Why Tom picked the Bears: Not because it was the easy choice, I’ll tell you that much. As we’ve explained multiple times since the postseason began, there are ample reasons to believe L.A. is best positioned to finish on top. It might even be kind of nice to see the narrative of this weird, wacky season subverted by a star QB and coach winning a title the old-fashioned way: by dominating opponents via their superior talent, game-planning and scheme.
That is not how the Bears, god love ’em, got here. Chicago’s thrilling ride to the second seed was built on gutsy rallies and narrow escapes, which makes it tricky to back this team in any given week, let alone against a well-rounded foe like the Rams in the playoffs. As exciting as it all was in retrospect, how, exactly, do you decide to predict a seat-of-the-pants victory?
Turns out: By chewing over potential scenarios in your head until, barely tethered to reality, you begin to see the ways this could spin into the kind of nail-biter that perfectly suits the Bears. First, there’s the setting. Normally, I’m not one to get too worked up about how a warm-weather team might fare in hostile temps. Matthew Stafford and Co. are pros’ pros who should be trusted in most situations. But we’re not merely talking about a little chilliness on Sunday. The forecast calls for a brutal wind chill and the kinds of arctic conditions that the Rams basically never see; their coldest game of the year was Week 13’s upset loss in Carolina, when the temperature at kickoff was 45 degrees. I can’t just ignore that, or the Bears’ 2-1 record under Caleb Williams when the temperature at kickoff is 20 or below.
Then we come to the bumpy closing stretch for the Rams, who went 4-3 in Weeks 12-18, during which the previously dominant defense — forced to operate without injured DB Quentin Lake — slid to 17th in EPA per play, one spot below the Bears in that span. Lake returned last week, but L.A. still surrendered 31 points to the Panthers. If that D continues to be closer to the Bears’ level, and both offenses are capped by the weather, then it’s reasonable to think we’re in for a close one — and that’s when I stare too long at the Bears’ superior record this season in one-score games (8-4, compared to 5-5 for L.A.).
Yes, the absences of left tackle Ozzy Trapilo and linebacker T.J. Edwards are concerning, but so is the finger injury Stafford suffered in his throwing hand last week. Might I be haunted by this pick, like I was by my ill-fated decision to back the scrappy Commanders over the objectively better Eagles in last year’s NFC title game? Sure. Then again, couldn’t I also be haunted if I picked the Rams, like I was by my decision last week to back the objectively better Eagles over the scrappy Niners? If a haunting is on the table no matter what, I might as well live my truth and throw in for some more Bears magic.
