jerome Ford (IR) is leaving behind.

22. Ashton Jeanty – 74.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB34 on RB17 usage this month, and Jeanty is the worst short-yardage success rate back on the season behind this porous OL. Nothing’s changed. The Raiders are lowest in projected points (13.75) this week with Kenny Pickett at QB, so Jeanty will have to be a PPR scam to have a chance against the Eagles defense. He’s not coming off the field at least!

23. Devin Singletary

    • There’s been 5 healthy games without Cam Skattebo, and the Giants have used their backs fairly evenly with Singletary averaging 11.4 expected half PPR points to Tyrone Tracy’s 10.6. Singletary is more likely to have a goal-line touchdown, while Tracy is more involved in the pass game. The former may be extra important if Jaxson Dart is no longer given QB designed runs due to concussions. This week is an eruption spot against the Commanders. They’re projected for 24.0 points at home, and the Giants are very quietly 12th in EPA per play. Tracy (hip) is healthy, but Singletary is the RB14 on RB23 usage this month along side him.

24. Tyrone Tracy – 67.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

25. Aaron Jones – 73.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB44 on RB34 usage this month with bad QB play. In a random blowout win last week, the Vikings tried something new: a drive-by-drive rotation between Jones and Jordan Mason. They committed to the ground game, and it worked against a lifeless Commanders unit at home. Things won’t be that easy with the Cowboys’ DL on the road, however. Minnesota projects for 21.0 points here.

26. Omarion Hampton

    • The 1st-round rookie looked explosive in a straight line and finished the game healthy. Hampton did get crushed in pass protection and played fewer snaps than Kimani Vidal, however. They split touches fairly evenly, leading to 13.7 expected half PPR points to Vidal’s 11.5. Unfortunately, the OL is a stone-cold disaster, and Justin Herbert is clearly not the same with a broken hand. Their team total is the 7th-lowest of the week at 18.75 points against DT Chris Jones and the Chiefs. They’ll blitz like crazy, so perhaps Vidal has to play as much as he did last week due to protection. I’d be surprised if Hampton was a bellcow or if the Chargers popped off in this one.

27. Breece Hall

    • Update: He was a DNP (knee soreness) on Wednesday. It was Brady Cook at QB, too.

    • The Jets are 2nd-lowest in projected points (14.5). If Brady Cook starts, it’s Alamo Bowl level QB play against a turnover-savvy Jaguars defense. He’s the RB35 on RB24 usage this month after 4.3 half PPR outing on just 9.8 expected points. Hall is the RB21 per game across the season, and things look worse here.

28. Kyle Monangai

    • He’s the RB21 on RB29 usage this month, while largely rotating drives with D’Andre Swift. That’s led to at least 9.4 expected half PPR points in 4-straight outings. The Bears face another uphill battle on offense with the Browns and Myles Garrett coming to town, but they are 10th in RB usage this month, so there’s enough volume for hope, especially with DT Maliek Collins on IR.

29. Chris Rodriguez

    • Update: He did not practice (groin) on Wednesday.

    • It’s an eruption spot at the Giants against the worst rushing EPA defense, but the baseline is the baseline. C-Rod is the RB41 on RB36 usage this month as the lead back. He’ll lose some touches to Bill and then the pass-game work to Jeremy McNichols before whatever happens at QB and with Deebo Samuel. Rodriguez needs the Commanders to play better in general to have a chance for a red zone score. They have a 22.0-point team total.

30. Blake Corum

    • He’s the RB29 on RB45 usage this month. Last week was his breakout performance, but nothing really changed. Corum was in the same drive-by-drive rotation behind Kyren Williams. He just had multiple explosives. His tape has been good all year, and the Rams are 1st in projected points (30.75) once again, so he can have random big games at any time. Right now, the Rams’ 52% rushing success rate is the best of the decade. In fact, the 2nd-best rushing success rate offense was down at 50% (2018 Todd Gurley Rams).

31. Kenneth Gainwell

    • He’s the RB12 on RB12 usage this month. What?!?! His 27% targets per route on the year is that of an elite WR1, and he seems to be a favorite of both OC Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers who is coming off the best game as a Steeler. Gainwell has averaged 13.5 expected half PPR points in the last 3 games since Jaylen Warren’s minor injury, equivalent to RB20 usage. He’s capable of earning the hot hand, but his value really is tied to being a chess piece in the receiving game. Last week, he had 6 receptions. 2 were in 2-RB sets, 1 from the slot, and 3 on the same odd screen that were checks by Rodgers. He also was used on goal line runs, leading to 19.0 expected half PPR points. That was a season-high in a game with Warren healthy. It was extremely weird but intriguing usage and it seemed to work for everyone.

32. Jaylen Warren – 65.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB18 on RB28 usage this month, but Kenny Gainwell is making real noise as a trusted pass-game option capable of vulturing Warren at the goal line, too. It’s a full-blown committee, and the Steelers are very up-and-down on offense. They’re projected for 22.75 points against an emerging Dolphins defense that’s 6th-best in rushing success allowed since October. It’ll be harder to establish the run without LT Broderick Jones (IR) the rest of the way.

33. David Montgomery – 47.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB37 on RB49 usage this month. His snaps have decreased, and the Lions are becoming more pass-heavy with HC Dan Campbell calling plays. Montgomery shined on Thanksgiving with a big play TD, but it was a season-low 3.5 expected half PPR points under the hood. The Lions will be in a high-scoring dome environment against the Rams this week, so Monty could rip a signature goal-line score.

34. Kareem Hunt

    • He’s had 11.1 and 12.8 expected half PPR points in the last two games (RB24 usage), even with Isaiah Pacheco back in the mix stealing some early-down work. Hunt is simply one of the best RBs in the game with 0-3 yards to go, and the Chiefs hand it to him plenty at the goal line. Kansas City’s OL is missing key pieces, thus their team total sits at a league-average 22.75 points.

35. Devin Neal

    • The 6th-round rookie has been totally fine, even if there’s below-average pop in his legs. He’s the RB30 on RB31 usage this month as a the clear-cut starter in a pretty bad situation up front, and Neal scored on a season-high 12.8 expected half PPR points last week with Tyler Shough shocking the Bucs on the road. The Saints are 7th-lowest in projected points (18.75) once again vs. the Panthers, who have DT Derrick Brown.

36. Chuba Hubbard

    • He’s the RB25 on RB41 usage this month, but Hubbard proved healthy in Week 13 and established a hot hand against the Rams in weather. That led to 10.0 expected half PPR points for Rico Dowdle and 9.9 for Hubbard. The team captain has earned a committee role, and the Panthers are 27th in neutral pass rate this month, so there could be room for both if game script allows. A road matchup with the Saints is just that, so Hubbard is in the boom-bust FLEX mix. Carolina is projected for 21.25 points.

37. Tony Pollard – 52.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB26 on RB35 usage this month. Pollard had 7-straight games between 4.5 and 9.1 half PPR points with Tyjae Spears mixing in before randomly bagging 28.1 half PPR points last week. Nothing changed, however. He rotated with Spears and the pass game looked awful. Pollard just busted off two long runs. It happens but isn’t worth changing priors over. The Titans are 4th-lowest in projected points (16.0) this week in San Francisco. They are really banged up defensively at least.

38. Zach Charbonnet

    • He’s the RB40 on RB40 usage this month. His role has slightly decreased early in the game recently in favor of more Kenneth Walker. At least the Seahawks are 3rd in projected points (28.0) this week, and Charbonnet has been the RB32 per game over the entire year.

39. Jordan Mason

40. Rhamondre Stevenson – 52.5 total yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the RB53 on RB33 usage this month, and in his last 4 healthy games without Antonio Gibson, Stevenson is averaging 8.1 half PPR points on 11.3 expected points (RB28 usage). He’s not fast, and the Patriots can’t block with two starters out of the lineup, so the ceiling is tied to goal-line scores where he has the girth advantage to TreVeyon Henderson. The matchup is favorable on paper against the Bills’ run-funnel defense, but would you actually take the ball out of Drake Maye’s hands in favor of the No. 30 rushing EPA offense?

41. Zonovan Knight

    • We’ll see if Emari Demarcado (ankle) returns this week after he was able to get in some limited practices before being ruled out last week. If it’s just Knight and Michael Carter, then it’s fairly straight forward. Knight when it’s close and then Carter when they’re trailing. Knight is the RB23 on RB32 usage this month with that being the set up. He’s at least provided 8-straight games with 7.9 expected half PPR points, too, but we are playing with fire now. The Cardinals placed OG Will Hernandez and RT Jonah Williams on IR within the last month and then lost LT Paris Johnson (MCL) last week. Next up, the Texans. Yikes.

42. Kimani Vidal

    • He had 11.5 expected half PPR points with Omarion Hampton back. Vidal ripped off another explosive and played more snaps than the 1st-round rookie, who scored near the goal line. It should be another committee approach, especially with DC Steve Spagnuolo’s blitzing defense on schedule. Hampton was lost in protection last week, and that’s unacceptable with Justin Hebert’s hand.

43. Tyler Allgeier

1. Puka Nacua – 98.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

2. Ja’Marr Chase – 93.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba – 98.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

4. Amon-Ra St. Brown – 76.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He should be back to near full health after 10 days from last Thursday Night Football, when he actually looked halfway decent. The Lions are projected for negative game script in a dome against an injured zone-based secondary. Everything about this matchup looks appetizing.

5. Nico Collins – 74.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR10 on WR17 usage this month, but the Texans have faced a daunting schedule and have shown more than they did early on. CJ Stroud missed him for a long TD but made up for it with a 53-yarder out of structure. Their team total, 26 points, is way up this week against the Cardinals, who haven’t stopped anyone in a very long time.

6. Davante Adams – 60.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR15 on WR11 usage this month, but this is a matchup that’s more pro Adams than not. The Lions play a lot of man coverage, have injuries in the secondary, and have strong LBs which could mean fewer 3-TE sets. The Rams are projected for 30.75 points in the highest-totaled game of the week, by far.

7. A.J. Brown – 62.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the WR4 on WR3 usage this month. Last week was extremely up and down. He’s running more slants and crossers (good), but the drops aren’t going away as he’s taken a step back on tape while playing on a long-term concerning knee. The Eagles have no excuse against the Raiders this week. They just placed a starting CB on IR this week.

8. George Pickens – 78.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

9. CeeDee Lamb

10. Jameson Williams – 61.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Since Week 10 when Dan Campbell took over the sticks and when Sam LaPorta exited the lineup, Jamo is averaging 15.2 half PPR points on 10.8 expected points (WR23 usage). It can be a bit of a rollercoaster with him, but they are in a dome as 5-point dogs in the highest-scoring game of the week. The Rams have multiple starters in the secondary on IR now, too.

11. Rashee Rice – 69.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s not a real WR1 on tape, but that’s okay here. The Chiefs face a zone-based defense against the Chargers this week, and that’s where Rice does all of his damage. He’s the WR12 on WR4 usage this month, coming off a season-low 8.3 expected half PPR points against the Texans’ elite defense. The Chargers aren’t far off, ranking 4th in EPA per dropback and 4th in success rate.

12. Jakobi Meyers – 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR14 on WR13 usage this month, posting a season-high 19.3 expected half PPR points last week. It was probably the best game of Trevor Lawrence’s career, too. The Jaguars have the 4th-highest team total of the week against a pass funnel Titans defense.

13. Michael Wilson – 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) did not practice Wednesday, and Wilson is the WR1 on WR1 overall usage this month, largely without him. Wilson is extremely QB friendly and can run the entire route tree. He’ll have to do so against Pro Bowl CB1 Derek Stingley and with Jacoby Brissett missing their top-3 OL against that front. It’s a very worrisome spot for the entire offense, even with Wilson’s elite usage.

14. Tetairoa McMillan – 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR2 on WR20 usage this month, coming off his Post Bye Rookie Bump. Aside from just catching every pass, there’s not too much McMillan needs to get better at. The Panthers will continue to operate a balanced offense that can keep the rookie’s floor lower than comfortable, but McMillan is on an OROY pace despite that. If Bryce Young can not rank dead last in 10+ air yard accuracy, that’d also be nice. The Saints are a fine matchup here.

15. Chris Olave – 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR25 on WR24 usage this month. That’s been 10.8 half PPR points on 10.5 expected points in the 6 games with Tyler Shough, who has my interest for his ability to extend plays on top of spinning the ball towards the sideline. Olave should’ve scored a TD on a 47-yard FG last week with a blatant DPI (missed by officials) last week. Nothing has really changed here.

16. DeVonta Smith – 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Everything has stalled out, and Smith dropped a screen last week to make matters worse. The good news is the matchup with the Raiders, who just sent a starting CB to IR on top of already being terrible. They play a lot of zone coverage where Smith’s numbers are particularly solid, and the Eagles are at least projected for 25.0 points at home. No excuses here. He’s the WR50 on WR25 usage this month, and he’s been a model dunker for his entire career. It’s never this way around.

17. Terry McLaurin – 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR17 on WR2 usage this month in 2 games. McLaurin won’t have Jayden Daniels (elbow), but Marcus Mariota has held the line throughout the last couple seasons. McLaurin looks better than Deebo Samuel at this point, but his involvement is pretty downfield-reliant, which means he’s volatile week-to-week.

18. Wan’Dale Robinson – 59.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR16 on WR12 usage this month, and things look excellent here. The Commanders are without their outside CB1 and CB2 with nothing to play for right now. The Giants, meanwhile, are quietly 12th in EPA per play and have a great 24.0-point team total. Shout out Jaxson Dart for turning the offense around immediately.

19. Jaylen Waddle – 56.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Without Tyreek Hill, Waddle is averaging 12.1 half PPR points on 10.0 expected points (WR26 usage), but the run game has stepped up recently in ways the pass game hasn’t. He’s dropped to WR27 on WR28 usage this month with De’Von Achane being the clear centerpiece. Waddle is a big play waiting to happen and the Steelers have had coverage busts this year, so hopefully he can make the most of his steady WR2/3 usage. This one is in Pittsburgh.

20. Christian Watson – 57.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR7 on WR27 usage this month. Buying the top of this profile can be dangerous. Watson ran just 21 routes last week with Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed healthy. He’s not a full-time player, and the Packers are quite balanced, especially in the red zone. Watson has to be a stone-cold baller to stay in the upside WR2 mix. The good news is he’s reaching 21.6 MPH in the open field and has been on the receiving end of elite placement from Jordan Love, who is leading the NFL in EPA per dropback. He’ll face off with All Pro CB1 Patrick Surtain on the perimeter this week with the Packers just projected for 22.25 points on the road.

21. Zay Flowers – 65.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR26 on WR26 usage this month, but let’s do some cherry-picking math here. Flowers averages 10.8 half PPR points on 10.3 expected points if we take the first 4 games and last 4 games of the season when Lamar Jackson was at his healthiest. The Ravens offense is capable of explosives but Lamar is missing and turning down throws over the middle more than before. Flowers will have to beat Pro-Bowl CB1 D.J. Turner this week. Cincy is a TE and RB funnel for the most part.

22. Jauan Jennings – 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Since George Kittle returned in Week 7, Jennings has averaged 9.9 half PPR points on 10.0 expected points (WR26 usage). That hasn’t dropped with downfield threat Ricky Pearsall in this mix because Jennings continues to get used within 15 yards and in zone-based matchups. The 49ers are about to take off after the bye with Brock Purdy likely way healthier, and this is a cupcake matchup against the pass-funnel Titans at home. They project for the 2nd-most points at 28.5.

23. DK Metcalf – 52.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Out of nowhere, Aaron Rodgers turned back the clock last week. Metcalf ate on go balls and then had some YAC moments, too. He’s the WR20 on WR15 usage this month after a 21.5-expected-point explosion.

24. Justin Jefferson – 55.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • His two receptions last week were screens, and even though the team put up 31 points, McCarthy’s decision-making and accuracy remained iffy. He just mixed in some nice line-drive throws. Hopefully those start going towards Jefferson, but the sample size is getting bigger and the fantasy points are getting smaller. That’s 8.5 half PPR points (WR31) on 11.3 expected points (WR21 usage) in games with this QB. This is a week with hope against the pass-funnel Cowboys in a dome.

25. Deebo Samuel – 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • In 6 games with Terry McLaurin, Samuel is averaging 9.8 expected half PPR points (WR28 usage). His tape is a bit more sluggish and less locked in now than in September, but the Giants keep firing defensive coaches and benching defensive backs, so the matchup is clean. Marcus Mariota has held the line, as evidenced by the Commanders’ 22.25-point team total here. He’s the WR21 on WR23 usage this month.

26. Brian Thomas – 46.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • His targets are going to be fairly low as the primary downfield threat, but Thomas looked healthy on tape when Trevor Lawrence hung a career-best outing. Thomas has long-TD hope with the team total up at 27.5 points (4th-highest) against a man-heavy Jets defense without Sauce Garnder. If there’s ever a time to get some money back from the 2nd-round fantasy bust, it’s here.

27. Courtland Sutton – 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR19 on WR16 usage this month, and things have trended up with Troy Franklin’s snaps regressing in favor of physical blocking type Pat Bryant. The Broncos’ matchup is far harder this week against the run-funnel Packers.

28. Stefon Diggs – 51.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR37 on WR36 usage this month, but since his huge Week 5 game against the Bills (10-146-0), Diggs has averaged 10.0 half PPR points on 9.0 expected points. That’s WR22 on WR31 usage. In that Buffalo game, Diggs had an explosive on a broken play and consistently sat in zone for YAC plays. He largely dodged stud CB1 Christian Benford, who will likely match up with Kayshon Boutte instead. The Bills have improved their secondary and haven’t fixed their run defense since then, so it’s not as clean of a matchup despite the revenge game narrative. The Patriots project for 24.5 points at home. He ran a route on 63% of dropbacks last week with the WR room fully healthy.

29. Mike Evans – 42.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Coming off a collarbone injury should mean Evans hits the ground running with a near full serving of snaps. In his 3 healthy games, Evans had between 11.4 and 16.2 expected half PPR points, equivalent to WR11 usage. Unfortunately that was all the way back in Weeks 1-3 and that was without Chris Godwin and before Emeka Egbuka’s breakout. Godwin isn’t the same, and Egbuka has really cooled off, however. Evans’ size will hopefully allow Baker Mayfield to no longer rank bottom-3 in accuracy on 10+ air yard throws, but Mayfield is seemingly playing through injuries, including on his left shoulder. The Falcons will have CB1 A.J. Terrell and FS Jesse Bates eyeing Evans here.

30. Emeka Egbuka – 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • In 8 games with one of Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, Egbuka is averaging 11.2 expected half PPR points (WR21 usage), and now both are active. The rookie has had the yips at the catch point, and Mayfield’s accuracy is now well below the league average.

31. Ladd McConkey – 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s dropped to WR56 on WR45 usage this month, and McConkey was completely shut down by SCB Cooper DeJean with Justin Herbert running for his life. I’m extremely worried about the Chargers OL against Chris Jones and these Chiefs blitzes. Their 18.0-point team total is sad.

32. Ricky Pearsall – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Uh oh, he’s the WR112 on WR73 usage this month. Pearsall looks healthy on tape, but his routes are so downfield that there’s no weekly floor. He needs the explosive, and there are only so many opportunities with CMC, Kittle, and Jennings getting the far-easier looks. Now, the 49ers are projected for 28.5 points (2nd most), and the Titans are a pass-funnel defense. The chance for a huge game thanks to explosives is higher than normal.

33. Luther Burden – 39.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Without Rome Odunze (foot), Burden had a season-high 8.6 expected half PPR points despite only running a route on 67% of dropbacks. They simply don’t fully trust him yet, and that’s fair to me. His athleticism still pops, but he’ll have to do so against CB1 Denzel Ward this time around. That’s a tough task.

34. Jayden Higgins – 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The rookie is averaging 9.2 half PPR points on 9.5 expected points over his last 5 games with Nico Collins back in the mix. Last week was his worst, understandably so in Kansas City. He’s passed the eye test, and now the Texans project for 26.0 points at home against a beatable Cardinals defense. It’s a solid time to believe in his WR34 on WR31 usage stats from this past month. Hopefully he runs a route on more than 59% of dropbacks this time around.

35. Jordan Addison – 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR55 on WR33 usage this month, and that’s 5.9 half PPR points on 9.2 expected points (WR31 usage) in 5 games with JJ McCarthy. The Vikings went extremely balanced in their home win against the Commanders, and McCarthy made enough throws to his TEs to easily win. The throws to the WRs remain a total lottery ticket, and Addison hasn’t helped him out with a couple crucial drops. McCarthy might have to win in the normal dropback game against the Cowboys’ pass funnel defense and elite offense. They project for just 21.0 points.

36. Darius Slayton – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • His last 4 healthy games with Jaxson Dart has averaged 8.6 half PPR points on 6.5 expected points. Not great. Also not terrible. Slayton has big-game ability because he’s used down the field and pairs well with Dart’s extended-play game. The Giants project for 24.0 points in a great matchup with the Commanders, who don’t have either of their top-2 CBs.

37. Jayden Reed – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He ran a route on 63% of dropbacks last week, only playing in 3-WR sets. That leaves him with no floor, but Reed is a good player in a great offense. He should mostly dodge All Pro CB1 Patrick Surtain in this one. Green Bay is only projected for 22.25 points in Denver, however.

38. Khalil Shakir – 43.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

39. Michael Pittman – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • The Colts are projected for just 14.5 points against the Seahawks, and it’s looking like it’ll be a grandpa at QB. If Philip Rivers can do anything, it’s reading things out within 10 yards, which is where Pittman does most of his damage. If they lean into the RPO world, that’s particularly true. Unfortunately, the most likely outcome is borderline disaster. He’s the WR31 on WR22 usage this month, and this is a downgraded situation.

40. Xavier Worthy – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR40 on WR43 usage this month, coming off a season-low 4.5 expected half PPR points last week against the Texans’ physical defense. Worthy when he’s not fully healthy is quite limited in the ways he can win. He needs to win over the top or find a seam on an underneath touch. The Chargers are very disciplined in their zone coverage and are designed to not get beat over the top.

41. Devaughn Vele – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR22 on WR30 usage this month since the Rashid Shaheed trade, popping off for one huge game and two duds. His usage has been steady, however. The Saints are getting fine play from Tyler Shough all things considered and project for 18.75 points against the Panthers at home. They are getting their CB1 back here.

42. Adonai Mitchell – 45.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

43. Cooper Kupp – 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

44. Quentin Johnston – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

45. Kayshon Boutte – 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

46. Pat Bryant – 32.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

47. Chris Godwin – 38.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • In 5 “healthy” games, Godwin is averaging just 8.5 expected half PPR points (WR34 usage), and now Mike Evans is back in the lineup with Baker Mayfield playing like a shell of himself due to injuries. The offense is also less slot happy without OC Liam Coen.

48. DJ Moore – 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR46 on WR38 usage this month, and he finished with negative yards in his first game without Rome Odunze. Moore isn’t a man beater or consistent route runner, so it’s hard to have him as a full-time player and outside replacement. That will be extra exposed against a man-heavy Browns defense with Denzel Ward.

49. Jerry Jeudy – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the WR47 on WR57 usage this month. Jeudy’s long TD was an off-script play where he cooked the CB at the line of scrimmage, but it’s also hard to re-create. Jeudy is working on big crossers which can be very hot and cold. This is a fine matchup against the Bears, but the Browns are projected for 15.75 points still.

50. Alec Pierce – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

51. Darnell Mooney – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

52. Romeo Doubs – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

53. Keenan Allen – 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

54. Tre Tucker – 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

55. Chimere Dike

56. Rashid Shaheed – 28.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

1. Trey McBride – 68.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the TE1 on TE1 usage this month, and Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel) isn’t practicing again. The Cardinals’ OL is without LT Paris Johnson, OG Will Hernandez, and RT Jonah Williams right now, so expect a quick-hitting offense in negative script. Everything just funnels to McBride, and it works. He’s averaged 17.5 half PPR on 16.0 expected points since Week 6 with Jacoby Brissett dragging the offense to the No. 1 neutral pass rate offense.

2. George Kittle – 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s averaging 13.3 half PPR points on 9.0 expected points in his last 5 healthy games, enough for TE2 on TE8 usage this month. This week is an eruption spot against the Titans with a 28.5-point team total. This is the type of game where Kittle can go absolutely nuts, especially with Tennessee turning into a pass funnel with DT Jeffery Simmons disrupting things on the ground.

3. Kyle Pitts – 58.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the TE14 on TE20 usage this month but is coming off a season-high 11.6 expected half PPR points last week and then was schemed up multiple targets the week prior. Pitts was legitimately running by defenders on film and looks healthy. With Drake London (knee) ruled out, Pitts is back to being their top target, and the Buccaneers remain a huge pass funnel.

4. Brock Bowers – 50.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • A top-3 has formed over the past month, with Hunter Henry also popping up huge against the Bengals. Bowers is still attached to the lowest-projected offense (13.5 points), however, now with Kenny Pickett instead of Geno Smith. The Eagles have SCB Cooper DeJean, CB1 Quinyon Mitchell, and LB Zack Baun to cover Bowers, too. Another trend worth monitoring is opposing CB1s traveling with Bowers… everywhere! The Broncos did that with Patrick Surtain last week, even lining him up when he was inline and in the slot. Bowers is very good, but is he a better route runner than real outside receivers? That’s an entirely different bar to clear. The Raiders need one other option to keep defenses honest here.

5. Dalton Kincaid – 41.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the most efficient receiving TE this year, and Kincaid should play more snaps in Week 15 after returning last week in snowy conditions with hamstring and knee injuries. Kincaid’s YAC ability over the middle is extremely valuable with the rest of the receiver room busting. The Bills have a 25.75-point team total in a crucial game with the Patriots, who are a mini pass funnel on defense with thumper types at linebacker. His best game of the year was against them (7-110-0 on 7 targets). His speed stood out.

6. Harold Fannin – 47.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • He’s the TE6 on TE15 usage this month and last week was a season-high 13.3 expected half PPR points with David Njoku (knee) banged up. Fannin played 90% of the snaps without him, and he’s their best pass catcher on tape. That’s underneath and down the field field. He’s on pace for a borderline top-5 rookie TE season in half PPR despite being on the Browns!!! This after a 117-reception season in college last year. This is real as hell.

7. Mark Andrews – 34.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

   • The rock is going to the Ravens’ TEs right now, and the Bengals can’t stop any TE. It’s an eruption spot. I know it. You know it. They know it. That’s 20.4 half PPR points per game to TEs. For reference, the 2nd-worst defense is at 13.3!!!

8. Travis Kelce – 44.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

9. Brenton Strange

10. Mike Gesicki – 30.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Last week was a season-high 9.0 expected half PPR points, and Gesicki’s touchdown came with Tee Higgins (concussion) sidelined. Without Higgins on the field over the past 2 seasons, Gesicki’s 1.75 yards per route ranks 7th-best at the position. Unfortunately, he will see some SS Kyle Hamilton, but this is a good spot with Joe Burrow playing so well.

11. Jake Ferguson

    • He’s the TE12 on TE7 usage this month with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens dominating looks. Ferguson is back at home with the 6th-highest team total, and the Vikings’ zone blitzing can mean some looks to TEs.

12. Hunter Henry – 40.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the TE4 on TE2 overall this month, but that includes destroying the Bengals inept defense. In the last 4 other games, Henry is averaging 6.1 half PPR points on 8.1 expected half PPR points (TE13 usage). The Bills are very good stopping outside WRs but have also allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs, too. Henry had 2-46-0 on 4 targets back in Week 5.

13. Theo Johnson – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • It’s an eruption spot against the Commanders and slow-footed Bobby Wagner. Johnson is the TE19 on TE9 usage, as a buy low candidate, and the Giants are quietly projected for 24.0 points this week. On the season, they’re 12th in EPA per play!!! It’s a solid spot all around.

14. Colston Loveland – 36.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • This assumes Rome Odunze (foot) is out. Without him last week, Loveland had 8.5 expected half PPR points and he found the end zone despite facing a tough Packers defense. The Browns play a lot of man coverage and have a fellow great rookie in LB Carson Schwesinger to match up with Loveland over the middle.

15. AJ Barner

16. Isaiah Likely – 31.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • Last week was a season-high 11.5 expected half PPR points, and now it’s the Bengals. They can’t stop any TE. It’s an eruption spot. I know it. You know it. They know it. That’s 20.4 half PPR points per game to TEs. For reference, the 2nd-worst defense is at 13.3!!!

17. Colby Parkinson – 29.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • In his last 5 games, Parkinson is averaging 9.6 half PPR points on 7.6 expected points (TE16 usage) with Sean McVay so deep in his 3-TE bag. That sample has largely been without Tyler Higbee (IR). The Lions are actually really deep at LB compared to CB, so we might see less 3-TE plays this week, but Parkinson has ran a route on 61% of dropbacks since Higbee’s injury.

18. Tyler Warren – 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

    • He’s the TE18 on TE6 usage this month with the Colts regressing. Now, it’s worse. The Seahawks are most vulnerable against TEs but are otherwise great defensively. The Colts, with a grandpa at QB, are only projected for 14.5 points this week.

19. Juwan Johnson – 37.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

20. Dalton Schultz – 35.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

21. Darren Waller

22. Dallas Goedert – 33.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

23. Oronde Gadsden

24. Evan Engram – 23.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

25. T.J. Hockenson – 26.5 receiving yards in Underdog Pick’em.

1. Josh Allen

2. Matthew Stafford

3. Drake Maye

4. Joe Burrow

5. Brock Purdy

6. Dak Prescott

7. Lamar Jackson

8. Patrick Mahomes

9. Jaxson Dart

   • The Giants did not give Dart a QB designed carry last game for the first time all year, and reports are that’ll be the case moving forward. If we remove all of those designed carries this year, Dart would have 18.9 fantasy points per game, equivalent to QB7 stats. He’ll still scramble very well, and the Giants have an elite matchup against the Commanders. Their team total sits at an above-average 24.0 points at home.

10. Jalen Hurts

11. Jared Goff

12. Trevor Lawrence

13. Baker Mayfield – 18.0 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

14. Marcus Mariota

15. Sam Darnold

16. Jordan Love

17. C.J. Stroud

18. Caleb Williams

19. Bo Nix

20. Justin Herbert

21. Jacoby Brissett

22. J.J. McCarthy

23. Bryce Young

24. Tyler Shough

25. Shedeur Sanders

26. Aaron Rodgers

27. Kirk Cousins – 13.5 fantasy points in Underdog Pick’em.

28. Tua Tagovailoa

29. Cam Ward

30. Kenny Pickett

31. Philip Rivers

32. Brady Cook

The top defenses are the Seahawks, Eagles, Jaguars, Texans, and Chiefs with honorable mentions to the 49ers, Cowboys, Bears, Steelers, Bucs, and Panthers.