The Buccaneers blew a chance to take control of the NFC South on Thursday. Kim Klement Neitzel / Getty Images
With a 29-28 loss to the Atlanta Falcons on “Thursday Night Football,” the Tampa Bay Buccaneers put their playoff hopes in jeopardy and made a path to the postseason a little clearer for a division rival.
After starting 5-1, the Bucs have lost six of their last eight games. Their Week 14 loss to the New Orleans Saints cost them their solo lead in the NFC South, tying them with the Carolina Panthers at 7-6.
Tampa Bay had a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs entering Thursday, per The Athletic’s playoff simulator, but a loss to the Falcons dips those odds to 53 percent. A win would have boosted the Bucs’ postseason odds to 80 percent and put them in a prime position to reclaim the division in the final weeks of the season. Now, a season that began with MVP talk for quarterback Baker Mayfield is fizzling into a disappointment.
As for the Falcons (5-9), they were eliminated from playoff contention after their Week 14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Instead, the Panthers were the other team with playoff implications at stake Thursday.
Carolina began Thursday with a 30 percent chance of making the postseason. The Bucs’ loss raises those odds to about 47 percent. The Panthers play the Saints on Sunday, and a win would give them a one-game lead over the Bucs in the division and boost their postseason odds to 67 percent. A loss would set them back to an 18 percent chance to make the playoffs.
If the Panthers win Sunday in New Orleans, their path becomes clear. They would win the NFC South so long as they win one of their two games with the Bucs over the season’s final three weeks. That scenario would give Carolina at least nine wins and clinch no worse than a tie for the division lead with Tampa Bay and the Panthers would win the tiebreaker by virtue of their division record. (In this scenario, Carolina would be no worse than 4-2 in the NFC South, and Tampa Bay would be no better than 3-3.)
Winning the NFC South is likely the only path to the postseason for either team in a crowded NFC playoff race. The NFC wild-card spots are occupied by the Seattle Seahawks (10-3), San Francisco 49ers (9-4) and Chicago Bears (9-4). The Detroit Lions (8-5) and Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1) are also in the hunt in the NFC playoff picture, and the Panthers and Bucs have less than a 1 percent chance at a wild-card berth.
The Athletic’s playoff simulator still slightly favors the Bucs hanging on and winning the division, but their margin for error is effectively gone.
