Ohio State has been waiting for two weeks to find out its Cotton Bowl opponent and finally got the answer Saturday afternoon when No. 10 Miami beat No. 7 Texas A&M 10-3 at Kyle Field.
The Hurricanes were led by a former Ohio State commit, running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who tallied 172 yards, in addition to a stingy defense that notched seven sacks and two crucial interceptions.
The Cotton Bowl, which will be the first of the four quarterfinals, will be played at 7:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 31 in Arlington, Texas. It will be the first time the two teams have met in the postseason since Ohio State beat the Hurricanes in the Fiesta Bowl to cap the 2002 season by claiming Ohio State’s first national championship in more than three decades.
BetMGM has made Ohio State a 10-point favorite, and The Athletic’s projections give the Buckeyes a 73 percent chance of winning. Can the Hurricanes pull off an upset in a matchup of two of the sport’s most recognizable brands? Or will Ohio State get back on track after its three-point loss to Indiana in the Big Ten title game?
Here are a few initial thoughts after a week of watching Miami film and a full season of covering Ohio State.
Malachi Toney is Miami’s ultimate chess piece
When watching Miami’s offense, Toney jumps off the screen. He’s not just the best freshman in the country; he’s one of the best all-purpose weapons, period.
Tony had a 55-yard punt return against Texas A&M on Saturday and scored the game’s only touchdown on a reverse. Those are two ways the Hurricanes get the ball in his hands, and there’s plenty more they do with him.
The 5-foot-11, 188-pound receiver has 89 catches for 992 yards and eight touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown, two passing touchdowns and an average of 15.8 yards per punt return. He’s an explosive player who can take a screen pass and break it into a big play if one defender is out of position or misses a tackle. He averages 7.3 yards after the catch, good for 64.5 percent of his output, per TruMedia. He makes a living taking short passes from quarterback Carson Beck and using his athleticism to create bigger plays.
Miami will also use him as a runner at times in its wildcat formation, and it’ll line him up as a running back and send him on routes out of the backfield. He’s even thrown seven passes this year, including throwing a deep ball against the Aggies.
As a receiver, he usually lines up in the slot, which makes him hard to stop because he’s so fast that he can get upfield on a deep crosser quickly, but he can also beat nickel corners and safeties over the top if they don’t have enough depth.
Ohio State has a versatile defense with a loaded secondary, but it must identify where Toney is at all times and rally to the ball when it’s in his hands. Miami’s offense is at its best when Beck has time to throw and the ball is getting to Toney. This will put a spotlight on Ohio State nickel Lorenzo Styles Jr.
Can Miami’s disruptive defense wreck Ohio State’s game plan?
Ohio State gave up just six sacks in 12 regular-season games, but the last time we saw it, it got burned to the tune of five sacks by the Hoosiers — the most allowed by the Buckeyes in a game since 2020.
Miami’s defensive line is just as good, and potentially better when adding in the versatility of defensive back Keionte Scott.
Up front, the Hurricanes have two future NFL Draft picks on the edge in Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. They were terrific against Texas A&M, combining for 4 1/2 sacks, with Bain leading the way with three.
Miami doesn’t just leave them on the edge and rush them there. If they have a matchup they like against a guard, the Canes have put them both on the same side, with one of the two playing defensive tackle. That makes them even more dangerous because it’s impossible to double them at that point.
As a team, Miami ranks seventh in pressure rate (40.1 percent) and 11th in sack rate (8.9 percent). The Hurricanes will get creative with their blitzes. They have the 30th-highest blitz rate at 33.4 percent, and when they do blitz, the extra player coming is often Scott. Per PFF, he has the second-most pass-rush snaps of any cornerback in the FBS, leading to the most pressures with 17.
He is fast through the hole, makes sound tackles and is athletic enough to chase quarterbacks down even if they avoid him. He returned from injury on Saturday and led Miami with 10 tackles and was second on the team with two sacks.
Ohio State’s offensive line will need a plan for the defensive front, but just like how opposing offenses always have to identify where Thorpe Award winner Caleb Downs is at all times, the Buckeyes will have to do the same with Scott.
Ohio State Heisman finalist Julian Sayin was sacked a season-high five times by Indiana. (Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
Which version of Beck will show up?
The quarterback play in Saturday’s first-round game was inconsistent, partly because of the high level of the defenses, but also because both Beck and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed have been uneven all season.
By the numbers, Beck is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the country. He’s completed 74.5 percent of his passes, second only to Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (78.4 percent), and when he has a clean pocket and the secondary picture is easily read, he can be deadly accurate. He’s especially accurate on short-yardage throws, giving his playmakers a chance to run after the catch.
But Beck has also thrown 10 interceptions, with six of those coming in Miami’s two losses, and he managed just 103 yards against Texas A&M.
The Georgia transfer is a smart quarterback, but there are times when the coverage shifts after the play, and he becomes locked onto a receiver, leading to a poor read. His second interception against Louisville was a bad read after a pump fake. The defensive back slightly bit on the fake, but not enough, and Beck decided to throw the deep ball anyway. On his final interception, which sealed the game for Louisville with under a minute left, the Cardinals faked a blitz, and a linebacker jumped out to the flat. Beck never saw him; he threw to the flat anyway, and the ball was intercepted.
Disguising coverages is something that Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia has been good at this season, and it will play a factor in the result of the Cotton Bowl.
Beck is also susceptible to pressure. Miami does a good job protecting him most occasions, leading the FBS in pressure rate allowed at just 16.1 percent. Right tackle Francis Mauigoa is one of the best in the country. But when Beck faces pressure, he completes only 53.7 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and three interceptions. His mechanics seem to disappear under pressure, which leads to some errant throws, especially downfield.
Beck can be the difference in this game. He doesn’t need to be a hero, but he can’t turn the ball over. For Ohio State, the goal is simply to confuse the senior quarterback with a defense that’s been dominant all season, giving up a paltry 8.2 points per game.
Plays are there to be made for Ohio State’s receivers
When Ohio State struggled in the Big Ten title game, it did so because it took too many deep shots without enough blocking upfront. Jeremiah Smith still had a good day with 144 yards on eight catches, but the offense didn’t sustain drives well until the second half.
Ohio State benched right guard Tegra Tshabola and tallied 151 yards on its final two drives. It didn’t take a sack on those drives, either. Part of that is due to Gabe VanSickle coming in and playing better than Tshabola, but Ohio State also started using its tight ends and underneath routes more. Sayin was 13-for-17 for 145 yards on those two drives alone.
If Ohio State has trouble with Miami’s front, it should be able to find success by getting Sayin out of the pocket to keep the pass rush off-guard. And when the time is there, Ohio State should be able to attack downfield.
Texas A&M had a 59-yard pass to Mario Craver, and there were other plays to be had that Reed couldn’t convert. Miami is giving up 195 passing yards per game, 30th nationally, but it isn’t immune to allowing big days to talented receivers. Louisville’s Chris Bell was unstoppable against the Hurricanes, totaling 136 yards and two touchdowns.
Ohio State has the talent to move the ball against Miami with Smith, Carnell Tate, Brandon Inniss and tight end Max Klare. The key will be giving Sayin time while also moving the pocket so the pass rush doesn’t have a direct line to him.
One thing to watch for is Miami’s aggressive secondary. The Hurricanes have 14 interceptions because they are opportunistic when the ball is in the air. That can lead to some coverage busts, but the talent is there to make plays. Much like Beck, Sayin must take care of the ball.
